Global warming limit of 1.5 degrees will be exceeded for the first time in 2024

New data shows the planet is one big step closer to warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, despite world leaders vowing a decade ago to avoid it.

The European Copernicus Climate Service, one of the major global data providers, announced on Friday that 2024 was the first calendar year to exceed the symbolic threshold, making it the world’s hottest year on record.

This does not mean that the international 1.5 degree target has been met. Because this refers to a long-term average over several decades. But as fossil fuel emissions continue to heat the atmosphere, we are no doubt closer to achieving it.

Last week, UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the recent string of temperature records as “climate change.”

“We must get out of this path to destruction, and we have no time to lose,” he said in his New Year’s message, urging countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. I called out.

According to Copernicus data, the average global temperature in 2024 was about 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution (before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels).

This is just over 0.1 degrees above the record set in 2023, making the past 10 years the warmest on record.

The Japan Meteorological Agency, NASA and other climate groups are expected to release their own data later on Friday. Although there is some variation in the exact numbers, everyone is expected to agree that 2024 was the warmest year on record.

Last year’s heat was largely due to human emissions of global warming gases such as carbon dioxide, which remain at record high levels.

Natural weather patterns such as El Niño, when surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become abnormally warm, did not play a major role.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, told the BBC: “The biggest factor influencing our climate is by far the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

The 1.5 degree figure has become a powerful symbol in international climate negotiations since it was agreed in Paris in 2015, and many of the most vulnerable countries consider it a matter of life and death.

A landmark 2018 United Nations report found that the risks from climate change, such as severe heatwaves, rising sea levels and declining wildlife, are far greater if temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius than by 1.5 degrees Celsius. It is said that the price will increase.

But the world is moving closer and closer to breaking the 1.5 degree barrier.

“Exactly when we will exceed the long-term temperature threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius is difficult to predict, but we are clearly very close now,” said Miles Allen, from the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics.

On the current trajectory, the world could see long-term warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the early 2030s. While this is politically important, it does not mean it is game over for climate action.

“This doesn’t mean 1.49 degrees Celsius is OK and 1.51 degrees Celsius is the end. Every tenth of a degree is important, and the climate impacts will get progressively worse as the world warms,” ​​says Berkeley Earth Climate Science. explains Sieg Hausfather. US.

Even a small increase in global warming could lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rains.

In 2024, the world will experience extreme temperatures in West Africa, prolonged drought in parts of South America, heavy rainfall in Central Europe, and particularly strong tropical cyclones that hit North America and South Asia. Ta.

These are just some of the phenomena that have been exacerbated by climate change over the past year, according to the World Weather Attribution group.

Even this week, when the new numbers were released, Los Angeles remains in the throes of devastating wildfires caused by strong winds and a lack of rain.

While there are many contributing factors to this week’s events, experts say a warming world is making California more prone to fire conditions.

Temperatures aren’t the only thing breaking records in 2024. Global sea levels are also hitting new highs every day, and the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere has reached record levels.

It’s no surprise that the world is breaking new records. In addition to anthropogenic warming, 2024 was expected to be consistently hot due to the El Niño weather pattern that ended around April last year.

But the margins in some recent records have been less expected, and some scientists worry that this may indicate accelerating warming.

“I think it’s safe to say that the temperatures in both 2023 and 2024 surprised most climate scientists. We never expected a year to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius this soon,” Hausfather said. says the doctor.

Helge Gössling, a climate physicist at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, said: “Since 2023, on top of what is expected from climate change and El Niño, there has been an extra 0.2 degrees of warming that cannot be fully explained.” I agree. .

Various theories have been proposed to explain this “extra” warmth, including an apparent reduction in low-level cloud cover, which tends to cool the Earth, and prolonged ocean heating after the end of El Niño.

“The question is whether this acceleration is permanent, related to human activity, meaning even more rapid warming will occur in the future, or is it part of natural variability?” Dr. Goessling added.

“It’s very difficult to say at this point.”

Despite this uncertainty, scientists stress that humans can still control the future climate and can reduce the effects of warming by significantly reducing emissions.

“Even if 1.5 degrees were the limit, we could probably limit temperature rise to 1.6, 1.7 or 1.8 degrees this century,” Dr. Hausfather said.

“This is much better than continuing to burn coal, oil and gas and ending up at 3C or 4C. But it’s still really important.”