CNN
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Neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump have a clear advantage in the race for the White House in two key Southern battleground states, according to CNN’s latest poll conducted by SSRS.
Voters in Georgia are probably split 48% for Trump and 47% for Harris, while in North Carolina it’s 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump. Results in both states were within the margin of error, suggesting there is no clear leader in either contest.
Both states are fiercely contested in this year’s presidential election. North Carolina narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008, but has voted Republican in the past three presidential elections. However, in 2020, it was the state where Trump won by the narrowest of margins. Joe Biden defeated Trump in Georgia four years ago by less than 1 percentage point, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
The results suggest little movement since CNN polls conducted in Georgia in late August and North Carolina in late September, both of which showed a clear indication of the race. There was no leader. Currently, an overwhelming 95% of prospective voters in each state say they have decided to vote, and although the number of voters likely to move is decreasing, it is still difficult to decide which way to swing the election. It’s large enough. More than half of likely voters in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they have already voted, with a 7-point difference in these voters and a 6-point difference in the state. The lead is narrowly tied to Harris. North Carolina.
Roughly two-thirds of Harris supporters in both states (69% in Georgia and 67% in North Carolina) said they were primarily voting to support Harris rather than oppose President Trump. are. This percentage is higher than the latest CNN poll in five other battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), where the average share hovers near 60%. Much of the difference is due to Harris’ black supporters in Georgia and North Carolina, where about 8 in 10 said their vote was primarily in support of the vice president. That’s despite the fact that black registered voters in both states are less likely than white registered voters to describe themselves as “very motivated” to vote.
Majorities of Trump supporters in both states (81% in Georgia and 75% in North Carolina) say they are voting primarily to support the former president, not to oppose Harris. . This is similar to the percentage of Trump supporters making similar statements in other battleground states.
In contrast to the close race for the White House, Democrat Josh Stein holds a clear advantage in the North Carolina gubernatorial race against Republican Mark Robinson, who has been plagued by scandals among potential voters. They lead him 53% to 37%. This is due to a significant split in favor of the Democratic opposition, with 77% of Trump voters in the state saying they would support Mr. Robinson in the gubernatorial race, 10% supporting Mr. Stein, and an additional 12% supporting Mr. Stein. I answered that I would not vote. Either of the strong candidates. Nearly all Harris supporters in the state (96%) say they support Stein.
Polls show that Georgia and North Carolina have similar overall political environments, but there are some key differences.
Biden received similarly low ratings for his job performance in each state, with 39% of likely voters in North Carolina and 37% in Georgia saying they approved of him. However, the White House’s response to Hurricane Helen in the Tar Heel State has been markedly poor. Forty-two percent of Georgia’s likely voters say they approve of the Biden administration’s response to Hurricane Helen, compared to just 36% of North Carolina voters in both states. How do they view the response to the storm?Significant percentages of respondents are unsure (17% in North Carolina and 14% in Georgia). Although views on the administration’s response to the storm generally parallel partisan lines, 11% of Harris voters in North Carolina still say they disapprove of the way the Biden administration handled Helen. In Georgia, only 5% of Harris supporters disapprove.
In both states, voters who are more likely to be black (84% vs. 13% in Georgia, 78% vs. 19% in North Carolina) and college-educated voters (55% vs. 39% in Georgia, 53% vs. North Carolina) Harris leads the pack (42%). ). White college graduates were almost evenly split in both states (50% Harris to 47% Trump in North Carolina; 48% Trump to 46% Harris in Georgia). Among white voters in Georgia without a college degree, Trump holds a commanding lead, 81% to 15%. In North Carolina, he leads this group by a less overwhelming margin (65% to 31%).
In North Carolina, Trump leads by 7 points among men and Harris by 9 points among women. In Georgia, men support Trump equally, but women are nearly evenly split (49% support Harris, 47% support Trump). The difference is narrow among Georgia women because of the large gap between white women (Trump 66% vs. Harris 30%) and women of color (Harris 79% vs. Trump 15%) It is. In both states, Ms. Harris has a wide lead among voters who say they live in a city or urban area, and Mr. Trump has a similarly large lead in rural areas. But suburban voters in Georgia are divided, 48% for Harris to 47% for Trump, and suburban voters in North Carolina are split, 53% for Harris to 42%.
Voters in these two states are the most likely among swing states to say their choices are driven by a candidate’s positions on this issue, rather than their leadership qualities or approach to the presidency. It is one of the states. Fifty-eight percent of Georgians and 56% of North Carolinians say it’s a problem. more important to their choices.
Voters in both states likely focused on immigration (15 points difference in Georgia, 12 points difference in North Carolina), foreign policy (9 points difference in both states), and the economy (8 points difference in both states). Harris leads in confidence in abortion and reproductive rights (by 15 points in North Carolina and by 13 points in Georgia), with voters in both states trusting one candidate more to protect democracy. It is broadly divided by
Georgia voters, by an 8-point margin, say they see Harris over Trump as the candidate who cares more about people like them, while North Carolina voters are even more divided. There is. In both states, Ms. Harris is seen as the more honest and trustworthy candidate, while Mr. Trump has a slight advantage as better able to bring about needed change.
About 8 in 10 likely voters in each state say they have at least some confidence that their state’s votes will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election. That rose to about 9 in 10 Harris supporters in both states, 74% of Trump supporters in North Carolina said the same, and only two-thirds of Republicans in Georgia said the same.
Interviews were conducted online and by phone from October 23 to 28, 2024, with registered voters, including 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina. Likely voters include all voters registered to vote, weighted based on their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. The results for likely Georgia voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. That’s 4.5 points among likely voters in North Carolina.
