Opinion polls in Iowa have shocked U.S. pollsters by unexpectedly showing Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in a state previously expected to be safe for Republicans.
A Selzer poll conducted for the Des Moines Register found Harris leading her Republican rival by three points.
Midwest Iowa is one of seven swing states in the 2024 election, consisting of the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. isn’t it.
Political experts and pollsters are very wary of getting too attached to a single poll, but Selzer has an excellent track record in Iowa and is a widely respected pollster. It is an institution. If Harris is competitive in Iowa, a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, the race could be fundamentally reshaped.
The Selzer poll shows Harris holding Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump leading Harris by 4 points, and a June poll showed him leading then-candidate Joe Biden by 18 points.
“I don’t think anyone can say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Company, told the Register. “She has clearly risen to a leading position.”
Opinion polls showed that women in the state are pushing for a late shift to Harris. If this is true and confirmed more broadly, it would be significant as the Harris campaign is focused on the female vote amid a wide gender gap with Republican male voters. Harris and her campaign have focused on overturning federal abortion rights by the conservative-controlled U.S. Supreme Court.
The reaction from experts and pollsters was mostly shock and surprise, although a rival polling group also noted that Trump still has a lead in Iowa.
“This is an amazing poll. But Ann Seltzer (sic) has the best track record as a pollster of predicting election results in this state. “It bodes well for the country,” said David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s former chief of staff.
Iowa poll: Kamala Harris leads in state won twice by Donald Trump
This is an amazing poll. But Ann Seltzer has the best track record of pollsters predicting the state’s election results.
Women are driving this surge. Omen for the country?? https://t.co/CNJfcQKXja— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 2, 2024
“So the margin of error exists, polls can be outliers, and I don’t think Harris will win in Iowa, but Selzer is very highly regarded, especially against Harris who has been in the news.” If that’s the case, a close race in Iowa is not impossible.” Washington Post columnist Philip Bump said.
Yes, I mean, there’s a margin of error, polls can be outliers, and I don’t think Harris will win Iowa, but Selzer is highly regarded and especially in the press. If the late shift to Harris is true, it means a close race in Iowa is not impossible. . https://t.co/V5ZTqyDPas
— Philip Bump (@pbump) November 2, 2024
Mr. Selzer is the highest rated pollster in a national survey conducted by poll guru Nate Silver, one of the most watched pollsters in the United States.
“If Harris wins Iowa, she will probably win other parts of the Midwest, especially Michigan and Wisconsin,” Silver wrote on her website. It is already almost certain that he will win the electorate.”
But he also cautioned that another poll released Saturday in Iowa still showed Trump in the lead. Mr. Emerson’s poll showed the former US president 9 points ahead of Ms. Harris in the state.
“It takes an incredible amount of courage to release this poll. Harris is not ahead in our projections today, as polls in Iowa favored President Trump. “You wouldn’t want to play poker with Selzer,” Silver said.
This likely won’t lead to premature celebrations for many Democrats.
“Let’s celebrate the seltzer poll for 90 seconds and get back to work. We have an election to win,” said former Democratic House candidate Christopher Hale of Tennessee.
