The ceasefire in Gaza appears to have ended.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to blame Hamas for resuming the battle that killed more than 400 Palestinians on March 18, 2025 – “Only the beginning,” Netanyahu warned.
Since the first phase of the ceasefire came into effect in January, Israeli political experts (including myself) have flagged insurmountable issues. And it is the implementation of the second phase of the plan – if implemented, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip entirely in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages is a non-starter of the far-right element in the Israeli ruling coalition, in which Netanyahu relies on his political survival.
The withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is against the biggest ideology of key members of the Netanyahu government. Rather, their stated position is for Israel to continue to control the enclave and push as many Palestinians out of it. That’s why many people in the Netanyahu government cheered when President Donald Trump pointed out that Palestinians should be cleared out of Gaza and gave way to a massive US-led reconstruction project.
As an expert on Israeli history and professor of peace studies, I think the far-right vision of post-conflict Gaza shared by some of Netanyahu’s government is incompatible with the ceasefire plan. But it appears to be increasingly chimes in some opinions of the US administration. This could have been the only one who could have bound the Israeli government to its terms as the de facto sponsor of the ceasefire.
Efforts to change the judiciary
It is true that Hamas is responsible for delays and operations in the first phase of the ceasefire transaction. It also turned hostage releases into propaganda glasses, causing much of the prisoners of war and Israeli society in the process.
However, in my view, the resumption of the war was linked to the Israeli tide before October 7, 2023, and is linked to the attack that caused the most deadly battle between Israelis and Palestinians since the 1948 war. It can be traced back to Netanyahu’s efforts to transform Israel’s political system and to enhance the power of the executive and legislative sector while undermining the judiciary.
Washington Post by Demetrius Freeman/Getty Images
Since taking power in January 2023, Netanyahu’s solid government has made great efforts to turn independent bodies, such as the Attorney General’s Office and police, into government obedient weapons, seeking to place government loyalists in both personnel.
Extend the war
In 2023, sustained, massive protests have slowed Netanyahu’s attempts to overhaul the judicial system.
And then, on October 7th, the Hamas massacre came.
Many Israeli commentators hoped the attack would force the government to rethink their efforts to carry out what is called a legal coup in the show of national unity.
However, Netanyahu and his government had other plans.
After the first hostage contract in November 2023 failed to bring about a broader breakthrough, people gradually began to question whether Netanyahu’s main interest was to extend the war of belief that doing so was the best way to save his political career and revive his attacks on the judiciary.
There is a solid foundation for this view. Netanyahu, who was charged with trust, fraud and corruption in November 2019, was given the opportunity to muddy the logic of long-term legal proceedings. Prosecutors are still ongoing, but the resumption of the battle meant that Netanyahu had reason to delay his testimony.
Meanwhile, the war offers covers for Netanyahu to castrate some of the most intense critics. A few months after the October 7 attack, Netanyahu systematically removed it from the offices of security and political leadership from hostile members, accusing him of being responsible for either Hamas’ attacks or mismanagement of the conflict.
This cleanup of Israel’s anti-Netanyahu elements has been intensified in recent months, with Netanyahu and his allies seeking replacements for Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara and Fire Rohnen Bar, head of powerful security agencies Shabak or Singbet, who conduct sensitive investigations to aides near Netanyov.
Reinforce the Union
The obvious breakdown of the ceasefire is also consistent with increasing pressure on Netanyahu from political rights in his ruling coalition.
Under Israeli law, the government must approve the annual budget or disband the face by the end of March. This will spark new elections.
However, Netanyahu faces holdouts among ultra-orthodox political parties on the issue of draft Army. Since the start of the war, there has been great pressure from the wider Israeli people to end the proposed exemption for ultra-Orthodox men who, unlike other Israelis, did not have to serve the army. However, ultra-Orthodox parties demand the opposite. That would be to pass a law that would officially exempt from military service.
Netanyahu needs support to secure votes for the annual budget and quit the election. And if it doesn’t come from an ultra-orthodox political party, he needs to strengthen the far-right members of the Union.
As a result of the resumption of the war, Otzma Yehudit, a far-right party that left Netanyahu’s government in January, was folded to protest the ceasefire agreement – returned to the crease. This gives Netanyahu an important budget vote. However, in reality, it shows that the Union has implemented a second phase of its ceasefire plan and has no intention of retreating from Gaza. In effect, it killed a ceasefire.
Israeli-only domestic politics is not about blame for resuming combat. There is also a changing attitude of the US administration.
The transition of the presidency from Joe Biden to Donald Trump was a critical reason for the timing of the January 2025 ceasefire agreement.
However, the administration appears to be reluctant to force Netanyahu to continue to the second stage. A recent statement from Trump suggests he supports putting extra military pressure on Hamas in Gaza. And by denounced Hamas on the resumption of war, Trump implicitly supports the status of the Israeli government.
In fact, Hamas is most interested in implementing the contract. In doing so, Palestinian extremist groups have the best chance to continue to control Gaza, while also being in charge of the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.
Yair Palti/Anadolu via Getty Images
Protests to gain momentum
Most Israelis are in favor of ending the war, completing the ceasefire agreement and resigning Netanyahu.
And the anti-government protests are once again steaming, as seen in the widespread protests of Israeli cities, both against the resumption of the fight in Gaza and the attempt to drive out security chief Ronen Bar.
Given the apparent pull of Israeli people and government in opposite directions, the resumption of bombing in Gaza can only exacerbate the internal crisis that preceded the war and has declined and flowed ever since.
However, Netanyahu appears to be bet that more wars are his best chance to maintain power and complete his plans to transform the country’s political system. Israel faces an unprecedented situation, and I would argue that its own prime minister has become the biggest threat to the country’s stability.
