CNN
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Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have made promises to voters, from making housing and health care more affordable to supporting manufacturing and cutting taxes for millions of Americans. The list continues to grow.
But these proposals come with a hefty price tag, and the candidates have not disclosed how they will fully cover their costs, a new analysis finds. As a result, no matter who wins the election, the national debt will increase by trillions of dollars, further exacerbating the country’s fiscal problems.
Harris’ plan would increase the debt by $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years, while President Trump’s policies would cause it to jump by $7.5 trillion, according to a report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released Monday. That’s what it means.
The watchdog group’s analysis is the latest in a series of reviews of the candidates’ plans, finding that Mr. Trump’s proposals generally have a bigger impact on the national debt than Ms. Harris’. The committee notes that because neither candidate has submitted detailed proposals, its estimates are subject to extensive uncertainty and involve many assumptions. The analysis is based on official campaign announcements and websites, white papers, social media posts, speeches, discussions with campaign staff, and similar proposals in the president’s budget proposal.
Due to the lack of a detailed platform, the Commission provided various cost estimates in its analysis. It determined that Harris’ actions may not have a material impact on the debt or could increase it by $8.1 trillion. And under Mr. Trump’s proposal, the debt could rise from $1.5 trillion to $15.2 trillion. It’s also difficult to determine how Americans and businesses are likely to change their behavior if these policies are enacted. Almost all require parliamentary approval.
Neither Harris nor Trump have talked about reducing the nation’s heavy debt, despite repeated statements by both Republicans and Democrats in Congress that they want to rein in the country’s current $35.7 trillion debt. However, the federal government continues to spend more than it receives, and the debt continues to rise rapidly. Many experts, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, say the United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path.
“We already spend more on interest than we do on Medicare and defense, and this high debt is really crowding out everything else,” Mark Goldwein, the committee’s senior policy director, told CNN. It’s tucked away,” he said. “It crowds out private sector investment, which slows economic growth. It crowds out public sector spending, leaving less room to pay for other priorities.”
The most expensive item on the vice president’s platform is extending the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for people making less than $400,000 a year, which the committee says would cost $3 trillion. That’s what it means. The law’s personal income tax and inheritance tax provisions expire at the end of 2025.
This will be followed by an expansion of the child tax credit and earned income tax credit (with a $1.4 trillion price tag) and an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies (an additional $550 billion). .
The committee also includes Harris’ proposals to support affordable housing, manufacturers and small businesses. Eliminate tax on tips. Improving border security. Strengthen the education and care economy, including establishing a national paid family and medical leave program. These proposals would cost a total of $2.3 trillion.
(For some of these items, the committee used measures included in the Biden administration’s budget and package as models, since Harris has not released more detailed policies.)
Harris plans to partially offset the platform’s costs by increasing corporate and capital gains rates to 28% each, as well as other taxes on wealthy Americans and large corporations, but these measures It is not expected that the full amount will be covered. The committee expects Biden to propose many of the revenue-raising provisions in President Joe Biden’s budget, as his campaign has expressed support for them.
The former president wants to extend nearly every provision of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, one of the signature accomplishments of his first term. But he said certain other measures would raise prices even further, such as eliminating the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions and allowing companies to immediately deduct investments in equipment and research. I will. In total, it would cost about $5.4 trillion.
Trump also promised to cut the corporate tax rate on domestic manufacturing to 15% and eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. These measures would reduce revenue by $3.8 trillion.
The committee’s list also includes strengthening the military, securing borders and deporting illegal immigrants, implementing housing reform, and increasing support for health care, long-term care, and long-term care.
President Trump wants to impose new tariffs — 10% or 20% on all foreign imports into the U.S. and an additional 60% or more on all Chinese imports. He has repeatedly said that imposing tariffs would cover the cost of his proposals.
But the committee estimates that these tariffs would generate benefits of between $2 trillion and $4.3 trillion over 10 years, which is not enough to cover President Trump’s policies.
Additionally, there are trade-offs. Most economists agree that tariffs increase the prices Americans pay for imported goods. That’s because it’s usually American companies that import the goods and pay the duties. That cost can be passed on to consumers.
A flat 10% tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would cost the average middle-class household about $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And the Tax Policy Center said the impact could be $1,350 a year for middle-income households.
Another trade-off would be retaliatory tariffs. Analysts predict that other countries will almost certainly impose their own tariffs on U.S. products. The trade war could slow the U.S. economy and curb government revenue.
President Trump also promised to expand energy production, eliminate the Department of Education, and eliminate waste, fraud and abuse. These measures would raise or save approximately $1.1 trillion, the committee found.
CNN’s Katie Lobosco and Matt Egan contributed to this report.
