TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The nation’s biggest battleground state is becoming, at least for now, one of the nation’s most obscure.
Florida has historically been considered a crucial state for candidates seeking the White House, resulting in large candidate rallies, alternative events and huge amounts of national funding to fund campaign ads across the state’s 10 expensive media markets.
But for the first time in recent political memory, Florida has become a relative afterthought in the presidential election of 2024. While Democrats here are trying to maintain momentum and voter enthusiasm, nearly every measurable factor indicates Florida is not a realistic advantage for them in this year’s presidential election.
“Are you happy that we’re a strong Republican state? We used to be on the very edge of winning Florida in presidential elections,” Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis told his party’s faithful at a rally at South Florida’s Hard Rock Casino last weekend. “If Republicans couldn’t win Florida, there was no way they could win the Electoral College.”
Florida has long been solidly Republican at the state level, where Republicans now hold a registered voter advantage of more than 1 million and maintain a firm grip on nearly all political power, but in the past, the state has been considered winnable by Democrats when big money has flowed into presidential elections.
That money has almost completely dried up.
For example, in September 2020 alone, more than $57 million was spent on television advertising in Florida, according to media buying tracking service AdImpact, compared with $38 million from President Joe Biden’s campaign and $19 million from Donald Trump’s campaign. In the non-presidential 2022 election cycle, national Democratic organizations spent $2 million in Florida, down from about $60 million in the last midterm elections. So far in the 2024 election cycle, a total of $2.1 million has been spent on television advertising for the presidential election.
“The decline in spending reflects election assessments provided by the Cook Political Report, which indicate statewide races are less competitive than they once were,” said AdImpact’s analysis of Florida’s plummeting political ad spending totals.
The Florida Democratic Party has adopted the slogan “Something’s Happening in Florida” for 2024, acknowledging the fact that while no one expects a Democrat to win the state, Democrats see certain indicators that give them reason for optimism, not just about this year but about the party and rebuilding infrastructure in general.
“The work we’ve done and the grassroots momentum will position Florida to be competitive in 2024,” said Eden Jagnorio, communications director for the Florida Democratic Party. “Just imagine what we could accomplish with some real investment.”
The party has so far canvassed 1.3 million homes, made 3.1 million phone calls and sent more than 10.9 million text messages. The party also points to the fact that several school board candidates backed by DeSantis were defeated in Florida’s Aug. 20 primary, the governor’s first political defeat in years.
“This stands in stark contrast to Trump’s virtually nonexistent activity in Florida, where our machinery has flexed its muscles to deliver a humiliating defeat to Ron DeSantis in his first real test of this election cycle,” a memo circulated by the Florida Democratic Party said.
The Harris campaign says it has 40,000 volunteers in the state, but Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power said that figure is an exaggeration.
“We don’t talk about local efforts. They use Nikki Fried’s fictitious volunteer numbers,” he said, referring to the Florida Democratic Party chairwoman.
Daniel Alvarez, a senior adviser to President Trump, said Florida is “Trump country.”
“Why does NBC keep letting Matt Dixon waste his time on Florida news,” she said of the reporter. “It’s just as embarrassing as Kamala Harris wasting her time in Florida.”
Florida continues to attract the attention of pollsters, whose findings offer a ray of hope and messaging for Democrats. A Morning Consult poll released last week showed Trump ahead of Harris by just 2 percentage points, while other polls in recent weeks have shown him ahead by 5 to 7 points.
Democrats have used those poll numbers as momentum indicators, but most polls still show Trump’s 3.2-point victory in 2020 was seen as a big win at the time in a state where presidential elections have long been decided by close margins.
Steve Scheer, a veteran Florida Democratic activist, argued that while the party could see some long-term gains if Harris loses, low spending in the state makes an outright victory unlikely.
“For those who keep asking me if Harris can win here, the answer is complicated,” Scheer wrote. “The reality is, their math doesn’t apply to Florida. So without the necessary money to win, the answer is almost certainly no.”
He said he was “realistic” about the odds of Harris winning in Florida, but added that Democrats in the state could see a silver lining regardless of the outcome.
“I really hope that all of the volunteers that are here will go out and register to vote,” Scheer said. “If we can rebuild real, permanent infrastructure, that’s a win.”
Harris’ campaign has visited the state, but not since she replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee in July.
After Tuesday night’s debate, the Harris campaign is planning a tour of battleground states, including Florida, although a planned Orlando-area rally will be hosted by her husband, Doug Emhoff, rather than by Harris. Last week, Harris campaign allies also launched a “Fight for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida, a launch pad that Democrats touted as a sign of national importance.
“Torrential rains and widespread flooding couldn’t stop the people of Jacksonville from joining the Reproductive Freedom & #HarrisWalz bus tour!” the campaign’s Florida social media account posted after the Jacksonville event.
“FLA is playing. #FLinPLAY,” they added.
