Georgia protests against EU membership. Here’s what you need to know:

Georgians have been protesting in the streets following the government’s announcement that the country’s accession to the European Union will be suspended until at least 2028.

The protests come amid a larger global power struggle over the country’s place in the world order. Protesters are calling for a more democratic society in line with Western countries, as well as the European Union and the United States. Meanwhile, the ruling Georgian Dream party is suppressing liberal democracy while aligning the country more closely with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Over the past year, Georgian Dream has taken many undemocratic actions. These include crackdowns on LGBTQ people, civil society, and the press. These laws, along with potentially tainted parliamentary elections in October, are pushing the country further away from European-style liberal democracy and toward authoritarianism, protesters say. I am concerned about this.

The stakes for Georgia’s democracy are high. Georgian Dream appears to have decided that it needs to adopt authoritarian tactics to maintain its hold on power, and its plans to join the EU represent an important and strong barrier to this. Joining the EU and NATO is also popular among Georgians, which is why there are currently large and controversial protests in the capital Tbilisi and other major cities.

The question now is whether Georgia’s democracy can continue to pivot towards Europe and the West, or whether its fate is aligned with that of Belarus, an Eastern European nation allied with Russia ruled by dictator Alexander Lukashenko. The question is, will it become?

Sam Green, director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Georgian Dream’s recent departure from European liberal democracies could be a boon for Russia.

“The Russian government may see Georgia as a test case to show that it can maintain regional hegemony even after significant depredations, including nearly three years of punitive invasions of Ukraine,” Green said. he said. “They may believe that their ability to maintain loyalty to Georgia is a harbinger of what may happen to Ukraine, but I think they are wrong. What is likely to be the case is that they see this as a positive light on the EU.”

But while Georgia’s current political crisis is embroiled in conflicts with Russia and the West, the situation is complicated by internal struggles for democracy.

The battle for Georgia’s place in the world

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on Thursday that his government would suspend EU accession negotiations until 2028, and Georgia would also refuse all EU funding until then. Georgia’s constitution requires government officials to work toward EU membership, and some have resigned in protest of Kobakhidze’s decision.

However, the EU had already ended these talks in June after the government enacted two relevant laws. First, it drastically reduced LGBTQ rights, including the end of same-sex marriage, the right for same-sex couples to adopt, and the portrayal of LGBTQ people in the media. The second targeted non-governmental organizations and independent news organizations.

Both laws are similar to Russian laws and severely restrict the right to protest and organize, as well as the independent flow of information.

“The protests in Georgia…are against an authoritarian, anti-Western, Putin-style form of governance that seeks to rally popular support through populism, conservatism, and appeals to traditional values.” ” Natalie Savanadze, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the British think tank Chatham House, told Vox. “Basically, it’s anti-Western, anti-liberal, one-party rule with a fake opposition, and everyone else either leaves the country or goes to jail.”

The United States reacted strongly to the suspension of accession negotiations. “By halting Georgia’s EU accession process, the Georgian Dream denied Georgia the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia even more vulnerable to the Kremlin,” the State Department said in a statement. “Georgians overwhelmingly support integration with Europe.”

The EU’s response has been less resolute. The EU “deplores” the Georgian government’s decision to suspend the negotiation process and halt funding to the EU, but the statement so far did not outline the implications of Kobakhidze’s decision. There is no indication of how the EU and the Georgian dream will survive this crisis if the doors actually open. The path to EU membership remains open. Savanadze said this shows a lack of agreement and a lack of leadership on the EU side.

A lack of clarity and consensus in the face of growing illiberalism and democratic backsliding weakens its position in the world, Savanadze said. “In my view, this is a huge blow to the EU as a normative and transformative power, which has always been part of its identity,” she said.

It’s not just about Russia versus the West.

Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but has not made a complete transition to a consolidated democratic system. There are elections, and there has historically been scope for opposition and freedom of expression, especially against the government’s more authoritarian excesses. However, the government and its institutions are in the character of a hybrid regime, one that uses democratic processes to consolidate power in the interests of a select few.

The decision to move to the EU and NATO was initially a pragmatic one, aimed at protecting Georgia’s sovereignty, which had become unstable, especially after the rise of Putin’s regime. Russia invaded in 2008, destabilizing the country’s democratic transition.

The country’s aspirations to join the EU require democratic reforms such as increasing judicial independence, combating disinformation and tackling political polarization, all of which will help it stay in power. It is not in the interest of the government to strengthen its dictatorship. Georgian Dream has changed significantly in its 12 years in power, moving from a progressive multiparty coalition to a right-wing party led by a billionaire who has threatened to ban opposition parties. The Georgian Dream became increasingly unpopular as it moved to the right, consolidated power, and failed to improve the material conditions of Georgians. Controlling state institutions and polarizing voters with extremist disinformation are part of the path to staying in power.

But some see Russia as increasingly interfering in Georgia’s affairs, especially after October’s contentious parliamentary elections. External and internal election observers have reported voting irregularities, and protesters and opposition politicians have called for new elections.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean Russia is pushing Georgia toward authoritarianism, Green and Savanadze said. “The Georgian Dream also seeks to maintain power within the country.” Ta.

“I often say that the government is pro-Russian, and it may not necessarily be intentional, but it is definitely its influence,” Savanadze said. “In other words, the effect of this will be to strengthen Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and give Russia a more comfortable and business-friendly structure.But what is motivating the Georgian dream? Whether it is necessarily love for Russia, proximity to Russia, or rather love of power, the ability and the need to stay there and lead Georgia in a different direction, it is a more complex issue Honestly.