Fantasy football sit-and-start advice is always relative and league-specific. Many starts and sits are obvious, so this column will instead focus on fringe options that require serious thought. Good luck with your Week 1 lineups.
Starting pitcher: George Pickens
Pickens will be a tougher matchup with AJ Terrell likely chasing him, but he’s still a top 30 WR on my board this week. He had a 38.4% first-lead target rate in the four games without Diontaie Johnson last season and ranked in the top 20 in targets per route run (24.1%) and top 5 in yards per route run (2.93).
Whoever starts as Pittsburgh’s quarterback was bound to be better than Kenny Pickett, and Pickens should be busy Sunday as he’ll be inside and facing a pass-funneling Falcons defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year.
Justin Fields started in place of the injured Russell Wilson this week and is ranked as a top-12 quarterback.
Start: James Cook
Cook is in prime position at home against a Cardinals defense that allowed the most fantasy points to running backs last season, as Arizona opponents had the second-highest rushing percentage last year and averaged 30.6 carries, the best in the NFL.
Buffalo has become the league’s most run-oriented team since Joe Brady took over as OC last year, with Cook seeing an expanded role in the red zone. The Bills have the second-highest estimated team points allowed (27.0), so Cook should be treated as a borderline top-five running back this week.
They benched Keion Coleman, who is expected to have a developmental delay during his rookie season.
Starter: Caleb Williams
Williams will have to overcome a very shaky coaching staff in Chicago, but he’s the real deal and his legs will legitimately add to his fantasy value. The Titans are expected to be fast-paced and pass-heavy, so the matchup looks favorable. Williams is worth starting in fantasy right away.
Starting pitchers: Zack Moss & Chase Brown
Cincinnati’s running backs should benefit from a game scenario in which the Bengals are favored by 7.5 points at home. New England’s team point total is just 16.75 points. Ja’Marr Chase returned to limited practice recently and is battling an illness, but will likely play. Still, he could be limited after being sidelined all summer. Meanwhile, with Tee Higgins out with a hamstring issue discovered late in the week, the Bengals will likely try to run as much as they can on Sunday.
Bonus: Andrei Iosivas easily won the WR3 position on the team and is a sleeper.
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Start: Tank Del
Dell’s durability is questionable given his size, but he’s a threat to lead Houston in receiving yards on any given week when healthy. His route participation is expected to drop with Stefon Diggs’ departure to Houston, but Dell should remain plenty involved in a Texans offense that’s sure to ramp up its passing game in 2024.
He outscored Dell in fantasy points in the five games Dell and Nico Collins were healthy last season. Sunday’s matchup will be indoors and fast-paced. CJ Stroud should have a monster performance in Week 1, and Dell should benefit.
Starting line-up: Raheem Mostert
Mostert is 32 years old and an increased injury risk this season, but he plays as Miami’s Class A back and is the overwhelming favorite to make goal-line plays. He played eight games with Miami last year and scored 14 touchdowns. The Dolphins averaged 31.9 points and 6.7 yards per play, best in the NFL. Miami’s offense has traditionally been stronger early in the season, and the Dolphins averaged the third-highest projected points per game (26.3 points) overall on the team.
I would put Raheem as a top 15 “must-starter” back this week (Devon Achan is top 10).
Starter: Dionta Johnson
Johnson is an elite separator and will dominate targets in Carolina. Dave Canales will be a big help to the Panthers offense and Bryce Young, who should improve in year two. Johnson has a career target/run rate of over 30% against man coverage and was twice as efficient against man (0.67 FP/RR) than zone (0.33 FP/RR) in 2023. The Saints played the fourth-highest man coverage rate in the league last season and have DC Joe Woods back.
Johnson’s quest for 100-plus catches begins Sunday.
Starter: Devin Singletary
Singletary will clearly be New York’s workhorse and the way things play out in Week 1 could be more favorable for the Giants than usual. New York’s offense should be better this season with an improved offensive line, early draft addition of alpha WR Malik Neighbors and Brian Daboll calling the plays. Singletary will see plenty of volume in a fast-paced matchup and that’s why he’s a top-25 running back this week.
Neighbors also had a strong fantasy start in his NFL debut.
Starting pitcher: Josh Palmer
Palmer was listed as having a knee issue on the injury report Thursday but was a full participant in practice and did so again Friday. Assuming Palmer is able to return, he’ll likely immediately slot into Los Angeles’ WR1 role (and lead the team in targets this season) as rookie Ladd McConkey didn’t get to practice much with Justin Herbert during the preseason.
Herbert (foot) is eligible to play in Week 1, and Palmer ranked in the top 25 in yards per route run (2.2) and top 12 in receiving yards per game (71.1) last season after Mike Williams was injured. Palmer’s target rate per route run jumped to 20% over his career while Williams was off the field and with Keenan Allen also leaving the team during the offseason.
Palmer didn’t crack the top 50 wide receivers in Yahoo leagues, but he could crack the top 25 if he plays well.
Starting line-up: Jackson Smith-Njiba
Smith-Njiva had a disappointing rookie season, with a broken wrist and coaching being the major contributing factors. Despite Seattle drafting JSN in the first round, his usage rate in 3WR sets was low and his average depth of target was 95th among wide receivers. In fact, he had by far the highest target rate behind the line of scrimmage among wide receivers.
Smith-Njiba is expected to play a bigger role in bolstering new OC Ryan Grubb’s Seahawks offense in 2024. With Tyler Lockett expected to play but dealing with a thigh injury this year, both Seattle tight ends are injured and Patrick Surtin set to mark DK Metcalf, JSN will have a strong lineup in Week 1.
Javonte Williams and Kenneth Walker are both strong fantasy starters this week.
Bench: Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, Rico Dowdle
The Cowboys and Prescott have reason to celebrate, as they have reportedly agreed to a record-breaking contract. However, the Cowboys tend to play much better at home and face a very tough matchup on the road in Week 1. The Browns were the NFL’s worst in points per game (13.9) and yards per play (3.7!) at home last year, and Dallas downgraded their offensive line during the offseason. Prescott failed to finish as a top-15 fantasy QB in all five games against top-10 fantasy pass defenses in 2023. Prescott averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, 308.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns at home last season, but only 6.8 yards per attempt, 227.3 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns on the road. Cleveland opponents had the third-lowest neutral passing percentage in 2023.
Ferguson scored one touchdown in nine road games last season and the Browns allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Rico Dowdle is not great with the football and will likely be part of a three-headed committee going up against a Browns defense that gave up the least EPA/play last season. The Cowboys have one of the lowest team totals in Week 1 (19.25) and are projected to score fewer points than the Giants and Commanders.
But CeeDee Lamb is still an elite fantasy starter against a well-manned Cleveland defense.
Starting pitcher: Jayden Daniels
Daniels will get sacked a lot and make a lot of mistakes as a rookie, especially while having to overcome some very questionable coaching, but his exemplary rushing ability will make him an immediate top-10 QB option, including in a fast-paced matchup at Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Buccaneers allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs as a pass-funnel defense last season, but the eighth-most to quarterbacks and the second-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (six).
Daniels is another rookie ready to make an immediate fantasy impact in Week 1.
Starter: Jared Goff
Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards (7.9 per attempt) and 44 touchdowns in 17 games over the past two seasons with Detroit. He doesn’t have the fantasy-level upside of a dual-threat QB in a run attack, but he thrives when playing at home. The Rams allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season and are now without Aaron Donald.
The Lions are coming off an NFL-best team total (28.5 points) in what is expected to be a high-scoring Week 1 matchup, Rams opponents had the third-highest neutral passing percentage last year, and with DB Darius Williams just being placed on IR, feature Goff in your fantasy lineups.
Bonus: For those needing tight end help, Colby Parkinson is a hidden talent.
Sit: Brock Purdy
With Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Aaron Banks and Trent Williams missing significant preseason practice, the 49ers offense may be off to a somewhat slow start, and a matchup against the Jets won’t help. San Francisco has questionable offense, and New York comes into the game with the league’s best defense. The Jets somehow gave up the fewest points per play last season despite having the second-fewest yards allowed by their offense. New York allowed just 187.2 passing yards per game (6.1 yards/game) last year and by far the fewest fantasy points after schedule adjustments to quarterbacks.
Plus, he should play limited minutes in this game, as the 49ers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league and no quarterback enjoys wasting playing time more than Aaron Rodgers. Purdy should be a top-10 fantasy QB most weeks, but he won’t play on Monday night.
