The sudden loss of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, to a motley group of rebels stunned much of the world last week. After years of brutal war, Syria’s civil war appeared to have reached a stalemate until rebel forces recaptured key cities. Forces loyal to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, may now be on the run from Turkish-backed militias with ties to Islamic extremists.
For more than a year, much of the world’s attention has been fascinated by the war between Iran (and its proxies) and Israel, but the broader Middle East and North Africa are rife with conflict. There are at least three serious civil wars in the region (Libya, Yemen, and Syria), including a very hot civil war in Sudan. Sudan’s civilian death toll is higher than the devastation in Gaza, where a similar death toll has occurred. As 100,000 dead. Moreover, this huge country is facing the collapse of key institutions, resulting in famine, public health emergencyand millions of displaced people. If Libya’s precarious balance of power were to collapse, as it did in Syria last week, at least four conflicts would erupt in the region, straining the response capacity of the United Nations, the International Red Cross and others, and forcing even basic humanitarian assistance. There is also a possibility that it will not be possible. assistance.
Since the 2011 Arab uprisings (previously optimistically known as the “Arab Spring”), the world’s most authoritarian regions have become the most vulnerable. After uprisings that have toppled governments and destabilized several others from Tunisia to Yemen, stable political deals remain unlikely to replace them, and violence is available to those seeking change. It is the only option.
Although there are no rebellions in the majority of Arab countries, this apparent peace masks intense political tensions. The most promising democratic experiment to emerge from the Arab uprisings came to an end when Tunisian President Kais Saied shut down the country’s democratically elected parliament in 2021. The Middle East is now even more repressive than it was in 2010. The dictatorships that have emerged since 2011 have lobotomized their civil society into an untouchable state, but have yet to reach a lasting agreement on what to offer their people in return. Connivance.
A new class of autocrats, including Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, have long-held commitments to the Palestinian cause and the country’s untouchability. By undermining norms, they give off an aura of invincibility. Muslim clergy class. With their control over a repressive apparatus consisting of innovative technological surveillance borrowed from China and an old-fashioned secret police force, these dictators are able to crush changes that their previous rulers could only dream of. , but it did not necessarily lead to long-term change. stability and legitimacy of the regime.
No one exemplifies this dangerous dynamic more than MBS. After coming to power in 2017 as the youngest Saudi crown prince since the 1950s, he signaled a desire to change the status quo by imprisoning dozens of royals at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel. Under Kafkaesque accusations of corruption. There is no clear line between what the Crown owns and what the state owns. By any reasonable definition, MBS and his cronies are: very flashy wealth Like the people he accused, he no longer accepted it honestly. Nevertheless, the Saudi public largely approved of his “anti-corruption” campaign, which he used to attack conservative religious groups. allow women to driveopen the country sightseeingand recently, jennifer lopez concert In Riyadh. At the same time, he had a reputation for brutality, especially after killing or dismembering people. washington post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Like other dictators in the region, MBS’s reforms replace reforms that many say are needed, such as transparency and accountable government, with flashy destruction.
But MBS may have run out of tricks. Declining oil revenues have cut short his signature ambition to build a megacity called Neom across hundreds of miles of desert in a straight line, hosting thousands of high-tech entrepreneurs. After spending an inordinate amount of money on consultants and architects, the plans have recently been significantly scaled back. more modest design. Similarly, it succeeded in securing the Kingdom’s glitzy ownership of the LIV Golf League. all star player Still no meaningful results from the PGA Tour. tourism income That can offset the staggering costs. Faced with Saudi Arabia’s expanding population and falling oil prices, MBS may soon find his bread and circuses too expensive.
The fundamental problem is that authoritarianism is expensive. For example, Egypt’s el-Sissi military regime is funneling hundreds, if not billions, of dollars to its people. Dollars are paid for state contracts with military companies. Companies that compete directly with the struggling private sector. Without this cash, El-Sissi could face threats from generals defending his rule. Similarly, the UAE public broadly supports Mohammed bin Zayed, despite his peace agreement with Israel and abandonment of Islamic norms as of Friday-Saturday weekend. 90% of Emirati citizens have lucrative jobs. Join the government and receive free healthcare, education, and interest-free real estate loans. While the Gulf states may still have enough wealth to avoid conflict in the short term, it is less clear whether they will be able to continue doing so once they have completed their transition away from the oil economy. Gulf states financed an authoritarian push in the region in the mid-2010s, propping up Egypt’s military regime and Libya’s warlords, but falling oil prices and population growth have combined to strain Gulf states’ finances. has been done. big middle dismal economic performance Over the past five years.
Warning lights of economic crisis are flashing across the region. both egypt and tunisia Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over bailouts continue, with countries on the brink of economic collapse. The Egyptian regime appears to be particularly vulnerable as their policy of intervention in the Israel-Hamas war is unfavorable to the Egyptian government. Nationalist core. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s cynical president is more in tune with the rest of the population. Arab feelings towards IsraelHowever, no plan has yet been formulated to prevent financial collapse. Both these countries witnessed a wave of mass mobilization in 2011, with the rise of a new generation that saw a gap between the promises of those revolutions and the current state of society. depressing current reality. While it is impossible to predict whether or when these tensions will develop into new popular movements demanding regime change, it is clear that dictatorships are not the only regimes that have yet to gain popular consent through economic growth or semi-liberalization. It is.
We should not think that Arabs will accept this situation permanently. The Arab uprisings are not truly over. Several other Arab countries survived the first wave of the Arab uprisings in 2011, but experienced similar waves of destabilizing conflict several years later. Algeria’s 2019 Hirak movement mobilized millions of people to protest each week and succeeded in forcing the aging military dictator to step down. The movement seemed unstoppable until the coronavirus pandemic struck and protesters were forced to stay home. A new military government took office and soaring oil prices after the pandemic helped calm public fears, but this year’s oil glut break a state lease.
Around the same time in 2019, Lebanese youth began working towards a fundamental solution. transform this country’s sectarian systemcalls for an end to a system of rulers tied to religion that protects themselves at the expense of the country. While these protests shook the political system, the pandemic weakened the movement before achieving any real results, leaving the question of reform unresolved. The devastation in southern Lebanon over the past two months, combined with the recent assassination of Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, has raised serious questions about the country’s future after the conflict ends.
Similarly, we’ve seen Jordan. Protests break out regularly From young Jordanians who are fed up with the peace treaty with Israel. The King of Jordan is known for his sensitive policy decisions. The government is also leaning toward authoritarianism. In recent years.
Rather than answering big questions about political legitimacy, a new generation of Arab strongmen has relied on the repression and demobilization of civil society, along with extravagant promises of economic growth to govern. Authoritarian deals can last for long periods of time, as the durable dictatorships that preceded the Arab uprisings demonstrated. But Middle East leaders have yet to chart a path beyond repression and corrupt state-led “development” that requires a constant injection of aid. Authoritarianism is expensive, and it is unclear who will continue to foot the bill for dictators in the Middle East.
This ever-present vulnerability, combined with civil wars in Sudan, Syria, Libya, and Yemen, makes the region unusually vulnerable to shocks such as the recent rebel success in northwest Syria. Although the Arab uprisings did not bring democracy, there is no reason to believe that these contentious movements have ended. Ostensibly, a peaceful and prosperous Middle East is in everyone’s interest, but in reality, leaders in the region and beyond are struggling to find a realistic path toward that goal. I haven’t found it yet.
