Election 2024: The big political changes that explain it

The left’s hopes for fundamental change from the 2010s have collided with the realities of the 2020s.

The energy of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign and the George Floyd protests have become a distant memory. Some members of the squad moved to the Democratic mainstream, while others lost in the primaries. Several progressive prosecutors elected in recent years have either been forced out of office (either by voters or because of scandal), or appear to be heading in that direction.

In spaces dominated by Democrats, such as cities and mainstream media, there is a growing backlash against the left. The ambitious, progressive rallying cries of just a few years ago, such as defunding the police and Medicare for All, are now absent from the discussion. Politicians who have enthusiastically cultivated left-wing activists are now increasingly supporting centrists. The most notable is Vice President Kamala Harris. Vice President Harris has given up many of the positions she won while running in the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential primary.

Overall, progressives seem to have moved from being on the offensive to being on the defensive, both in politics and in the country’s culture.

Of course, the gains made by progressives over the past two decades or so have not been completely wiped out. The Democratic Party is still much further to the left than it was 10, and certainly 20 years ago (see, for example, my recent article on the rise of New Progressive Economics).

But as bloggers Noah Smith and Tyler Cowen argue, there are increasing signs that the leftward shift of the party and the country’s culture in general is halting. In some respects, there is indeed a reversal. Semaphore’s David Weigel argued last week that “No matter who wins, the United States is moving to the right,” and cited issues that progressives are on the defensive about: “immigration rights, LGBTQ rights, climate change policy, criminal justice.” judicial reform.”

Being defensive on the left is not new, it’s a historical norm. Explosions of activist energy and successful reforms are usually followed by long periods of backlash during which the new status quo persists or at least reverses some of the recent changes.

Still, it’s certainly a change from how politics has been for much of the 21st century. So why and how did this change occur? Why did progressive progress occur in the first place, and why did it stop?

Although historical periodization is difficult, here is a rough attempt.

From around 1980 until 2005, the left had little to do with national politics. The Cold War has ended and capitalism has risen. Republicans are moving to the right, Democrats are moving to the center. The country cracked down on criminals, illegal immigrants, and out-of-work welfare recipients. Patriotism became compulsory on 9/11. Same-sex marriage was considered politically harmful.

But the period from 2005 to 2020 was, broadly speaking, a period in which progressives and leftists became increasingly influential within the Democratic Party, in Democratic-controlled areas, and in the larger culture. It can be said that this is a time of growing progressive ambitions.

The disastrous second term of George W. Bush’s administration marked the beginning of this change, undermining the credibility of Republican governance. This enabled the election of America’s first black president, Barack Obama, whose policies were surprisingly ambitious and progressive compared to the Clinton era.

The leftward shift of the Democratic Party accelerated in the 2010s, and we saw the following:

Essentially, on many issues, the “Overton Window” (the boundary at which political and policy ideas are considered suitable for mainstream discussion, rather than fringe or patently absurd) has shifted far to the left. Opened.

Trump’s election did not stop the left’s influence from increasing. In fact, it has raised the stakes of politics, heightened passions and intensified them. (Trump’s rise has simultaneously widened Overton’s window even further on some issues, as powerful Republicans increasingly embrace bigotry and ignore democratic norms.)

There was a growing belief among Democrats that the establishment’s approach had failed and that bold new progressive ideas were needed. In the party’s 2020 presidential primaries, most of the candidates, including Harris, leaned to the left, appealing to activist groups. Joe Biden, the most old-fashioned major candidate, won, but instead of pivoting entirely to the centrists in the general election, he embraced many progressive policies. It was politically necessary to steer the Democratic Party in 2020.

The year then continued, with the country roiled further by the pandemic and battles over elections, while the George Floyd protests led to a reckoning with racial injustice, and violent, often controversial protests in communities, businesses, and organizations. It was developed in a way that encouraged

Things feel different in the Biden era.

This is partly due to the constraints and disappointments that always exist when political parties try to translate bold electoral policies into actual governance. The narrow majority in Congress limited Democrats’ legislative chances (and they lost the House). Meanwhile, the conservative Supreme Court blocked some of Biden’s actions, including canceling student loans and rolling back abortion rights protections.

But the trend was broader. Urban Democrats, struggling with rising crime and complaining of an inability to cope with the influx of immigrants, have ruled out cuts to police departments. Companies laid off DEI employees. Mainstream media companies have become increasingly influenced by progressive causes (and sensitive to left-wing criticism) in the 2010s, and are now more openly asserting journalistic independence and challenging progressive ideas. There is. The anti-Israel protests met with fierce backlash at the university. As debates over social justice became less intense and more frequent, commentators began to proclaim that the “woke” had reached its peak.

What they all have in common is that Democrats, corporations, and the media all have less respect for the progressives who have tried to push them to the left.

And I would argue that the main reason for that is that there is a widespread feeling among many centrist, center-left, and politically neutral people that the left has gone too far, or that it’s messed up. do.

In fact, one reason for the left’s resurgence in the 21st century is that they had been irrelevant for so long at that point that it was difficult to blame them for the country’s current problems. While the flaws of centrism, neoliberalism, and conservatism are clear and obvious, leftist and progressive ideas simply haven’t been really tried for some time.

But by 2020, the left’s influence on our politics and culture had grown enormously. And while Trump’s critics were united around a common cause to oust him when he was in office, they have become alarmed by recent developments since he left office. I felt that the people I was holding were freed and I was able to concentrate more on them.

The right has become more effective at stoking these fears. Boycotts of Bud Light and Target by conservatives helped send a message that it is dangerous for companies to become too political. Elon Musk bought Twitter, which was at the center of social justice trends in the 2010s, and turned it into the right-wing X. Christopher Rufo helped spark a national war on DEI.

But Democrats and progressives were also simply struggling to address a variety of difficult governance issues. The post-pandemic years have been tough times to rise to power. Incumbent political parties around the world are struggling. But in the United States, progressive ideas have been blamed, fairly or unfairly, for causing or exacerbating problems such as inflation, border chaos, and crime.

Some commentators who previously aligned themselves with progressives are now having second thoughts. “I have to say that I now doubt the practical effectiveness of some of the policies that I have adopted in the past,” Smith wrote in a Substack newsletter last week. He said he now believes some of these policies are bad ideas, others suffer from “failed implementation,” and still others have no path to widespread political popularity. said. (Mr. Smith is just one of many commentators who have become increasingly critical of the left in recent years.)

To what extent is the broader public antipathetic to the left?I hesitate to generalize about public opinion, which includes many opposing views. Immigration is the issue where polls show the clearest backlash against progressive ideas. On other issues (such as the economy), it is difficult to disentangle frustration from Biden’s record. While some staunch progressives lost in the primaries, others held on easily. In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats performed well in battleground states. But Republicans have increased their support in blue states like New York, which could signal dissatisfaction with governance in deep blue areas.

But overall, Harris’ position clearly reflects the idea that many of her left-wing positions from four years ago will hurt her in the 2024 election.

At the same time, there is a noticeable decline in the energy and enthusiasm of progressive activists. While many certainly remain committed to their long-standing cause, others are concerned about Israel’s war in Gaza, an issue that has sharply divided the Democratic Party, and the reluctance of Democratic leaders to embrace the left. disengage from or shift focus to opposition to

Perhaps if Trump wins, there will be another surge of progressive energy against him, but perhaps too many people are now burnt out and apathetic, and that mobilization has passed since Trump’s first term. It won’t come close. And the backlash against the Trump administration will not necessarily spur the Democratic Party’s leftward shift again.

Activists are understandably disappointed and demotivated when major change proves difficult to achieve.

Activist Bill Moyer wrote in 1987 that “every major social movement of the past 20 years has experienced a major collapse.” “Activists believed that their movement had failed, that the institutions of power were too strong, and that their efforts were in vain.” Then comes fatigue, burnout, and organizational crisis. Some move on to new causes.

But Moyer insisted that’s not necessarily the end of the story for these movements. The next step, he wrote, is for activists to pivot and focus on the long, slow work of changing public opinion in their favor.

So one possibility is that we are heading towards a political situation similar to the second half of the 20th century. There, the left will be weakened and politically powerless for years, if not decades.

However, that is not a sure thing. The challenge now for progressives is to rally activists around ideas and causes that can energize them and gain public support, while addressing questions that have arisen about their capacity.

If they can pull it off, this period of leftist decline may prove to be only temporary. Otherwise, their stay in the political wilderness could be prolonged.