The French government, led by right-wing Prime Minister Michel Barnier, is on the brink of collapse after opposition parties announced they would push for a no-confidence vote over a dispute over the social security budget.
Barnier’s decision to force the budget through without a vote has infuriated both France’s left-wing and far-right parties.
Barnier, a former Brexit negotiator, was personally appointed prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron in September after a snap election in July left parliament dysfunctional. The 73-year-old leader has led a minority government.
French lawmakers are expected to table two no-confidence motions on Wednesday. A vote of no confidence would plunge France into political turmoil for the second time this year.
What led to the motion of no confidence?
In recent days, parliamentarians from France’s far-right party National Rally (RN) and left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) have pressured Barnier to make concessions for his government on the 2025 social security budget. is being applied.
Barnier’s budget plan includes $62.8 billion worth of tax increases to raise money for the state and about 40 billion euros ($42 billion) worth of government spending cuts aimed at reducing the budget deficit.
France’s public deficit has reached about 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), and Mr. Barnier said he would like to reduce the deficit in line with European Union rules that require countries to maintain a budget deficit ratio of 3%. is enthusiastic about
On Monday, the beleaguered prime minister used Article 49(3) of France’s constitution to pass the social security budget for 2025 through parliament without a vote.
Mathilde Panault, from the left-wing parliamentary group France Unboud (LFI), appeared on France’s BFM television on Monday and said: “According to (Article 49.3), this is an illegitimate government.” Too many blows. We are filing a motion for censure. Mr. Barnier is out of office. Mr. Macron is next.”
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), said on the It will further worsen the social situation.” Seven years of Macronism have already resulted in huge deficits. ”
Mr Barnier defended his budget, saying: “The French people will not forgive us for putting personal interests ahead of the future of the country.”
Jacob Ross, an expert on French politics and Franco-German relations, said: “Since Mr. Barnier became prime minister, it has become clear that he relies on the support of the forces of the French political system, particularly the radical right led by Le Pen.” ” he said. He spoke to Al Jazeera at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“But she and her party had no interest in the long-term survival of Mr. Barnier and Mr. Macron.
“Furthermore, with the ongoing case against Ms. Le Pen, we believe that she is cornered by the French judicial system and may also find it difficult to run for the next presidential election. Her party’s decision is a motion meant to help her win the people’s votes, but her party opened the door to chaos (and thereby losing more moderate parts of her electorate). ) It is extremely dangerous because it may be considered as an object. ” he added.
Will the current government fall?
Motions of censure, or no-confidence motions, are nothing new in France. The country’s government under President Charles de Gaulle, elected to power in 1958, was forced to resign in 1962 after facing a vote of no confidence over the resolution of the Algerian crisis.
In March 2023, President Macron’s government narrowly survived a vote of no confidence over pension reform, which sparked violent protests across the country.
Ross is confident that Barnier’s government will be voted out of office on Wednesday.
“If Mr. Barnier does not fall, political turmoil in France will only be postponed.”
President Macron is currently visiting Saudi Arabia with the aim of strengthening ties with the Middle Eastern country. Despite tomorrow’s vote, Macron’s term as president will continue until 2027. However, if Barnier’s government collapses, Macron will hold talks to appoint a new prime minister.
Gethin Weber, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office, said a no-confidence motion could cause a major political deadlock.
“We will be back in the same game as in the summer[of 2024]. Mr. Macron has found himself in a very divided parliament, with a left bloc, a centrist bloc and a far-right bloc,” she said. told Al Jazeera.
“Basically, if Mr. Barnier is voted out, there is a big political impasse because it is unclear whether Mr. Macron will be able to nominate someone from his political family again. The only option is to nominate someone from the political left. I’ll probably nominate it.
He pointed out that the left also does not have an absolute majority and building a coalition government will be complicated.
“Another option would be to appoint a caretaker government…but that is not a sustainable solution.”
How do people in France feel?
For Barbara d’Arbois*, who lives in Avignon in southeastern France, this year’s French politics has been “la chienlit”, or chaotic.
“My feelings are mixed. Some are angry about French politics, while others are happy,” a 52-year-old man who works at a telecommunications company told Al Jazeera.
“We are also not used to compromise like other European countries,” she commented on the political turmoil.
Stuart Bottomley, a British interior decorator who lives near Bordeaux, told Al Jazeera: France will need to decide its future, which direction it wants to go. It’s time to stop placating the corrupt poison of Mr. Le Pen’s fascistic RN. It would be like a stinging boil. ”
What does this mean for Europe?
France is experiencing political turmoil for the second time this year, following the collapse of neighboring Germany’s government last month. The political crisis in the euro zone’s largest economy comes a month after Donald Trump was elected US president. President Trump is scheduled to visit the French capital over the weekend to prepare for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
Ross acknowledged that European powers such as France and Germany are extremely vulnerable, pointing to President Trump and stressing that they are undoubtedly ill-prepared for what is to come.
“I think European leaders currently lack the ability to confront President Trump’s America and come up with solutions to stop the wars in Ukraine and Gaza on the international stage. “European Union member states of size are seriously trying to fill that leadership vacuum,” he said.
Weber feels that political turmoil, especially in France, is not ideal for the future of Europe.
“Internal destabilization will require a great deal of political cooperation from President Macron. This is a country with a very unstable government on the one hand and paralyzed by inability to do anything on the other. “This requires a lot of presidential attention, making it difficult for Mr. Macron to focus on European issues,” she said.
“What France needs at this moment is leadership for a cure,” she added.
*Some names have been changed to protect individual privacy.
