We’re getting closer and closer to the first official College Football Playoff rankings.
This season’s playoffs have expanded to 12 teams, and we’re laying out the projected playoff field each week ahead of the first rankings announcement on November 5th.
Without CFP rankings as a guide, we will rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as a barometer for predicting this field. The CFP rankings and AP polls typically have more similarities than differences at season’s end. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like at the midway point of the 2024 season.
1st round bye
1. Texas (6-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns defeated rival Oklahoma University 34-3 in Dallas to maintain their No. 1 ranking. After Oklahoma took a 3-0 lead in the first quarter, Texas scored the final 34 points of the game. Things will be a little tougher for the Longhorns in Week 8 as Georgia State visits Austin in what could be a prelude to the SEC Championship Game. Texas will need Quinn Ewers to get off to a better start in this game. He was a little rusty to start against the Sooners.
2. Oregon State (6-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ducks defeated Ohio State 32-31 to advance to the top four for the first time this season. Oregon performed well on defense thanks to a creative penalty in the final minute, and QB Dillon Gabriel showed why he became a summer Heisman favorite after committing to Oregon. Gabriel pitched and scored two points and ran for another.
3. Miami (6-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes have an off day in Week 7 and have a tricky road contest in Week 8. Miami heads to Louisville for a noon ET kickoff. The Cardinals have a very good record at home against strong opponents under coach Jeff Brohm. Expect Brohm’s offense to pull some tricks at some point in this game.
4. Iowa State (6-0, projected Big 12 champion)
Things didn’t change dramatically for Iowa State in Week 7 in Morgantown. The Cyclones led 14-10 at halftime and scored the first 14 points of the fourth quarter to take a three-possession lead at 28-16 with 4:42 left. victory. Carson Hansen rushed for three touchdowns and Rocco Becht continues to be a quietly capable passer.
1st round match
12th Boise State (5-1, expected to win MWC) vs. 5th Penn State (6-0, general)
This is going to be a very fun running game battle. Boise State’s Ashton Giunty is averaging 9.9 yards per carry and is a midseason favorite for the Heisman. PSU’s creative running game has seen Nicholas Singleton and Caitron Allen each rush for over 400 yards this season, averaging over five yards per carry. Penn State tight end Tyler Warren had 17 catches for 224 yards in the Nittany Lions’ overtime win over USC. Harrison Wallace III is the team’s second-best receiver. He recorded 17 catches throughout the season.
No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (5-1, at-large)
This game is a departure from the current AP rankings as an example of what the committee ultimately does at the end of the season. Tennessee is scheduled to play Georgia later this season and will face Alabama in Week 8, but the Bulldogs have already lost to the Crimson Tide. The Vols are ranked higher than LSU in the AP Top 25, but that means a rematch with Georgia in this playoff projection. A road trip to Columbus is also not far from Athens.
No. 10 LSU (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 7 Georgia (5-1, at-large)
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeyer is now the sixth-leading passer in the country after the Tigers’ overtime win over Ole Miss. After Ole Miss kicked a field goal, Nussmeier threw the game-winning TD pass to Kylen Lacy, who threw for 1,989 and 18 yards. This season is also TDS. He also only had two sacks. Georgia’s Carson Beck has been the focal point of the Bulldogs’ offense this season, but he hasn’t been as efficient as he will be in 2023. Beck has completed fewer passes, averaging 0.8 fewer yards per throw and one interception. He is very close to tying the total for last season.
No. 9 Clemson (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 8 Alabama (5-1, at-large)
It would seem only right that the Clemson-Alabama rivalry be reignited in the first round of the expansion playoffs. The Tigers have scored at least 40 points in four of their last five games as the offense is clearly back on track after an ugly performance against Georgia in Week 1. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe continues to be the catalyst for the Crimson Tide’s offense and will need to make sure he doesn’t turn the ball over against Tennessee. Milroe had an interception and a fumble in the loss to Vanderbilt and had two interceptions in Saturday’s narrow win over South Carolina State.
