The first round of the College Football Playoff was a dud. Whether you think they put the wrong team in or it’s because of the format of the tournament and how they were seeded, there’s no arguing that the first four games all stunk.
The most dramatic moment of the four games was when Clemson trailed by one point for 55 seconds in the fourth quarter of their loss to Texas, but you know it was a tough game.
Although it was disappointing, let’s look at the bright side. The chances for the quarterfinals couldn’t be worse. Based on the point spread, it looks like we’re in for a very “feast or famine” round. There are two games with a spread of 3 points or less, and two games with a double-digit spread. And thankfully, while we can’t guarantee excitement across the board, you can still have fun betting on each game.
Will Boise State be an underdog in the Fiesta Bowl? What could go wrong? In all seriousness, Boise was a giant killer in the Fiesta Bowl, going 7-0 in games, even though they had a 3-0 record in games. There is some irony in the fact that they will be playing a Penn State team. No program has won this game more than Penn State. I’m pretty confident the Nittany Lions will improve to 8-0 after this game.
Ashton Giunty is one of the best players in the country and is not a byproduct of Boise State’s schedule. But in this game, he will face Penn State’s defense. The defense is one of the best in the nation against the run and one of the few that can slow him down and force Boise State to move the ball in a different way. Are you confident that the Nittany Lions can stuff eight men into the box and let Maddux Madsen and the Broncos receivers beat them? Not really. On the other side of the ball, I don’t have much confidence that Boise State’s defense can get as many stops as they need to win this game. Contender: Penn State -10.5 (-115)
Many smart people have pointed to this as the game most likely to be a blowout loss, and considering the spread is 2 touchdowns, that’s a logical position to take. But with extra time to prepare, I believe Arizona State can get creative on offense and find some success against an outstanding Texas defense. As much as the Sun Devils get a shutout, it’s easy to see them scoring nearly 30 points in this game.
But no matter how things play out on the other side of the ball, I have little faith in the Sun Devils defense to get any stops. They don’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and given how good the Texas offensive line is, as long as Quinn Ewers has to wait for his receivers to get open against an underpowered secondary. I think you’re going to see it sitting in your pocket. It wasn’t anything remarkable.
And while Texas’ offense has struggled in the red zone over the second half of the season, Arizona State’s red zone defense has been bad. The Devils rank 101st nationally in points allowed per red zone possession. The Longhorns were able to run all over Clemson last week and should be able to run all over Arizona this week. Selected: Texas Team Total 32.5+ (-114)
I don’t think this game is that different from the first one. He scored 63 points in that game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he scores even more this time. Oregon State has been the most consistent team in the nation this year and deserves its record and No. 1 ranking, but its defense has struggled at times. The Ducks played three games against the teams remaining on the field (Boise State, Ohio State, and Penn State) and allowed at least 31 points in all three of those games. I expect Ohio State to do the same in the rematch, especially now that it will be held at a neutral site rather than Autzen Stadium.
At the same time, I don’t think the Ducks’ offense will be much different, as Oregon’s offensive line was great in the first matchup and will be able to slow down Ohio State’s pass rush, which struggles against a better offensive line. In fact, QB Dillon Gabriel got more and more comfortable as the season progressed, and this unit improved towards the second half. This game is shaping up to be a regular-season game in every way, and the scoring could be even higher. Pick: 55 or above (-110)
Contrary to popular belief, I’m not stupid. I know this Georgia team can beat Notre Dame even without Carson Beck. I know that when this defense is at its best, it can overwhelm any offense. But I also understand that Notre Dame is very good. I’ll never understand how this Irish team lost at home to Northern Illinois, but that loss feels like a long time ago and this team is capable of advancing.
And I was surprised that the Irish were the underdogs. Again, I know Georgia could be great, but these odds put more faith in Gunner Stockton than I’d like without proof of concept. It feels like I’m giving too much credit to the fact that Georgia beat Texas in the SEC Championship Game, and the stock that Texas’ Jahday Barron should have returned with a touchdown if he knew how to follow his blockers. I think there’s also a convenient amnesia about Tong’s turnovers. I expect it to be a low-scoring game where mistakes are costly, and I trust Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard more than Stockton to not make mistakes. Pick: Notre Dame +2 (-110)
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