The race for Virginia governor has become one of the most closely watched political contests in the nation this year, with historic odds and big names poised to square off. In 2025, only the Commonwealth and New Jersey will hold gubernatorial elections, with both races Rated as a toss-up By Cook’s Political Report.
Elections in Virginia and New Jersey could shift the balance of power, as narrow Republican gubernatorial majorities are in play nationwide. In particular, Virginia has two well-known candidates: Lt. Col. Winsome Earle Sears, a Republican, and former U.S. Secretary of State Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat. Both are experienced officials, and their candidates could make history as the state’s first female governor.
Jessica Taylor, Cook’s political reporting analyst, highlighted historical and political dynamics. She said Virginia often elects governors from the opposite party of the sitting president, a trend that could support Spanberger after Republican Donald Trump’s reelection last year.
“It would certainly be a board for Spanberger,” Taylor said. See Republican President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. she added, referring to Virginia’s incumbent government, Glenn Youngkin, also a Republican.
Taylor also said that while former Vice President Kamala Harris won Virginia’s electoral college votes, Trump’s performance in the state was an improvement compared to previous campaigns.
She highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s second term on Virginia’s gubernatorial race, especially in the Democratic-leaning state. Home to many federal workers, the region could be affected by potential federal job cuts under the Trump administration that could affect voter votes and preferences.
Virginia’s political landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. The 2017 “blue wave” ushered in a surge of Democrats into the state Legislature, resulting in a Democratic triumvirate by the 2019 election under Gov. Ralph Northam. The momentum continued into the 2018 legislative midterms. There, Democrats across the country, including in Virginia, achieved significant gains primarily in response to Trump.
However, the political tide has changed in 2021. President Joe Biden’s election in 2020 coincided with the rise of a “parents’ rights” movement centered in Northern Virginia, propelling Republicans Youngkin and Earl Sears to statewide victory. Their victory briefly flipped the House to the GOP and signaled a new phase in Virginia politics.
r sears, It has been a remarkable political journey that has allowed her to make history as Virginia’s first female governor, second Black governor and its first immigrant-born governor. In 2002, she flipped out Democratic Delegation District to serve one term before failing In 2004, he challenged Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport-News. Although unsuccessful, she later sought nomination to the Virginia Senate in 2018.
She took a break from politics for several years to focus on her family. R Sears recorded these personal and professional experiences in 2023 memoir It details her childhood, military service, and political career.
Spanberger, a Democrat and former Central Intelligence Agency executive, made his political debut in 2018 by flipping the Republican-held Capitol. Over three terms in Congress, she established a reputation as one of its most bipartisan members.
Taylor of Cook’s Political Report believes Spanberger is seasoned, citing her consistent ability to defend a highly competitive district. Since announcing her gubernatorial bid last year and choosing not to seek re-election in Congress, she has focused on building her ground game, traveling Virginia and connecting with voters.
Spanberger will likely face a major challenge from Scott running back. Scott, D-Portsmouth, who is backed by prominent Democrats like Scott, D-Portsmouth, is deeply entrenched among black voters in coastal Virginia. As the ranking member of the Home Education Workforce Committee and as a member of the state’s first Legislature since Reconstruction, he will have a major impact on the race.
Another potential wild card is former 5th District Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman, who has hinted at running as an independent. Riggleman served one term in Congress before losing his seat to Republican Bob Good after officiating a same-sex marriage. Since leaving Congress, he has held high-profile roles, including serving as an advisor to the committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Candidates looking to compete in the June primary have until April 3 to submit their paperwork.
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