The Shuffle Up Series continues to roll alongside a group of players at my price in each position. Today we reach a truly important shuffle. This is the most difficult position to manage.
Starting pitcher. Ah, certainly. This must be a real hot.
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If there is only one answer from the singular player from the future demon, we will seek the correct answer for SP1 for the upcoming fresh season. Once you connect to that player, the winning odds will immediately push and push the roof. Alas, pitchers will forever be fantasy baseball sirens, seducing you with sweet promises that often don’t come true.
Starting Pitcher Overview
Of course, that’s not really their fault. Throwing baseball at a professional level probably requires irrational taxation. Shoulders, forearms, elbows. They often cannot handle the tension of repeated acts. Speed is especially a big part of the game now. As a result of a pitcher’s injury, the MLB club will do everything they can to “save” the pitcher. An aggressive trip to the list where you were injured when you were hooked from start to start, lower your season’s IP target and even slight physical problems occurred.
(Shuffle up Ranking Tier: Catcher | Corner Infield | Middle Infield | Outfield | Starter | Rescuer)
It is debated whether modern theories of pitcher processing are more of a gift than a curse. Perhaps the team is setting it up to actually fail, in order to suppress and protect their valuable weapons. That’s another day’s discussion.
When you choose the right player, your fantasy strategy works, but you are unlikely to use outlier strategies in pitching. I’m not going to be a team that loads early. Nor is it the longest team. In a typical mixed league, I want to get three arms that feel moderately good. Then later look for a plausible upside down (as other solid managers do). I also keep an eye on middle-aged heroes, especially during the season, when fresh heroes appear. There have been fewer wins from starting pitchers in recent years, and the value of unclosed relief pitchers has increased.
If you’re in doubt, find a great pitcher tied to a solid team or a threatless ballpark. That’s common sense, but in many cases common sense is the best part of your fantasy toolbox.
* = Check status (usually not always the status of an injury)
Are there some differences of opinion? Good, that’s why we have a game. We welcome any discrepancies in your reasons on X (@scott_pianowski) or Blue Sky (@pianow.bsky.social).
Tier 1: Big ticket
Tarix Cabal for $31
Paul Skens for $29
Zack Wheeler for $28
26 dollars Logan Gilbert
Corbin Burns for $25
Chris’s sale for $24
$23 Cole Lagann
Dylan for $23 stops
Gerrit Cole for $23
Garrett Crochet for $22
Skenes is basically not restrained, but an average fastball of 98.9 worries him for his future health. He didn’t work particularly deeply in the game last year, not for efficiency, but mainly because of team design. The goal is to take off your safety gloves this year. Last season’s 1.96 ERA was not fully verified by the estimator, but it is dominated by a healthy sken. Perhaps it’s not my purpose to take him early in the second round, but I can see why I do that.
Wheeler posted his career season at the age of 34 despite a slight dip at fastball speed. Babip was very good for him – he will probably return some of that .246 number since last year. Age is a mild concern, but if you imagine a horse on the mound, you’ll think of someone with Wheeler’s figure (6 feet 4, 195 pounds).
It is important to understand that Seattle has the most pitcher-favorable park in the majors. So that starter is a good target. We start with Gilbert, who has been durable for the third year in a row and has improved his strikeout rate every season. Last year’s dream .887 whip probably won’t be repeated, but here’s a fun floor and he’s stepping into his age 28 season. Sounds like a clever round three target.
The Braves had an upside down season in 2024. For some reason, I kept the sales healthy for about five months, but the entire lineup was injured. It looks like there will be a more normal runout in 2025. Target their batsmen and get the sale back to a 20-25 start at 36 seasons of age. You’ll love the price before clicking.
Burns received the big check expected from Arizona, which pitcher are they getting? He has stepped into 30 seasons and his strikeout rate has fallen sharply over the past three years. Even with the incorporation of postponement, I would have been volatile to give him a six-year contract. And NL West has schedule issues. The Dodgers are clearly loaded, the Padres could ruin an afternoon, and despite the mediocre Colorado lineup, Coorsfield is still a troubling challenge. It’s possible that Burns won’t be on the roster at all in 2025.
Tier 2: Legal Building Blocks
Breaksnell for $20
Michael King for $20
$20 Franver Bardez
18 dollar Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Pablo Lopez for $18
$17 Show Time Managa
Blythe Miller for $17
Maximum fried $17
Luis Castillo for $16
$16 Logan Webb
$16 Bailey Over
Over is always a strange watch. Because for a 6-foot-9 pitcher, he’s a surprisingly normal fastball at just under 92 mph. However, he is a control master and has hit a strikeout rate for the second year in a row. Minnesota’s home parks are slightly preferred to attack, but not in a jagged way. Ober established boring reliability, generally affordable on draft day.
Webb has a profile that I generally want to target. He’s a durable man with his balls on the ground. He was unlucky in last year’s hit sequence and didn’t really have a sense of change, but the added cutter gave better results for the stretch. Focusing on the San Francisco ballpark and defense always helps him. Webb is my target. This is because these are his boring veteran years.
King needed the moon to get the sea legs in San Diego, and he later ruled (against a 2.42 ERA, .219 batting average). Petco Park is the safest pitcher yard in the National League. The King is currently a known amount, but is probably a bit less expensive once the draft season opens.
Tier 3: Talk and talk
As a baseball fan, no pitcher wants to stay healthy than DeGrom. His salad days with the Mets became the TV appointed for me, and I will never forget the amazing 15 start Degrom gave us in 2021 (1.08 ERA, 0.554 WHIP – Wiffleball number). Alas, DeGrom had a lot of Tommy John surgeries in addition to forearm and shoulder problems. He is also in the 37-year-old season. As a deglom manager, how many innings will satisfy you? Is 100 a dream? Is 85 enough to be satisfied? If the team suggests it, will DeGrom consider moving to the bullpen?
The current deglom prices are heavy. He is SP12, SP10 from the early Yahood Raft of the NFBC pool. You will need to adjust the price before you take the plunge. I hope my attention is unnecessary, but this is not where I can dream upside down.
Nora has many traits that I admire – he is durable, has excellent control and has a clever curve. But I think there’s too much around the plate as he regularly has problems with home runs and his ERA for the past four years is a pointless 3.95. Philadelphia’s ballparks are basically neutral for run, but they are also homer friendly gardens. When Nora changes to his age 32 season, I see the downside more than upside down.
The sound I heard in mid-May 2024 was that the fantasy manager dropped the browns left and right as Houston had an ERA in his mid-7 generations. However, the Astros stuck in brown and he finally found the right pitch mix and pitched the remaining way to the outstanding 2.31 ERA. Brown has a type of profile that is likely to increase his ADP next month, so the sooner he drafts, the better. It was the 26-year-old season and he has always been considered a potential ace. He certainly appears to have understood it.
Glasnow is like most LAD Pitchers. The goal is to pitch around 100-130 innings in the regular season and get healthy in the playoffs. Glasnow was shockingly healthy for about four months last year, but elbow issues cost him the playoffs in addition to the final quarter. The Dodgers already have nine toes in the postseason. Glasnow is probably the pitcher who needs the most careful handling. Here you will get elite innings. That’s a problem with how many people.
After the March 7th news, I really don’t know how to price Kirby. His right shoulder hurts, he will open up the year with IL. Kirby wanted to keep throwing, and the MRI came back clean. that’s good. However, unless the price for gambling is attractive, I hate gambling pitchers who are already (to some extent) already hurt. I already have some Kirby stocks and I hope the best. However, that anxiety in my stomach has not disappeared.
Tier 5: Plausible Benefits
$8 Shane Buzz
$8 Zach Eflin
Jose Bellios for $8
$7 Brandon pfaadt
$7 *shohei ohtani
McKenzie Gore for $7
$7 lobby ray
Ryan Pepiot for $7
Spencer Alligator for $6
$6 Yu Darvish
$6 Brandon Woodruff
$6 Ronel Blanco
Taj Bradley for $5
5 dollar Tanner Houck
Borden Francis for $5
5 dollar walker brewer
Justin Burlander for $5
4 dollars Nathan Eobaldi
$4 Nick Pivetta
4 dollar Clark Schmitt
$4 Rangers Ares
Michael Wacha for $4
4 dollars biggest shazer
Pfaadt appears on a list of a fair amount of breakouts or sleeper cars, probably because he was an unlucky pitcher for the ERA last year (Batted-Ball Metrics says he was almost completely unlucky). Of course, if you iron it for natural luck, we are still talking about 3.78 ERA, little asset. However, strikeouts and walks are heading in the right direction, he has always had a pedigree and is only 26 years old. If you’re in a live draft, make sure you name it correctly. Put him on your upside list.
Belios is like the poor man’s Nora. He is a control master and durable king, and does not have enough creatures to rule the batter. Berrios posted a 3.60 ERA last year, but Batted-Ball data suggests he has been in good fortune. It’s the type of regression candidate you want to avoid. That said, Berrios still has a cheap ADP, and in some roster builds, reliable innings make sense. Understand that there are very few advantages here.
Player development is not always linear, but it’s good when that’s the case. It’s like answering a question in a mathematics SAT. We like patterns. Gore trimmed the walk and kept it similar to the strikeout rate while Homer was allowed. Now he’s entering the 26-year-old season. Unfortunately, NL East has three difficult opponents that you’ll see regularly, but Gore is priced on the floor and has a clear rise case.
