Ecuadorian Trump? The rise of Daniel Novore could reconstruct Latin American politics

When Ecuadorian President Daniel Novore attended Donald Trump’s inauguration last month, the symbolism was not lost in many of his country. That was a calculated move as Ecuador is scheduled to hold a national election on Sunday. It was the ultimate push from politicians who are being hampered by the rapid rise that could echo not only in his country but throughout the region.

Populist bravado’s nobore blend, aggressive security policies, and brash brash’s collaboration with Trump’s politics have positioned him at 37 as a formidable figure in the changing landscape of Latin America. A political meditation from the Banana Dynasty, he took advantage of the fear and frustration of the Ecuadorians to take office in the 2023 Snap election and is now able to win again as an incumbent.

Ecuador will vote on Sunday in the first round of elections that could be leaked on April 13th. While 14 candidates are in the race, polls suggest that the top candidates will be the National Democratic Action Party (ADN) and Louis Sangónzales nobois. of the Civic Revolution (RC), a leftist who lost to him in the 2023 special election.

Once an island of relative peace within Latin America, Ecuador has tackled unprecedented violence over the past five years. The strategic location between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest producers of cocaine, has transformed the country into a hub of drug trafficking.

Murder rates surged amid a gang war over controlling favorable drug pathways, driving a sharp rise in Ecuadorian migration. CBP) Report a record 124,000 encounters with the Ecuadorian citizen in 2024 – UP from 24,900 in 2022.

For 13 months in office, Novoa declared a war on organized crime and embraced the “Manodura” (Iron Fist) approach that resonated with voters. In 2024, authorities arrested more than 60,000 criminals and confiscated 280 tons of illegal drugs, up 29% from 2023.

The Ecuadorians are desperate and responding favorably to greater security and better employment opportunities, and polls keep Novore surprisingly far from their first round victory.

“People wanted a strong response to organized crime, but Novoa was delivered,” said Grealdis Gonzalez, an expert in Ecuadorian for the International Crisis Group. “He took advantage of the moment when the country needed moderates, but as the election approached, he doubled his security agenda.”

Planning to militarize Phoenix and Ecuador

Noboa’s “Planning Phoenix” turned the battle against organized crime into military operations and declared “internal armed conflicts” against 22 criminal organizations. He deployed troops in prisons, harbors and city streets, and after launching coordinated attacks in Guayaquil, he dispatched troops to fight the gangs.

Its similarities with El Salvador’s Naive Buquel (a new best friend in Washington, Central America) are hard to overlook, and Novoa doesn’t mind comparing. “We have already completed a conversation with an international group that built a prison in El Salvador,” he announced in January, intent to replicate Bukere’s controversial but popular crime crackdown on locally popular crimes. indicates.

In Ecuador, the consequences of Novoa’s reaction to crime remain mixed. The government says violent deaths fell by 15% in 2024, but critics argue that statistics are deeper and masking unresolved issues. January has reappeared a gangster who was forced to be hidden early in the crackdown as it chronicles Ecuador’s most violent month and records 755 murders.

Fernando Carrión, a security expert at the Latin American Institute of Social Sciences (FLACSO) in Ecuador, said Noboa’s policies initially created stability, but the revival of violence revealed the limits of military power.

“The security situation is not out of control,” Karion said. “The murder rate is no longer doubled, but it remains very high. Security benefits are not retained without addressing structural issues such as corruption, weak institutions, and economic instability.”

Novoa’s pivot against Trump

Born in the US, Novore can trace political advantages to similar populist strategies pioneered by the US president, reiterating Trump-style governance through strongman rhetoric, harsh criminal policies, and tariffs, and domestically Move forward with the goal. Novore imposed tariffs on Mexico shortly after Trump threatened to do the same.

Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue says Novore doesn’t hide his intention to match Trump’s priorities. “He announced that his imposition of tariffs on Mexico shortly after Trump announced the same thing was a clear indication of Nobore’s desire to be US president and rock step in style and entity,” Shifter said. . “It was definitely politically motivated and took place just before the election.”

Last April, Ecuadorian police and military attacked the Mexican embassy in Quito’s capital, where former vice president Jorge Glass, who was granted exile. The move has been widely condemned as a violation of international law, and is a critical moment in Novore’s presidency, indicating his willingness to prioritize domestic security concerns about diplomatic norms.

“In the country, this has made him more popular,” Gonzalez pointed out. “It positioned him as someone who was fighting corruption, particularly the Koreisomo (a left-wing political movement founded by former President Rafael), represented in Ecuador. However, internationally, That attracted a lot of criticism.”

His government has also drawn attention to US approaches to immigration policy. Ecuadorian journalist Andres Barbano pointed to Ecuador’s quiet acceptance of flights of exiled migrants, including reports of bondaged pregnant women sent back from the United States.

“In an interview, Foreign Minister Gabriella clearly stated, “These are Donald Trump’s immigration policies and they must be respected,” Barbano said. “It raises questions about what other US directives will undoubtedly follow.”

A death blow to Correísmo?

For most of the past decade, the left-wing Koleimo movement dominated Ecuador’s political landscape. However, the rise of Novoa and the emergence of his ADN party are considered a turning point.

“It would be considered a serious blow (almost a death blow), especially if Novoa wins in the first round,” Barbano said. “Coleizmo has been the most powerful political force in the country in the last decade. The emergence of new parties like ADN, which now carries the numbers of former Prians, Daniel’s father’s party, is even more symbolic of that. It’s there.”

However, concerns have risen about Noboa’s approach to power. His critics, including constitutional experts, argue that he bypassed legal norms and accumulated enforcement at an astonishing speed. The Constitutional Court recently ruled that some of Novore’s decisions are unconstitutional and promote fear of election fraud from the state system, not from opposition candidates.

“There’s a lot of hope for February 9th,” said journalist Barbano. “It’s no secret that Novore has bypassed some laws over the last few months. I’m not the only one who’s saying this. Lawyers, constitutionalists and experts have also pointed it out. ”

The road ahead

According to the polls, the most likely scenario is that Noboa will be re-elected in the second round, if not the first. He is committed to professional business reform with a focus on attracting foreign investment to grow Ecuador’s stagnant economy and creating jobs. He is expected to increase his increasingly aggressive approach to tackling organized crime and to strengthen cooperation with the potential Trump administration.

However, his ability to govern effectively depends on concurrent legislative elections. “The relationship between Ecuadorian parliament and enforcement is often shaking, making progress in key policies difficult and increasing instability,” Shifter noted. “If Nobore’s ADN party secures a key bloc, it will promote his agenda. Otherwise he may find himself politically constrained.”

Ultimately, Sunday’s election represents more than just a national contest. This is a referendum on “Mano Dura” security policies, the country’s economic trajectory, and changing political dynamics in Latin America. Novoa’s trajectory suggests he can become a key player in a broader shift to right-wing governance in the region, joining forces with leaders such as Argentina’s Javier Mirei and El Salvador’s Buquere .

For Ecuador, the stakes are clear. Novore has built his presidency on his promise to restore order, but as violence surges again, questions remain. Will his Trump-inspired Buquel-style crackdown bring lasting peace to Ecuador, or will it only deepen the country’s crisis?

Voters either decide whether to double Noboa’s gambling or demand a different vision for their country’s future.