Harris vs. Trump: Who is leading in presidential polls?

There are only two weeks left until the showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

Several voter registration deadlines have come and gone, but it’s never too late to register to vote in some states.

In Texas and Florida, new polls show Trump leading by less than 10 points. But in one red state, key Republican senators are under threat from Democratic candidates.

Overall, the race is heating up, and opinion polls are showing mixed results. The outcome of the election is anyone’s game.

According to the latest Washington Post poll, neither candidate leads by more than a few points in seven battleground states.

So what will happen to Harris and Trump in November?

The average of the latest national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 1.7 percentage points. On average, Ms. Harris slightly outperforms Mr. Trump, but that gap has narrowed in the last month.

With two weeks left, the polls tell a mixed story. Atlas Intel’s poll through October 17 shows Mr. Trump leading by +3 points, and yesterday’s Morning Consult poll shows Ms. Harris leading by +4 points among likely voters.

The Independent’s Washington, DC correspondent, John Borden, reports that after Ms Harris’ honeymoon approval ratings soared, the election was now “really a nobody’s game”.

Meanwhile, the latest poll from Emerson College confirms that Trump is leading in red states Texas and Florida.

Trump’s 7- and 8-point leads (respectively) are weaker than predicted earlier this year. However, polls show that Trump (49%) has a higher approval rating among women than Harris (47%) in Florida, a success for the Republican Party, which has garnered a large number of votes from women across the country.

It seems very likely that both states will remain red, but the Senate race is another matter.

In Texas, where former presidential candidate Ted Cruz is defending his Senate seat, Democrat Colin Allred is the de facto tiebreaker by just one point.

This is a concern for Republicans, according to an internal memo discussed below.

Independent voters in Texas favor Mr. Allred (47%) over Mr. Cruz (42%). The presidential race is leaning toward Trump over Harris by two points.

In Florida, incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott leads Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by just four points, with 8% of voters still undecided.

battleground states

Another large Washington Post/Schar School poll of 5,000 registered voters found Harris leading Trump by just one point.

According to polls conducted in the first two weeks of October, Ms. Harris received 49% of the vote and Mr. Trump received 48%.

This close race is also reflected in battleground states.

In seven key states, neither candidate leads voters within the margin of error, even in the final stages of the campaign.

The two candidates are neck and neck in Nevada, but Trump leads in Arizona and North Carolina, and Harris leads in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In battleground states, the poll found that 37% of registered voters would “definitely” support Harris, while 37% would support Trump.

Meanwhile, 10% of voters in battleground states said they would “probably” support Trump or Harris. That means 1 in 5 votes are still uncommitted.

Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll found that nearly one in five voters (17%) said they had decided who to vote for in the past month.

These voters were more likely to have decided to vote for Harris (60%) than Trump (36%). Despite this, Harris’ national lead has gone down, not up.

Important issues for swing voters

The economy has consistently topped the list of important issues for voters this election.

A Washington Post poll of voters in battleground states also found that health care and threats to democracy topped the list of factors in deciding who is the next president.

Mr. Trump has advocated for overhauling Obamacare, but failed in his attempts during his presidency, and was unable to outline an alternative health care policy during September’s presidential debate.

Immigration ranks high as a deciding factor in this election, with exclusive independent polling showing that candidates’ immigration policies matter greatly to Latino voters.

Interestingly, climate change ranks last on the list of priorities for voters in swing states this year.

Climate change is barely on the agenda this election, with Harris and Walz largely silent on the issue, and Trump and Vance actively denying it.

Recent devastating hurricanes have once again brought climate change to the forefront. However, President Trump incorrectly stated in his Oct. 1 speech that “the Earth has actually gotten a little cooler lately.”

demographics

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris with a 3-point lead at 49% and Trump at 46%.

Harris’ strongest support base remains young voters and voters of non-white backgrounds. Trump’s main base is white non-college voters.

Unfortunately for the Trump campaign, the poll suggests that older generations of voters are no longer staunch Republicans.

For both Gen

In fact, Mr. Trump’s lead was just 1 and 2 points, within a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4, effectively making the two candidates tied across both groups.

It remains to be seen how this will change in the final stages, but Republicans have won in the defined 65 and over demographic in every election since 2000.

Additionally, nearly one in 10 Republicans (9%) are likely to vote for Harris, abandoning the party’s policy.

In a survey of 898 Republicans conducted in early October, 9% said they would vote for Harris next month. The same poll in September showed it at 5%.

The gender gap between Trump and Harris voters remains strong, with women leaning to the left and men leaning to the right.

Republicans struggle in Senate elections

Republicans are currently concerned about the Senate race, according to internal polling memos obtained by Politico.

The memo reveals that according to the party’s own polling, Republican candidates are trailing Democrats in seven of the nine key Senate seats, and this data is largely confirmed by polling. are. These seats are in Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“We still have a lot of work to do to maximize our gains in this important Senate race (…) and we must also protect the aspects,” said Stephen Law, author of the memo and director of the Senate Leadership Fund. is writing.

The memo also warns that strongholds such as Nebraska and Texas could be at risk from independent or Democratic candidates.

“We are committed to this fight, so we will not look back with regrets,” the memo concluded.

Florida polls shaky

Opinion polls have been a focus of increased attention in Florida in recent weeks, with the prospect of Harris narrowing Trump’s lead in her home state.

In particular, in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago and several leading Republicans, Mr. Trump won 50% of the vote and Mr. Harris won 50% of the vote, according to statistics from RMG Research, a historically Republican polling organization. It received 48%.

However, according to the latest New York Times poll, Mr. Trump leads in the Sunshine State by a huge margin of 13 points, 55% to Ms. Harris’ 41%.

Although this is inconsistent with some recent polls conducted in the state, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn suggested that the poll was not an outlier, and that It is stated as follows. Trump had an advantage in states where Republicans performed well in the 2022 midterm elections, such as Florida. As a result, this poll is no ordinary outlier. ”

“If Florida becomes more solidly Republican in 2024, it would signal that the turmoil during and after the pandemic has had a lasting impact on American politics.”

Vance wins vice presidential debate and gains popularity

The debate between Senator Vance of Ohio and Governor Walz of Minnesota defied expectations. Gambling markets and preliminary polls are pointing to Waltz as the presumptive winner.

Not only did Vance “win” the debate, his performance seemed to do wonders for public perception, which had been suffering for months.

Pre-debate analysis found that Walz outperformed Trump, Vance and even Harris in favorability ratings.

According to the latest YouGov poll, Vance’s favorability rating rose by 11 points in the debate.

This puts Vance in a neutral position, but before the debate voters had an overall unfavorable opinion of him by -11 percentage points.

Most interestingly, Vance’s favorability rating among Democrats increased by an astonishing +19 points. However, overall, he still has a net negative score of -52% among this group.

Mr Walz’s approval rating also rose modestly by three points, with his favorability rating reaching 15% in a YouGov poll.

Although Walz’s performance did not win the debate, he remained the most popular candidate, and his favorability among independent voters improved after the debate.

However, although he lost support from 7% of voters within his own party, he ultimately remained in a positive position with a 72% approval rating for the Democratic Party.

A post-debate snap poll showed viewers divided between the candidates, with Vance leading by several points.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42% of viewers thought Vance would win the debate, compared to 41% for Walz.

But Mr. Walz emerged as someone more relatable to average Americans and more likely to share voters’ vision of America.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist poll shows Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters at 47%, to Trump’s 44%. The poll showed Harris with a 25-point lead among young voters under 29.

However, according to the same poll, younger generations are the least likely to vote, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they “may vote,” and 3 percent saying they would not vote or I replied that I was still unsure. .

This equates to 16 percent who are unsure about voting or have not voted, higher than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65% ​​of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they were sure to vote in November.

This compares to 77% of those aged 30 to 44, 85% of those aged 45 to 64, and 94% of those aged 65 and older.

While the numbers may seem dismal and represent a degree of hesitation among young voters, the big picture is that there is far more interest than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third (27%) of young people are not keen to vote in November, with 10% saying they “might” vote. 17% said they would definitely/probably not vote. vote.