Egg prices are rising, putting the household staple back in the spotlight as consumers worry not just about inflation but about absolute price levels.
July marked the third consecutive month that egg prices increased year-over-year, reversing a year of relative declines, due to the ongoing battle against highly pathogenic avian influenza, known as HPAI or avian influenza for short.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this week showed that prices for this vital food ingredient rose 19.1% in July from a year earlier, compared with just 2.9% for all CPI items over the same period.
Rising egg prices have become a concern for consumers during the pandemic as eggs are widely used in everyday cooking. The rising cost of eggs and other food items has been a top concern for price-strapped consumers, which has worsened consumer sentiment in recent days.
But the latest wave of inflation appears more related to a roughly 8% surge in inflation from March to April that could be linked to seasonal patterns of avian influenza. This was the biggest month-on-month increase since spring 2023.
“The short answer is, I think it has to do with avian flu,” says Caitlin Hubbell, a market research analyst at the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind. “It’s unfortunate, but highly pathogenic avian flu is still around.”
Avian flu caused a historic outbreak in 2022 before surging again in late 2023. More recently, resurgences in Colorado and California have hurt supplies, Hubbell said.
Hubbell said demand for eggs is considered “inelastic,” meaning consumers typically buy the same amount regardless of price increases. On the other hand, consumers typically don’t stock up when prices fall, she noted.
Inelastic items tend to experience larger price swings with even small changes in supply, she said, which could highlight how an avian flu outbreak could affect the prices customers see on grocery store shelves.
For shoppers, that has translated into higher prices: The average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs surpassed $3 in July for the first time in more than a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite this re-acceleration, prices are still more than 20% below last year’s levels. That said, egg prices, as tracked within the CPI basket, are up about 42% compared to July 2021.
Looking ahead, Hubbell said price trends will depend on the avian flu situation, but he is hopeful that fewer cases of the virus will occur in the coming seasons, which will give consumers some peace of mind.
“We don’t know,” Hubbell said. “It all depends on the scale and scope of the impact of HPAI.”
