CNN
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In a buoyant speech to supporters after taking the oath of office in January, President Donald Trump ribbed Mike Johnson on the number of Republican lawmakers he tapped for his administration’s post.
“He didn’t care,” Trump teases, teasing Johnson playing with him, venting his frustration at the laughter from the crowd. “He could handle it.”
But two months later, Trump’s lightness gave way to anxiety. “We have a small margin. We don’t want to take a chance. We don’t want to experiment,” he said Friday when his team explained why one of those representatives, New York’s Elise Stefanik, suddenly pulled him to become the UN ambassador.
Stephanik’s sudden relegation back to Congress comes as Republicans are sweating through a special election in Florida on Tuesday, filling up a seat vacant by two more House members previously tapped by Trump.
One race in the state’s sixth legislative district is replacing national security adviser Michael Waltz. Michael Waltz has become the focus of the White House’s frustration with his role starting his role, and mistakenly includes a reporter.
The other winners on Tuesday will replace former Matt Gaetz, whom Trump chose as his attorney general, before allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use that the House Ethics Panel derailed his appointment. Although denied the allegations, Goetz, who still retracted himself from consideration, represented Florida’s First Congressional District.
Trump carried over 30 points across both Florida districts in November, but Republicans recently expressed some vigilance, particularly in previous seats in the state’s East Coast Waltz. So Democrat Josh Weil overtook Trump-backed GOP candidates, retired Randy Fein and 10-1 retired state senators, the disparity that sent a shockwave from Florida to Washington when first reported in a federal campaign finance application earlier this month.
Republican leaders were extremely anxious about Fine’s seemingly inactive campaign that some intervened. Top Trump advisers recently faced issues about the need to bolster his efforts, with House GOP campaign chief Richard Hudson and House majority Whip Tom Emmer each fined him to “have his sh*t together.”
Hanging from the balance on Tuesday night is the future of Trump’s agenda. This already faces a difficult path through a home where Republicans have a 218-213 edge against Democrats, with four vacancies and subtle negotiations in the Senate. Defeat in Florida – Incredibly unlikely, both parties personally agree, but brings a nervous Republican into full-blown panic.
However, even the positive outcomes that provide anticipated reinforcements for Johnson may not completely alleviate GOP concerns. A narrower than planned victory in the deep part of Florida’s Republican Party could indicate an early voter rejection in Trump’s second term, and could boost Democrats who are still shaking from defeat.
At their scramble to ease expectations on Tuesday, Republicans pointed their fingers cheerfully. Weil fined about $1 million for about $9.5 million, ranging from about $8.2 million to just over $895,000. The fine – with a history of local controversy and was ordered by a judge to undergo anger management counseling last October – had only reported $93,000 in cash on March 13 in a Federal Election Commission application. He recently loaned out a campaign for $400,000.
“There are a lot of complaints. From my point of view, he was already active as if he was a member of the council because he was already a safe district,” a GOP operative told CNN. “No matter what district you are in, you can’t take things for granted, regardless of whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican.”
Republicans will ultimately remain bright about the possibility of holding both seats in Florida. In particular, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not invested in any of Florida’s special elections. This reflects the narrow path to victory for candidates. House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries recently made a token contribution to Democrats Weil and Gay Valiant facing Republican Jimmy Patronis in the race to replace Gaetz, but he has fully stopped predicting his party notching victory in the state on Tuesday.
“All I can say is that I almost guarantee it: both Democrat candidates in these Florida special elections represent another indication that Republicans are running and Democrats are trying to regain control of the House next year,” Jeffries said at a press conference last week.
The headaches that were launched by creating a handful of homes should have been anticipated by Republicans. Since speaking in 2023, Johnson has been nervous to control the Caucus, with Republicans still remaining a majority in November, while Democrats narrowed the gap to just a handful of votes.
When Trump began naming House Republicans at the top post of his administration in November, Johnson joked, saying he “already pleaded and pleaded with the new president “already ‘sufficient’,” but also claimed that the two were closely aligned with the path of progress.
“He knows the size of the margin very well,” Johnson said at the time.
But the combination of thin-razor home margins and the historic headwinds facing powerful parties has become increasingly urgent concern for Republican leaders.
By drawing Stefanik’s appointment, Republicans avoid having to repeat these instability in special elections for her seat in a state that is far more challenging for the party. After months of preparing for the new mission, leaving staff and delivering farewell messages to supporters, Stefanik said the decision was made in response to concerns that Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul could delay election day, blocking another vote in Congress.
“It’s about stepping up as a team and I’m doing it as a leader, so I’m getting this mission and getting these historic results,” Stephanik told Fox News on Thursday.
Republican strategist and CNN commentator Scott Jennings said political strategy was “absolutely right” given Democrats recently outstripped Republicans in special elections when Trump wasn’t on the polls.
“At least, when she plays for reelection next year, we’ll win easily,” Jennings told CNN’s “Newsnight.”
But Democrat adviser Neela Tanden appeared alongside Jennings and said the fears expressed by the Trump district’s White House showcased much deeper concerns about the country’s response to his first two months, the district, which was overwhelmingly carried in November.
“The fact that they are basically making (Stefanik) is what makes this carrier’s face plant,” Tanden said.
Annie Grayer of CNN contributed to this report.
