Overall, the front lines of Syria’s civil war have been at a standstill since 2020, although there have been brief periods of violent clashes. For the past four years, Assad has controlled much of the country and its largest city. The HTS-led coalition, tolerated by Turkey and made up mostly of Islamist rebels, remains squeezed in the Idlib enclave and parts of the countryside west of Aleppo, while Turkish forces and Turkish-backed militias guard the former Kurdish territory. The northern border of Aleppo. And in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S. ally against the jihadist Islamic State, has been largely abandoned.
The attack changed everything dramatically, but the outcome is difficult to predict. President Erdoğan is currently holding many of the strings, but whether they will slip from his hands is another question. He certainly doesn’t want things to get out of control and Assad collapses, but that’s partly because HTS is sticking to its script and consolidating its organization in Aleppo, much like it’s doing in Idlib. It may depend on whether they focus on establishing an Islamist-style government. . If Assad’s defenses collapse and it storms south of Hama, Erdogan may find himself more inspired than he expected.
Turkish leaders have been pressuring Assad for the past few months to agree to a settlement, but the Syrian leader has rejected the offer, saying Turkey will first surrender thousands of troops and its backed militias. insisted on withdrawing from Syrian territory. Some observers therefore see the attack as part of Ankara’s efforts to pressure Assad to negotiate a political solution to the conflict. It would give President Erdogan the opportunity to repatriate the 4.7 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey.
A settlement is likely to come at a significant cost to the Kurds, and would also involve a reduction in semi-autonomy in the northeast. Türkiye and its proxies have already expanded their control over Kurdish-held towns and villages adjacent to the border. And over the weekend, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army captured the Kurdish stronghold of Tal Rifaat, along with other SDF towns and villages east of Aleppo.
So where does this leave Russia? Like Assad’s other key allies, Iran and Hezbollah, Moscow is focused on other priorities, namely Ukraine. And so far, Russian warplanes have only flown limited bombing sorties in support of Assad’s forces, suggesting that the Kremlin is aware of the upcoming offensive and is not dissatisfied with the pressure on Assad’s regime. Speculation is increasing even more.
The Russian government has also called on President Assad to reconcile with President Erdogan and seek a political solution to end the civil war. Doing so would open Syria to lucrative trade for Russian companies and would likely keep Syria’s strategic air and naval bases from being at risk. Throughout the summer, the Kremlin repeatedly tried to set up direct talks between the Syrian and Turkish leaders, but to no avail.
