It’s been a great week for late round running backs! Five backs with an ADP of 90 or higher were in the early top 10 in the draft, and they were some of my personal favorites heading into this week.
Tony Pollard (ADP 90.8)
Chase Brown (113.8)
JK Dobbins (130)
Rico Doodle (128.3)
Tuba Hubbard (129.9)
This production is not unusual. These backs continued to rise as the season progressed, proving their worth as high-value fantasy assets. However, the question remains as to how much we can trust their backs going forward.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Earlier this week, I predicted Tony Pollard would finish in the top 10 with a strong performance of 20 carries of over 100 yards, solid receiving work and a touchdown. Although he didn’t reach that mark because he didn’t have a touchdown, he had a great day with 28 carries for 128 yards and three receptions for 26 yards. Depending on how the prime-time game goes, he could end up being a borderline RB1.
Heading into the season, I had concerns about Pollard after his disappointing 2023 season and thought Tejay Spears could take over the backfield. Despite the Titans’ struggles on offense, Spears dealt with injuries and Pollard dominated with touches with a strong statistical year. Coming into this week, Pollard averaged RB22 points per game in half PPR, which is respectable considering his limited touchdown opportunities. His production has been steady and he maintains a decent floor.
Pulse check: Is Pollard’s production sustainable in the Titans’ offensive ROS?
With Mason Rudolph at the helm, the Titans’ offense feels different. He’s not perfect, but he’s more consistent. In better matchups, Pollard’s RB1 ceiling is on the low end, but in tougher matchups, he becomes a flex option. The next few weeks are a little uncertain, but the real key for Pollard is the playoff schedule. From Week 13 through the Fantasy Championship in Week 17, Pollard will face Washington, Jacksonville (twice), Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
Pollard is a solid trade candidate at a reasonable price and could pay off in the fantasy playoffs. His job is stable, his workload is large, and his position is solid.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
With Zack Moss out, Brown was promoted from committee to lead back and was the only running back to touch the ball in Week 9 for the Bengals. Brown gained 120 yards on 27 carries and caught all five targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. He made the most of a struggling Raiders defense and it was great to see him handle such a heavy workload. And it’s a clear sign of the confidence the Bengals coaching staff has in him.
I discussed Brown in my “make or break” column and highlighted his potential for growth this week in light of this matchup. When an injury occurs within the committee, we often see them stepping up further back to maintain attacking formation, rather than taking over as lead back completely. We saw this today in the command backfield, with Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols all sharing the load in the absence of Brian Robinson Jr.
But Brown was the clear three-down back.
Brown was one of my favorite draft picks this season. Because while Moss was expected to start the season as the lead back, I had full confidence that Brown was simply the better back and would eventually take over. As the season progressed, Brown steadily reduced Moss’ workload, but it was clear that the Bengals had no intention of removing Moss from committee. Both backs had decent floor, but their upside was limited due to volume limitations.
Pulse Check: What Happens When Zack Moss Returns?
There are a few things working against Chase Brown. Advanced metrics have favored Brown for most of the season, and even though Brown has a clear advantage, the Bengals haven’t actively shifted the workload in his favor. It’s hard to believe they’ll do away with Moss completely. I think Brown may be getting some favor, but Moss’ presence will be enough to fill Brown’s true ceiling. This means Brown has the advantage of an RB1 in good matchups, but performs more like a low-end RB2 in tougher matchups.
The Bengals’ upcoming schedule includes a difficult run defense, with a game against Baltimore in Week 10, followed by a game against the LA Chargers, followed by a bye week. I believe in Brown’s talent, but I’m not sure the Bengals believe in him enough to make sure they take him on board. Talent typically wins, but the Bengals organization is prone to questionable practices.
If Moss’ injury is still an issue, that’s very Brown. If Moss returns soon, we’ll likely find ourselves in a similar situation again.
Tuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
There’s a surprising amount of discussion among fantasy managers regarding Tuba Hubbard, a little-known running back who is part of one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Heading into the season, we expected Hubbard to be a short-term replacement until Jonathon Brooks returned from the PUP list.
Instead, we’re heading into Week 10 and Brooks has yet to see any action.
Hubbard played great as the Panthers’ lead back. Other than a poor performance in Week 1, Hubbard has never finished lower than RB33, finishing in the top 10 three times (and possibly as many as four depending on the prime-time game in Week 9). ) is ranked. Typically, he boasts a double-digit floor with a high ceiling and has been highly accomplished thus far. He was one of the most reliable backs in the league.
Brooks will likely be active in Week 10, but it’s hard to imagine the Panthers putting a heavy workload on Brooks right away after he’s out. Hubbard has been effective, and there’s no reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks back, especially since he was a bye in Week 11. I expect Brooks to be minimal in Week 10, with Hubbard holding the lead for another week.
Pulse check: What happens after the bye week?
Brooks’ workload may increase after the bye, but Hubbard should maintain his flex value, especially during the playoffs, which continues against Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay. Something has to give here, as the Panthers offense doesn’t have enough power to support a productive back two, and that “giving” could easily fall on Brooks.
The Panthers have no incentive to give Brooks too much of a workload, and they hope to keep Brooks’ use to a minimum while keeping Hubbard in the lead. His ceiling will drop, but he still deserves a starting spot.
Rico Doodle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
We’ve talked about disappointing backs offenses like Tennessee and Carolina, but Dallas is on another level. They have significantly underperformed compared to expectations, and with Dak Prescott dealing with a hamstring injury and CeeDee Lamb dealing with a shoulder injury, an absolute tailwind that could get even worse. I’m falling into this.
Despite Dallas’ struggles in Week 9, Rico Doodle had a strong fantasy performance. Despite his low volume, he was incredibly productive against Atlanta, finishing with 12 carries for 75 yards and five receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Pulse Check: Was Week 9’s performance a blip or should we expect production ROS from RB1?
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Dowdle running with a full workload. About 1 month. Back in Week 5, Dowdle had a great performance with 20 carries for 87 yards and one receiving touchdown, but was injured the following week. Dallas received a bye in Week 7, and Dowdle was late due to illness in Week 8. With Ezekiel Elliott inactive for disciplinary reasons in Week 9, Dowdle had no competition and thrived despite the offense’s struggles.
He’s had the best record in Dallas and his job is very stable. After a tough game against Philadelphia next week, the competition will heat up, especially into Week 16 as Dowdle takes on Cincinnati, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Despite the looming injuries on the team, Doodle should maintain a lead back role and there is an opportunity at RB1.
JK Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
I saved Dobbins for last because it really is this year’s Cinderella story.
Everyone’s favorite comeback player right now is Kirk Cousins, but don’t even consider Dobbins. He dominated the Chargers’ backfield from the start and never let up. In Week 9, he had his best performance of the season with 14 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns, as well as two receptions for 20 yards. Heading into Week 9, Dobbins was averaging RB17 points per game and 13.7 fantasy points per game in half PPR.
Pulse check: Does the clock strike midnight in the Cinderella story?
The only thing working in Dobbins’ favor at this point is his own injury history. He hasn’t played more than eight games since his rookie season in 2020, so it feels like we’re in a critical period and holding our breath on every hit. There is no threat to his work rate, and the Chargers’ offense continues to improve as the young receiver develops. This improvement should lead to more touchdown opportunities and more games like his Week 9 production.
The road ahead is a bit tough for Dobbins. While they have favorable matchups against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, they also have difficult run defenses in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Denver. Despite the potential defensive traps, Dobbins is still a strong 3-down back with the upside of a true RB1 – health permitting, of course.
