There’s nothing that scrambles the mind like Trump’s press conference. On January 7th, at Florida’s Winter Palace, the presidential election was meditated on the annexation of Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. It was a combination of free connection, joyous provocation, and serious, world-changing intentions.
On January 7th, the House of Representatives, who had little notice, passed the Lakeken Riley Act. This made it easier to enforce unauthorized immigrants for minor crimes such as shoplifting. Immigration is where the next administration is likely to direct its first efforts after taking office on January 20th. And once again, Donald Trump promises a cocktail that will crush the same heart. Illegal immigration is a problem that serves destructive policies that please the wild and crowds, and is an issue that presents beneficial reform opportunities. Trump’s path to choose can not only say something about his presidency, but also cause ripples in many other rich countries with political issues with immigration.
It erupted at the border for at least a while under President Joe Biden. Many Democrats responded to the cost of the election by denouncement of voters. Recent figures show that the Census Bureau recorded a net increase of 2.8 million immigrants in 2023. The share of foreign-born American residents has been high since 1885, when Frederick Trump left Germany for New York, but that’s the best. century. Most Americans welcome legal immigrants, and the country is good at assimilating them, but when immigrants claim asylum and disappear into the shadowy labor market while awaiting a court hearing It’s entitled to.
Trump will take office with the obligation to strengthen control. In the campaign, he expanded the abominable rhetoric that marked his first term, talking about immigration about “sucking American blood.” That means that fewer people actually deported than Barack Obama and fewer people actually deported this time seemingly wanting to focus on immigration. His vice-chief of staff is Stephen Miller, who is eager to limit legal and illegal migration. His border emperor is Tom Homan, one of the inventors of the family separation policy in his first semester. He then threatened to deploy the National Guard to help deport him. There, the former president used soldiers only to support logistics.
Trump cannot carry out his threat to deport 15 million people. Shipment of such a huge number is extremely expensive, shocking the labour market and increasing the prices of goods and services offered by illegal immigrants. Research suggests that the deportation under Obama slowed down the construction of the house by abandoning so many plasterers and brick machines. And mass expulsions would not be popular as more than half of all irregular immigrants have been in America for over a decade. They have jobs and families, and live in a blue state where they often don’t cooperate.
Instead, Trump may be looking for more practical policies. The temptation is to throw away the problem in Mexico. When deporting people, the major obstacle is finding government. Therefore, Trump simply turns back those who have arrived across the southern border and threatens Mexico with tariffs unless it lets them in. Yet destabilizing poor Southern neighbors is not a long-term interest in America. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum recognizes that supporting the US in immigration enforcement is a high card in negotiations with the Trump administration and shows his willingness to support it. He should meet her on the way.
Another temptation is to focus on theatrical cruelty as an alternative to actual actions. Expect workplace raids led by camera crews, strict detention in border states, and surges of ice agents in sanctuary cities. Like the Conservatives’ plan to outsource the UK’s asylum system to Rwanda, the point is to stop them from becoming immigrants. It also involves convincing voters that the government is serious.
The cruelty for itself is wrong. By denying immigrant humanity, we roughen America’s values. It may also prove to be unpopular. In the first Trump terminology, Americans responded to splitting their families and chasing their children. Support for immigration has risen. As soon as Biden took office, support for immigration fell. That dynamic creates a room for Trump to achieve something tougher and more lasting.
The first step is to strengthen the boundaries. Trump is lucky. Because irregular intersections have already fallen sharply since the 2022 peak after the Biden administration has helped to keep the flow down by doing business with Mexico and other Latin American countries. Trump can build on this by pushing immigration officers into the border to quickly rule whether the claim is valid or not. He was also able to require asylum seekers to remain in Mexico until their case was decided, as he did in his first term. The second step is to concentrate deportation on criminals, as his chief of staff suggests he will.
It could generate a third step agreement that has long been obvious but politically unachievable. As a practical matter and as a movement for justice, America cannot deport all illegal immigrants. Doing nothing means that around 11 million people will spend their lives in America without gaining the right to live there. However, unless the flow of immigration is controlled, pardons for those already in the United States risk attracting another wave of attempts to enter illegally. The only solution is a transaction that combines effective border enforcement with the right to stay for law-abiding immigrants.
The trade of the century
Such a compromise is possible. Republican politicians can’t block Trump with immigration, and democratic vigilance helps him look harsh. The possibility is that he wants to keep immigrants as a wedge issue, choose to fight against the Democratic governor and mayor, leaving things wide as he found. But the conditions for him to make a deal that has escaped the past five presidents are there if he wants.
Subscribers only: To see how to design your weekly cover, sign up for our weekly cover story newsletter.
