Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd explains why the results of the 2022 midterm elections have been a mirage for Democrats. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker has more from her interview with Donald Trump. And political reporter Adam Edelman looks at how Democratic governors in blue states are already starting to push back against the incoming Republican administration.
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The mirage of the Democratic Party’s midterms
Written by Chuck Todd
The biggest difference between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s success in winning re-election and the failure of the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris team to win for another four years was their mid-term experience. .
Both Clinton and Obama were devastated and forced to rethink some of their policies and how they were marketed.
Biden and the party as a whole have blamed the “better-than-expected” performance in the 2022 midterm elections, in which Democrats lost the House but gained seats in the Senate, as a sign that Democrats are on something and don’t need to. I took it as a sign. It’s about course correcting what the polls actually told us to do.
The fact that the Democratic Party performed well in the 2022 midterm elections despite Biden is not because of Biden or his pro-democracy message.
In reality, there are two reasons why Democrats performed better than expected in the 2022 midterm elections. One is the backlash against the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, and the other is the dire situation in which Republicans fielded candidates in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
This was a recipe for Democratic overperformance, given that more Democrats are regular voters and more Republicans are undocumented voters, thanks to the parties’ realignment around education and class. .
When the Republican Party was the party of the suburban upper-middle class, it had an almost automatic advantage in turnout in midterm elections. Not so anymore. That’s why Democrats do better than usual in special elections, and voters in “all elections” are more committed now. Presidential elections even out these midterm turnout benefits.
If Mr. Dobbs had not been elected, or if Republicans had nominated more electable candidates, Republicans most likely would have won a majority in both chambers in 2022. The reason for this is simply the backlash against inflation post-COVID-19 and the belief that Biden’s policies have exacerbated the problem, leading to negative feelings about the overall job Biden was doing. Ta.
And if the bombardment on Biden and the Democratic Party in 2022 is anything close to 2010 (President Obama’s first midterm election) or 1994 (Clinton’s first midterm election), perhaps Biden should run again or not. (and perhaps invite a primary challenger). Or forced Biden to change course faster and more forcefully on the economy and border security.
But that didn’t happen. In fact, some Democrats believe that Mr. Trump’s resurgence as the top Republican candidate in 2024, which began in earnest at the end of 2022, will be prolonged due to anti-Trumpism combined with Mr. Dobbs’ backlash, and that it will be the easiest policy. It has only further strengthened the (false) belief in The safest path to reelection.
Obviously, in hindsight, this was a huge miscalculation.
Read more about Chuck →
Here’s what else President Trump said to me during the interview
Written by Kristen Welker
My 15-minute phone interview with President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday was headlined by his remarks that there is “no price tag” on mass deportation plans and that his winning mission is to “restore common sense.” was included.
But there are many other things he told me.
President Trump touted the magnitude of his victory and his performance in key demographic groups. . woman. I often heard that women ultimately wanted safety. They wanted safety. ”
Since 2020, Trump has gained support among Latino voters, young adults, women and Asian American voters, but his support among Black voters has remained about the same, according to national exit polls.
He said of his role in helping some (but not all) Republicans vote down the bill: And I know some of the House seats we weren’t expected to win. But what it really tells me is that this is an obligation to the entire country, for women, men, African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans. So it did really well among Hispanic Americans. It’s a great honor. I’m really honored. ”
Mr. Trump supported many Republican candidates in important Senate and House races. Republicans regained the majority in the Senate, flipping three seats previously held by Democrats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. However, Democrats managed to hold onto two Senate seats held by President Trump, Michigan and Wisconsin. NBC News has not yet predicted the winners of the Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Republicans hold a 212-201 lead in the House, with 22 races yet to be called as of Friday afternoon.
President Trump made a distinction between cracking down on “murderers” and “drug traffickers” and legal immigration, saying, “It’s clear we have to make our borders strong and strong, and we have to… At the same time, I want people to come into our country…I’m not the kind of person who says, “No, you can’t come in.” We want people to come. Many companies will enter our country. …But what we want is people who aren’t necessarily in prison because they killed seven people. You know, some of it is something someone said very well. Once they entered the booth, it was determined that they agreed with Trump. They don’t want murderers or drug lords. We don’t need gang members. ”
He then spoke about the concession calls he received from Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden. My vice president called me and told me about the transition. She wants it to go as smoothly as possible. And of course I agree 100% with that. It was a very, very friendly call. And likewise for the president. He and I agreed to have a quick lunch before or after our trip (to South America). ”
Resistance 2.0: Democratic governors vow to protect states from Trump and his policies
Written by Adam Edelman
Blue state governor leaders are already preparing a series of political and legal actions to protect their policies and residents from federal action under the new administration of President Donald Trump.
The plan by Democratic governors across the country, including several 2028 presidential candidates, echoes how liberal state leaders pushed back against Mr. Trump during his first term and seeks to push back against Mr. Trump in the presidential election. Provide both a snapshot of what it looked like. The left side will now look like this.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday that he will convene a special legislative session specifically designed to “defend California’s values and fundamental rights in the face of the incoming Trump administration.”
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker has called the state a nation-state for people who have been denied “rights elsewhere,” including people seeking political asylum, reproductive health care, or avoiding persecution based on sexual orientation or gender. “A refuge for people who are in need.”
“I want to remind those who seek to take away the freedom, opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans that a happy warrior is still a warrior,” he said Thursday. “You have come for my people, you have come through me.”
And New York Gov. Cathy Hochul announced this week an initiative called the Empire State Freedom Initiative, aimed at addressing potential “policy and regulatory” threats during the Trump administration. said.
Read more →
🗞️ Today’s Top News
📝 Closing: The judge overseeing President Trump’s federal election interference case asks for Special Counsel Jack Smith to pause proceedings and give him one month to formally request how to proceed. acknowledged. This is likely the first step toward ending the prosecution. Continue reading → ⚫ Plot thwarted: The Justice Department indicts an Iranian man and two others in a murder-for-hire conspiracy targeting then-candidate Trump and others. Continue reading → ➡️ Election Day Threats: Bomb threats were sent to polling and vote-counting locations in at least five battleground states across the country on Tuesday, primarily targeting Democratic counties, NBC News analysis finds did. Continue reading → ⚖️ Pack the courts: Republicans prepare to reshape the judiciary under President Trump and a new Senate majority, including adding conservative Supreme Court justices There is also the possibility of appointing several more people. Continue reading → 😨 Second-term concerns: Former intelligence officials say U.S. spy agencies could be forced to skew their findings to suit President Trump’s policies or, in a worst-case scenario, be used to spy on domestic political opponents. He says he is concerned that he might be taken advantage of. Continue reading → 🤝 You’re Hired: President Trump nominates co-campaign chair Susie Wiles as White House Chief of Staff, making her the first woman to hold the position. Continue reading → 🗄️ Outsiders: When forming a new cabinet, President Trump is expected to place emphasis on people from outside the government, rather than current members of Congress. Continue reading → 🔴 Blue to Red: Trump wins Nevada, a project of NBC News — First time a Republican presidential candidate has won since 2004 Continue reading → 🔵 Red to Blue: Barring Harris’ loss , North Carolina Democrats won nearly every race across the state, with voting taking place on Tuesday. Read more → Follow post-election live updates →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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