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To put it objectively, polling analysis website 538, also known as FiveThirtyEight, gave Ms Harris a 2.9 point advantage as of Friday morning, smaller than the Guardian’s advantage, but within range. It’s within range. The site interpreted that Harris had a 58% chance of winning the November election, while Trump had a 42% chance.
It should be noted that while these numbers relate to national polls, the outcome of the election is almost certainly determined by who wins certain key battleground states under the American electoral system. That is what it means.
Nevertheless, the fact that Ms. Harris’ lead in national polls may be increasing, even by a small margin, could prove important.
Polls suggest Harris is likely to win the popular vote. Democratic candidates have won five of the past six presidential elections since the beginning of the 21st century, but Republicans have won two of those elections.
The first time was in 2000, when George W. Bush won the national vote by about 540,000 votes after weeks of legal battles to determine who won in Florida, where thousands of votes were at stake. He defeated Al Gore even though he was wearing one.
Most recently, Trump narrowly won the 2016 electoral vote in three blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, despite having about 2.7 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton nationally. won.
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The prospect of a repeat of the 2016 scenario is a recurring nightmare in the minds of many Democrats.
But CNN data analyst Harry Enten said her wide lead in national polls made Harris’ outlook more optimistic. Enten acknowledged that while the latest poll by his network showed a narrow one-point lead, other polls reflected a larger lead of as much as six points.
“We’re talking about these national polls, but the bottom line is it’s a race for 270 (electoral votes),” he said. “One way to understand this is, given the popular vote margin, what are Mr. Harris’ chances? So what are your chances of winning the Electoral College?”
Continuing the theme, Enten said that if the national vote was combined with the CNN poll that gave Harris a one-point lead, Trump would have an Electoral College advantage, but if she wins by a larger margin. They argued that this advantage would disappear if they won the national vote. This is suggested by other polls and reflected in the Guardian tracker.
“If you can model that and get some idea of where the CNN poll is, that’s one plus, but I think it’s going to go to Donald Trump in the Electoral College. “The chance of winning would be only 33%,” he said. “But if she closes in on the polling average by a plus-two to plus-three margin, Harris will become a slight favorite in the Electoral College.”
The longstanding assumptions underpinning that argument are shared by pollsters and party supporters alike, and are reinforced by President Trump’s win-loss feat in 2016, but Republicans are rightly in the electoral college. That means Democratic candidates need to win the popular vote. He voted by a wide margin to ensure he secured the 270 electoral votes essential to victory.
Nate Cohn, chief polling analyst for the New York Times, argued there is evidence that the Republican Party’s advantage is eroding.
Counterintuitively, Mr. Cohn detected this trend in a New York Times-Siena poll. As a result, Harris and Trump are tied at 47% nationally, while the Democratic candidate has a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important battleground state.
“There is growing evidence of a surprising possibility that[Trump’s]once formidable advantage in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many assumed; in fact, it is shrinking. “There is a possibility that it is,” Cohn argued.
He continued: “Based on New York Times polling averages, Kamala Harris doesn’t necessarily need to win the popular vote by a large amount to win.”
The reason for this is roughly summarized: While Harris maintains narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (three states enough to win the coveted 270 electoral votes for vice president) And Trump has better support in each state than he did four years ago. He still has little chance of winning.
“Meanwhile, Ms. Harris holds her own in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” Cohn wrote, while warning that her lead was “tenuous.” “The second part of the explanation is that, strangely enough, Trump has gained in non-competitive states like New York, improving his position in the national popular vote without gaining support in the most important states. There is.”
With just over five weeks until Election Day, nothing can predict the final outcome. But that may just suggest a scenario in which the candidate slated to take the White House receives the most votes. After all, that’s what democracy is supposed to be about.
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