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December 16, 2024
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From Bucharest: Why did Romanian politics suddenly go sideways?
BUCHAREST—It is never a good thing for a presidential election to be invalidated. But that’s exactly what happened in Romania, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), earlier this month.
Late last week in Bucharest, I witnessed how Romania’s political class is shaken by the sudden rise of Karin Georgescu. This is especially true for many pro-Western and liberal-minded Romanians. On November 24, Georgescu, officially a fringe mystical nationalist, won the most votes in the first presidential election. Then, just before the second round of elections, the Romanian Constitutional Court announced that the results of the first round would be annulled. The court’s decision is based on a declassified Romanian government assessment of foreign (Russian) election interference, including the use of the social media platform TikTok to promote Georgescu. U.S. intelligence officials privately confirmed to me that the allegations were credible. Still, there is abundant evidence that Russia interfered in elections in Europe and the United States. Prior to Romania, no country had canceled a presidential election for this reason.
In contrast, Romania’s parliamentary elections were held successfully on December 1st. In the parliamentary elections, three centrist parties performed well: the center-right Freedom Party, the center-left Social Democratic Party, and Hungary’s fourth minority party. Liberal Party. These four parties are currently negotiating to form a new coalition government. Politicians who visited Bucharest with him said a coalition government was likely to be announced before Christmas. The new government will then need to re-hold the canceled presidential elections, likely early next year. Outgoing President Klaus Iohannis will likely remain in office until then.
In Romania, there is a widespread perception, accurate or not, that the regime is focused on itself.
The twin shocks of Gheorgescu’s rise and the annulment of the presidential election shook Romania’s hitherto complacent centrists. Accusations of Russian interference (and attempted sabotage) are plausible, given that the Kremlin conducts such activities throughout the West, but Georgeszsk’s popularity is not simply a foreign import. The rise of a person considered a fringe figure even by his fellow nationalists from near-obscurity to a leading candidate for president within a few weeks is a sign of the rise of a Romanian who has been in and out of control of government. It speaks to widespread social dissatisfaction with centrist parties. For years.
My Romanian interlocutors expressed bewilderment and even shame at the court’s decision to invalidate the election, agreeing that it set a terrible precedent for the country and the region. They also believe that centrist parties have lost touch with Romanian society and its cultural and economic grievances, and to elaborate, the grievances of unhappy right-wing voters in Germany (particularly the former East Germany), France, and France. He also admitted that it sounded the same. America in a sense. In Romania, whether accurate or not, there is a perception that the regime is focusing on itself rather than on the problems faced by ordinary people, and that traditional national values and even national sovereignty are being lost. It is widespread.
More thoughtful liberals believe that Georgescu’s rise is effectively a protest vote against centrist complacency and a vote against the candidate’s bizarre brand of nationalism and Romanian fascist nostalgia. He told me no. Their answer, they say, was for the incoming coalition government to put new people in the positions of prime minister and president, rather than discredited old ones. But an astute leader of a nationalist party was skeptical. He told me that it was impossible for a centrist party to sideline its own leaders and support a new team. That’s not their operating style, he argued, and predicted they would once again aim to be status quo leaders.
Between domestic politics, the Russian threat in neighboring Ukraine, and concerns about the direction of U.S. foreign policy under the incoming Trump administration, most Romanians I spoke to were nervous. Nevertheless, they focused on future measures to limit the damage caused to Romania’s democracy by the annulled presidential election. To that end, they said the task ahead is to quickly and reliably re-hold presidential elections and swiftly address the political grievances that drove Georgescu. Some Romanian politicians I spoke to even seemed ready to consider bringing a newcomer to the top of the next government.
This may be easier said than done. It is unclear whether Georgescu will be allowed to compete, given various irregularities in his campaign, including his claims that he did not spend any money on his campaign. If his candidacy is not approved, the credibility of the re-held presidential election will be questioned at home and abroad. If he is allowed to compete, he will be able to win. In that case, a nationalist president and a centrist government could quickly find themselves at odds. The resulting political paralysis could impede governance and further heighten social discontent.
Political tensions in Romania come against the backdrop of a successful overall transformation after decades of communist rule. Romania’s communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu was oppressive and economically incompetent even by communist standards. When Romanians overthrew his rule in a swift (and violent) revolt in December 1989, Romania had become one of the poorest countries in Soviet-controlled Europe. no longer. Romania’s belated free market reforms have begun. Romania’s economy has quadrupled in size since 1989 and it joined NATO and the European Union. Despite the deepening current political crisis, Romania has gained membership in the EU’s Schengen Area, which means free travel within the area. This was a big moment for Romanians, and everyone I spoke to in Bucharest considered it a major national achievement.
But success viewed from afar and in context does not seem to be enough to reassure Romanian voters. Political grievances common in Europe and America are hitting Romania hard. The good news, as I reminded those I spoke to in Bucharest, is that Romania is part of the same political family as the rest of Europe and the United States. The bad news is that they share the same challenges and struggle.
Many Romanian nationalists appear to believe that the incoming Trump administration will be favorable to them. There are people in a wide swath of President-elect Donald Trump’s world who are looking for people they think they can identify with ideologically. In fact, Romanian media reported that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, would visit Romania after the first presidential election, essentially to promote Georgescu. It was full of speculation that he had a plan. (The trip never actually took place, and the story may have been invented by Georgescu’s allies.) The Trump administration has made use of Georgescu’s self-proclaimed Romania First (pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, anti-foreign investment) views. It is questionable: ideological compatibility may not translate into policy compatibility.
What happens next is up to Romanians: Will there be new faces in the next government? When and how will presidential elections be held again? And can Romania’s centrist parties learn from this near-miss political train wreck?
Daniel Fried is a distinguished fellow in the Weiser Family of the Atlantic Council, a former U.S. Ambassador to Poland, and a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs.
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Image: A person walks near the Christmas market in Constitution Square by the Parliament Building after the Romanian Supreme Court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election on December 6, 2024 in Bucharest, Romania. Reuters/Luisa Gouriamaki
