ap photo Former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump salutes during a campaign rally at the Gaylord Rockies Resort and Convention Center in Aurora, Colorado, on October 11.
The incoming Trump administration has threatened mass deportations soon after taking office in January, and many residents are waiting to see what happens and are concerned about the economic impact. Marshalltown has dealt with situations like this before.
On December 12, 2006, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided the Swift & Company (now JBS) pork plant. ICE agents arrested 90 people and transported them to Camp Dodge in Johnston.
The Immigration Policy Center then reported that total retail sales in Marshalltown were down 3%. Swift suffered losses of $45 million to $50 million. Fewer homes were sold to Latino families, and the number of foreclosures against Latino families increased by 50 percent.
Anil Kumar, an economics professor at the University of Iowa’s Tippy College of Business, said the 2006 impact is not surprising. He predicted that if a similar situation were to occur in the future, Marshalltown would be similarly or even more affected.
“Mass-scale deportations are likely to exacerbate these problems, impacting not only JBS workers but also the broader immigrant community that supports local businesses and housing needs,” Kumar said. said. “Businesses may struggle to fill vacancies, and the population decline will lead to lower consumer spending, negatively impacting multiple sectors of the local economy.”
He said Marshalltown could face labor shortages and lower consumer spending, as well as higher costs for housing and services. Reducing the number of JBS employees could increase production costs and lead to higher prices for consumers. Kumar added that the housing market could also take a hit, as fewer people will be able to buy or rent homes, potentially reducing property values and tax revenues.
“A general decline in economic activity could strain local government budgets and impact services such as schools, infrastructure and community programs,” he said.
Alfonso Medina, owner of La Caleta Mexican Grill, said he has spoken with many Marshalltown residents and the main concern expressed to him is the devastation of the local economy, the permanent loss of jobs and businesses. He said it was losses, unsold homes and buildings, and declining home values. And the population and social security benefits are at risk.
“I belong to a network of hundreds of business owners in the restaurant industry across the country,” he said. “Remember that the hospitality industry, which includes restaurants, bars, hotels, and more, employs the largest number of workers in this country.”
Medina said recent studies have shown that illegal immigrants contribute billions of dollars to the national economy each year, primarily through taxes paid on their income.
“Despite not being eligible for many government benefits, they paid approximately $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022 alone, a significant portion of which went to Social Security and Medicare. “Even though these programs themselves are not available,” he said. “Deporting all illegal immigrants, including those with no criminal record, will have a direct impact on our people.”
Kumar agreed with Medina about the significant impact on Marshall County’s economy.
“Immigrants play an important role in America’s workforce, and this is especially true for the JBS plant and the many small businesses in Marshall County,” he said. “Deportations reduce the availability of local labor and make it difficult for businesses to operate efficiently. Industries that rely heavily on migrant workers, such as agriculture, food processing, and hospitality, are particularly hard hit. This could increase labor costs for businesses, reduce production, and increase prices for goods and services in the area.
Medina said there is growing concern among small business owners that a mass deportation of farmworkers, employees and customers could have serious economic consequences. More than 50 percent of the country’s agricultural workforce is undocumented. He asked how businesses would obtain their produce and what the cost would be for the small quantities of produce available.
“That cost will have to be passed on to the consumer,” Medina said. “If consumers do not agree to pay higher prices for goods, those businesses will be forced to close, resulting in the permanent loss of tax-generating facilities and millions of jobs. ”
To reduce the potential impact of deportation, Kumar suggested business owners and residents do four things:
Advocate for policies and programs that support legal immigration pathways to stabilize the workforce.
Educate elected officials about the fiscal benefits of immigration and the potential economic harms of deportation, including reduced tax revenue and weakened fiscal health.
Build networks and partnerships to attract and retain workers from other regions.
Businesses that could be hit hard, such as agriculture and construction, will need to work with governments to plan for workforce disruptions.
crime
Incoming ICE Director Tom Homan said in interviews with various national media outlets that deportations begin with immigrants who pose a threat to the public. It’s unclear if or where Marshall County will be included on the list of focused locations. At an October 2023 Senate Judiciary Committee meeting, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) presented a list of four Iowa counties where three cartels are present: Sinaloa, BLO, and CJNG. Marshall was the only county known to have all three.
Grassley received information from county sheriffs in Iowa, including Marshall County Sheriff Joel Phillips. Based on criminal drug activity, all three cartels remain active in Marshall County, Phillips said.
Grassley could not say where Marshall County falls in the deportation priority list, but stressed the importance of keeping Iowans safe.
“My top priority is to ensure the safety of Iowans and Americans. I will work closely with President Trump’s administration to utilize current pathways for legal immigration while ensuring the safety of cartel activity.” We will crack down on them and protect our borders.”
Phillips said federal agencies will likely identify cartel regions within the United States and focus on specific areas within those regions.
“The territory spans multiple states, and we don’t know if Marshall County will be one of them,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that they will evaluate it before they start dismantling it because of the crime that is being committed in human trafficking. That’s my opinion. It takes a lot of work between state and federal agencies. It will take some adjustment.”
Although some citizens may hope that crime will decrease once deportations begin, studies have not shown that the results are in line with expectations, Kumar said.
“Previous increases in deportation rates have done little to ease resource constraints on local police forces,” he said. “This suggests that while mass deportations destroy economies and community cohesion, the impact on public safety may be minimal. Cartel activity in Marshall County Although it may involve unique challenges, it is important to note that criminal activity by illegal immigrants is minimal; in this case, mass deportation represents a relatively small increase in criminal activity that it seeks to address. may impose greater economic and social costs.”
similarities
Medina said Marshalltown residents are like everyone else, living with the threat of deportation. They own a home and business in Marshalltown. They pay insurance premiums and taxes without receiving benefits.
“They serve you, they cook for you, they sit next to your child in class, they have kids on the same sports teams,” he said. “They opened the door to their culture and shared with you all the delicious food at the market. The only difference between you and them is (a piece of paper) the size of a debit card. That’s it.”
However, Medina said this threat is not new as all administrations have taken such actions.
“Of course, there is always a fear in the minds of illegal immigrants that this will have a direct impact, but the people who are deported are also people who have been convicted of crimes. “It’s important to remember that there are many,” he said. “At the very least, this would be the most common sense and sustainable way to do it. I understand why[Trump]would want to push this idea of mass deportation, especially because of the audience he appealed to.” Regardless, most promises made by candidates during election campaigns are rarely fulfilled.”
Medina stressed that he believes in strong and secure borders and that he has visited them several times in the past. He said that the desired security cannot be achieved by one side of the fence alone, and that Mexico also needs to work together to achieve this.
“America has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to think critically and find ways to morally and economically benefit from this situation,” he said.
Medina said hundreds of undocumented immigrants want the same thing. Because they work for the American Dream, they want neighborhoods that are safe for their children, free of criminals, gangs, and drugs.
“I believe there are millions of people who have worked and lived here for decades and have earned the right to be integrated into society without fear of deportation,” Medina said. “I believe the time has come to grant amnesty to all those who are doing good deeds here, and if not, there will be plenty of hard jobs available for all of us to apply for. Do you want a job?”
undocumented census number
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 39,917 people live in Marshall County, 3,485 of whom are noncitizens. Of the non-citizen residents, 1,708 entered the country since 2010. 1,084 between 2000 and 2009. From 1990 to 1999, it was 556 people. 137 before 1990.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 1,856 of the residents are male and 1,629 are female. Of the residents, 2,317 are from Latin America, 775 from Asia, 258 from Africa, 70 from other parts of North America, and 65 from Europe.
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Contact Lana Bloodstream
641-753-6611 extension 210 or
lbradstream@timesrepublican.com.
