Every week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we dive deep into some of the league’s biggest storylines to determine whether trends are actually based or if fiction is moving forward.
(Last week: The NBA is ridiculous (in a good way))
Facts or Fiction: The NBA season is too long
Injury, load management, tanking. They may be the three worst aspects of the NBA.
And they all could benefit from the shortened season.
No matter what data you research, injuries are diagnosed more frequently in the NBA. A survey by the New York City Academy of Data Science shows that the percentage of games missed each season has increased from about 15% to 20% over the past 25 years, or around four games per player. Other studies have shown a steady increase since the 1980s and a recent seasonal surge, including this.
Although we can argue that it is a consequence of medical advances in reporting injuries, there is no doubt that 1) demand at the youth level, 2) athletic ability of players, and 3) ground that must be covered in the age of pace and space, all contribute to increased risk of injury.
Not only will players be injured fewer cases, but shortening of the season will reduce the amount of fatigue that leads to further examples of fatigue and tears. Even reducing the season from 82 to 72 games could eliminate consecutive games from the schedule, two games each for all Interconference opponents, and three games on the other side of each Campference rival.
This also needs to be addressed with load management. The NBA recently enacted a 65-game rule for players to qualify for All-NBA and other award status. This gives the idea that the league believes this is an 80% threshold – is a very good snapshot for assessing someone’s season. Why not try to create a season length and get everyone to play 100% of the campaign? Shouldn’t that be the goal?
It makes sense that tanking will also decline even in a shortened season. As the teams hunt deeper this year, they were able to eliminate the end of each season’s growth (current period) where many teams promised to lose.
If shortening the season makes so much sense, why isn’t the NBA already doing it? money.
The answer is always money.
Depending on the market, teams can generate as much as $5 million per game. Eliminating even 10 games could reduce profit margins for some teams or eliminate them entirely for others. That’s a problem. Team owners aren’t trying to ignite revenue, even if the franchise’s value is ridiculous.
However, coupled with the rarity of the game and the increased frequency of player availability, the product will be significantly improved and sell for more money. It may not be big news for consumers who are already paying small amounts to get into the game, but it’s better than the alternative.
Because now a lot of people pay for one product and receive another.
The Denver Nuggets played a nationwide game this week against the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray missed both injuries. The entire slate game during this period has many players absent due to injury, load management or tanking, and a combination of all three will result in a watering league struggling with airspace amidst March’s madness.
According to Yahoo Sports contributor Tom Haberstroh, a total of 21 players who have created an All-Star or All-NBA team this or the last three seasons did not participate in the 11-game schedule on Wednesday. Imagine paying hundreds of dollars to watch the Philadelphia 76ers visit the lightning in Oklahoma City.
If you choose most random games from the NBA mid-March slate, you will find a similar scenario. You will receive a message over time. Do not invest in the league during this time of year. Gambling isn’t worth it. We barely bet the rest of the season, but it feels like we’re playing with higher seeds here and there. The title favourite and most often playoff fields have been established for a long time. Shortening the season won’t eliminate the thrill of a playoff hunt. In fact, it just increases it.
Instead, why not invest in the league’s overall health in the meantime? Shorter seasons will not only make it available to more players immediately. Theoretically, they need to expand their careers. For a league that takes pride in selling nostalgia in real time, it’s not a small supplemental benefit from a few games.
It means a lot for many reasons, and for one reason it doesn’t make sense – the economic benefits of the league that sold the latest franchise for $6.1 billion. That’s why it doesn’t happen. That doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t.
Decision: Facts. The NBA season is too long.
