When the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, their intentions were clear. They were a “win-now” team and wanted a stable veteran quarterback to guide them on their way to the Super Bowl. Fast forward and you’ll see limited and mixed results.
The Jets are tied at 2-2 against the NFL’s weaker teams, the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots. In what was supposed to be a layup against the struggling Denver Broncos, the Jets failed to score a single touchdown and suffered a disappointing 10-9 loss.
They didn’t look like a team ready to make the playoffs.
From a fantasy football perspective, the first four weeks of the season have caused major concerns for the Jets offense as a whole. The fact that two first-round fantasy picks came from this team makes it even more alarming. The Jets hadn’t scored more than 24 points in any game thus far, and while Rodgers wasn’t necessarily expected to turn the offense into a strong unit, the level of production was far below expectations. Rodgers’ appeal was supposed to be his increased efficiency, but his production didn’t translate into volume and left a bad impression on fantasy managers.
Is it time to panic about the Jets offense?
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Outside of super-flex leagues, Rodgers was not drafted as a starting quarterback. However, his effectiveness should be analyzed first to contextualize Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson’s performances, as his effectiveness directly impacts the team’s fantasy stars. But don’t worry. This won’t take long.
Rodgers had an underwhelming performance in Week 1, completing just 13 of 21 attempts for 167 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It was his first game back so we gave him a pass. There was improvement in Weeks 2 and 3, with two touchdowns in each game, but the volume was still underwhelming. In Week 4, Rodgers completed 24 of 42 attempts for 225 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s it. Nothing really stands out as a significant catalyst for fantasy production.
Pulse check: Is Rodgers really the improvement we were looking for?
This performance was expected, so I’ll give Rodgers another pass. However, while this matchup was difficult, the road ahead will not be easy. The Jets next play Minnesota, followed by Buffalo, Pittsburgh and New England. It’s hard to imagine the volume of high passes in a matchup like this. This performance gives us a preview of the coming weeks, but Rodgers will likely continue to be underwhelming and his struggles will impact the receiving corps.
Garrett Wilson, WR
It’s clear that Rodgers’ performance has had the biggest impact on Wilson. Looking at Wilson’s stats coming out this week, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are frustrated with players they draft in one-two turns. Wilson recorded just 15 receptions on 26 targets, scored one touchdown, and averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game in a half-PPR format (WR34 overall).
Patrick Surtain’s performance in Week 4 was actually better than we expected, considering he has always shut down top wide receivers. The fact that Wilson managed five total receptions is a testament to his talent. Wilson lost a fumble in this game, but if not for that, his fantasy performance would have been similar to the previous three weeks. At least it’s consistent.
But when you’re losing to players like Khalil Shakir (who, for the record, I love), Jalen Naylor, and your own teammate Allen Lazard, it’s natural for fantasy managers to be concerned.
Pulse check: Did you significantly overshoot on Wilson’s ADP?
In 2023, Wilson was targeted 168 times. Even with the addition of Mike Williams, there was no reason to expect Wilson’s volume to be an issue. The theory behind Rodgers’ addition was that Wilson was already an elite receiver and needed a more efficient quarterback to increase his touchdowns and overall productivity. But over the course of four weeks, Wilson’s average catch rate was 59%, only slightly higher than his 57% catch rate in 2023. This is not the efficiency increase we expected. To make matters worse, Wilson hasn’t had more than 60 yards in any game and has just one touchdown through four games. This puts him on pace for just four touchdowns in a full season.
Inefficient, minimal volume, lack of touchdowns – familiar story, right?
His production is following a similar pattern to last year, and fantasy managers will be in full panic if things don’t change soon. We haven’t benched Wilson yet – he still provides flex-worthy numbers – but this wasn’t what we expected when we drafted him. I was expecting Davante Adams-level production, but I was left with an Allen Lazard-level performance. Oh, the irony!
Breece Hall, RB
With the Jets’ passing game struggling, you might expect the run game to take center stage. But that wasn’t the case either. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack in rushing attempts and yards, averaging 4 yards per carry entering Week 4. Those are decent numbers, but not what you would expect from a team with an upgraded offensive line and a veteran quarterback. The bigger problem is that Breece Hall isn’t driving these numbers 100%. The arrival of Braylon Allen is just enough to significantly reduce his workload and take away any real ceiling for his upside.
Entering Week 4, Hall’s fantasy production wasn’t an issue. He was the RB6 in half PPR and averaged 17.7 points per game. Still, it was frustrating to compare his numbers to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, who averaged more than 26 points per game. Hall’s work was good, but not elite.
Pulse check: Only one bad game – Hall is still RB1…right?
Heading into the season, Allen was seen as a valuable late draft pick who could back up Hall on the plus side to win the league if Hall was injured. However, despite limited use in Week 1, Allen established a steady role and contributed on the ground and in the passing game. He showed solid efficiency and touchdown equity, proving to be a great complement to Hall.
In Week 4, Allen had eight carries for 34 yards and one reception for 12 yards, while Hall had just 10 carries for four yards and two receptions for 14 yards. . Fantasy managers are starting to worry about the possibility of splitting the backfield. I think this is an overreaction, but it’s hard to ignore Allen’s efficiency. Still, Hall is still the lead back, and we’re still going to start him as a top-12 option. However, if the Jets’ offense doesn’t improve, Hall’s beautiful dream of finishing as the No. 1 overall running back might just be a pipe dream.
Bonus pulse check – where do Allen Lazard and Mike Williams fit into this mess?
I mentioned Lazard earlier, and his involvement was somewhat predictable. Do you trust Lazard enough to start with confidence? still. Could he be a low-end flex option during a bye week or if he faces an injury? absolutely! One thing we know about Rodgers is that he sticks to his favorite targets, and Lazard is clearly one of them.
The bigger question is how Mike Williams will fit into this offense.
Williams isn’t a huge factor yet, but we knew his involvement would increase over time as he recovers from the torn ACL he suffered last season. He looked better in Week 4, making four catches on five targets for 67 yards. The direction wasn’t overwhelming, but he clearly carved out the role. That said, we need to see more before trusting him in the lineup. The Jets will face some tough defenses in the coming weeks, so Wilson will likely face a top cornerback, which could mean more targets for Lazard and Williams. Rodgers is a smart quarterback who knows how to take advantage of matchups, which could mean value going forward for both Lazard and Williams.
