Welcome to the final From the Politics Desk newsletter of the year. In this newsletter, we look ahead to the key stories that will shape Washington and beyond in 2025 (see here for a summary of the dynamics that defined 2024). Friday, January 3rd.
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5 big storylines that will shape 2025
Written by Sahil Kapur
With the new Congress beginning on January 3 and President-elect Donald Trump’s term beginning on January 20, here are five big storylines to watch in the new year.
1. How will Mike Johnson manage his small House majority?
If things go well for Mike Johnson, re-election as Speaker of the House on January 3rd could be a no-brainer. Next, he must overcome a series of difficult challenges with a razor-thin House majority. These include refunding the government on March 14th, the debt limit deadline, and (possibly two) major party-line bills to advance President Trump’s policies. Immigration, border security, energy, tax cuts. This will be a daunting challenge, especially for a speaker who suddenly took over the job out of nowhere just 14 months ago. Johnson was retained as chairman on Monday with President Trump’s support, but he is about to face the most critical period of his career.
2. What characterizes John Thune’s era?
Senate Republicans will have new leadership for the first time in 18 years, with John Thune taking over the reins from Mitch McConnell. Are Tune’s leadership styles similar or different? McConnell built his power by deeply understanding his chambers and following their wishes. On what issues, if any, will Mr. Thune say no to Mr. Trump, and how?
3. How will Democrats deal with Trump 2.0?
There are early signs that Democrats, hurt by their 2024 failures, want to treat Mr. Trump differently than they did in his first term. His social media posts and erratic reactions to cultural ridicule have diminished. They should focus more on the economic issues that caused voters to oppose them. It’s worth noting that some Democrats’ harshest criticism of Trump after the election was when he said it was “hard” to lower food prices. But it remains to be seen whether Democrats have the discipline to stay focused on table issues.
4. Which stars will emerge in the new Congress?
The 2025 Congress will feature new figures for both parties. For Republicans on Capitol Hill, the currency equates to Trump’s proximity to the White House, his ability to advance his policies and his ability to make headlines in conservative media. The question for the Democratic Party is who will become the face of the second resistance force. They spent the final days of 2024 painting Trump as a puppet of billionaires like Elon Musk and demanding a debt limit increase to feed the gears to give Trump a new tax cut bill. .
5. Will Trump and his allies pursue retaliation?
President Trump, who has vowed retaliation against his perceived political opponents, said in an interview on “Meet the Press” this month that he wants to turn the page. “We don’t want to go back to the past. Retribution will come through success,” he said. But his actions tell a different story. Before taking office, he had already filed lawsuits against news outlets including ABC News and an Iowa pollster. On Capitol Hill, he will have allies in committee chairs and other powerful people with subpoena investigative powers. Will they use their power to decide whether Trump wins or loses?
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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