A health care worker seals a coronavirus swab after completing a test at the ProHealth Urgent Care coronavirus testing site in Wantagh, New York, on April 30, 2020. Al Bello/Getty Images North America Hide caption
Toggle caption Al Bello/Getty Images North America
If it seems like a lot of people have COVID-19 right now, you’re not imagining it.
We are now in the midst of the summer wave of COVID-19 around the world.
Nearly every state has found high or very high concentrations of the COVID-19 virus in its wastewater, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least 10 other states have also found high concentrations of the COVID virus in their wastewater.
“We’re relying on wastewater data right now because we’re not testing. We don’t have any other reliable way to measure it,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House COVID-19 response coordinator, said in an interview on NPR’s Morning Edition. Based on the wastewater data, Dr. Jha said, “this is shaping up to be possibly the biggest summer wave we’ve ever seen.”
Reasons for this summer’s surge
Jha said it feels like we’re settling into a more familiar pattern with COVID. Recently, the CDC classified COVID as endemic, meaning it will continue to be around in a predictable way.
There are two waves of the virus per year, one in the summer and one in the winter. The summer wave is slightly smaller and the winter wave is larger. However, unlike influenza, which has a winter wave and then very few cases, COVID infections can increase between waves.
“This does not appear to be a seasonal virus, so it will likely be circulating year-round,” Dr. Otto Yang, professor of medicine and vice chief of the division of infectious diseases at the University of California, Los Angeles, told The Morning Edition in an interview.
Jha said this summer’s outbreak is still smaller than the winter outbreak, but it’s still significant for a summer outbreak. It started a little earlier than last summer, and cases are still rising. Jha said he hopes the outbreak will peak and subside soon, but he’s not sure exactly when that will be.
New dominant variants drive epidemics
COVID continues to evolve rapidly, with new COVID variants emerging every three to four months. This summer, the predominant strain of COVID was KP.3.1.1, accounting for 27.8% of cases in the U.S., while KP.3 accounted for 20.1%, according to data from the CDC and the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Jha said these variants evolved from Omicron.
“These variants don’t appear to be more deadly, but they are almost certainly more contagious,” Yang said. “So if you have something that has the same lethality but is more contagious, you’re going to see more severe illness and deaths.”
The role of the new vaccine due for release in September
A new vaccine targeting these new dominant variants is currently being developed and is expected to be launched in September.
“It should have better compatibility with the mutant strains and better efficacy of the antibodies, so we hope it can reduce the number of symptomatic COVID-19 cases and curb the spread of the infection,” Yang said. Yang hopes that the new vaccine, like the current vaccines, will be effective in preventing severe illness and death.
Jha reiterated that the new vaccines are highly effective against the current variants. He said the currently available vaccines target variants that were dominant last year and that have already disappeared. COVID vaccines “are not expected to provide significant protection against infection, but they will provide some protection against severe disease,” Jha said.
If you haven’t been vaccinated this year, Jha recommends waiting until the new vaccine is released in the coming weeks to get the most protection.
He acknowledges that asking people to drastically change their lives after four and a half years of the virus’ spread is tough. For most people, he says, vaccination will be enough. And for those at high risk and who do get it, he adds, treatments like Paxlovid are a great option.
So how often should you get a COVID booster shot?
Jha said the annual shot is recommended for most people, but there’s evidence that for those most at risk — those in their late 70s and 80s and those with compromised immune systems — getting a second shot in the spring offers a significant level of protection, and most Americans should focus on getting the annual shot.
“What I encourage people to do is get your flu shot when you want it, which is usually in late September or October,” Jha said.
But Yang thinks it’s a good idea for people who haven’t gotten a COVID vaccine in six months to get a booster shot.
Jha said while this may be the worst summer COVID-19 surge yet, there is some good news.
“If you look at COVID deaths so far in 2024, they’re down quite a bit compared to 2023. Yes, we’re seeing a spike in cases, but we’re not seeing the hospitalizations or deaths that we’ve seen in years past,” Jha said. “That’s progress. That’s good news. It means that we’re building immunity over time, so each infection doesn’t mean as much as it did four years ago, or even two years ago.”
This article was edited by Obed Manuel.
