Taipei, Taiwan – Failure to meet China’s major carbon emissions targets raised concerns about its ability to achieve carbon neutrality. This is a potentially critical factor in global efforts to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
According to the National Statistics Bureau, China’s carbon intensity fell by 3.4%, losing Beijing’s official target of 3.9%, down by 3.9%, with a measured gross domestic product (GDP).
China is also behind its long-term goal of reducing carbon strength by 18% between 2020 and 2025, as set by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in its latest five-year plan.
Under China’s “double targets,” President Xi Jinping has pledged to reach peak emissions and carbon neutrality by the end of the decade by 2060.
China’s progress is closely monitored for its paradoxical status as the world’s top polluter (about 30% of global emissions) and its paradoxical status as a world leader in renewable energy investment.
Success or failure to meet the national emissions targets will have a significant impact on the efforts of the international community to prevent the average temperature from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
It is already doubtful that the planet could fall below the long-term 1.5°C threshold.
Carbon strength is just one of the benchmarks used by Beijing, but it provides important insight into how decarbonisation is unfolding across the economy, said Muiyan, a senior energy analyst at the UK-based global energy think tank.
“The economy continued to grow, but the reduction in emissions to that growth was not as fast as intended,” Mui told Al Jazeera.
The world’s second largest economy relied heavily on industry growth to strip its power from the economic recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has led to a recent surge in energy demand, Muyi said.
According to government data, China’s economy officially rose 5% in 2024, while electricity demand rose 6.8% year-on-year.
Carbon emissions increased by 0.8% year-on-year.
The record-breaking heatwave has posed further challenges to emission reduction efforts by disrupting energy production at hydroelectric dams and forcing authorities to compensate for shortfalls with coal power.
Despite the set-off, Beijing has achieved remarkable renewable energy outcomes, according to Eric Fishman, senior manager of Lantau Group, a Hong Kong energy consulting firm.
Last year, China met 14.5% of total energy demand and another 13.4% with hydropower, and another 13.4%, according to government data.
Based on an analysis of government data, the country also said it had met about 75% of the increase in energy demand with renewable energy (500 out of 610 terawatt hours).
The figure represents “a great deal of clean energy,” which is roughly equivalent to Germany’s annual energy consumption, Fishman told Al Jazeera.
Much of this growth is driven by government support from the highest level of CCP.
Xi Jinping is Xi’s governing ideology enshrined in the Chinese constitution, and says that China must strive for “ecological civilization.”
In 2021, XI announced that “high energy consumption and emissions projects that do not meet the requirements should be decisively withdrawn.”
In the same year, China launched its emissions trading scheme, the world’s largest carbon trading market. Under that, businesses with less emissions than the designated allowance can sell unused allowances to polluters that exceed the limit.
More recently, XI has called on China to focus on “new quality productivity” and move towards higher-end, innovation-driven manufacturing, said Anika Patel, Chinese analyst at Carbon Brief.
“(China) has historically been considered a “factory of the world”, but it focuses on what is called “old three.” All of this is less valuable products: appliances, clothing, toys. Now I want to shift to green growth and a “new three.”
The CCP said the release of its latest round of carbon emissions targets for 2026-2030 along with plans for the next five years later this year will impact both the public and private sector directions.
Yao Zhe, global policy advisor to Greenpeace East Asia, said it is not so certain that while China is on track to reach peak carbon before 2030, it will be possible to put coal completely behind it in the long run.
“To achieve carbon neutrality, more structural changes in China’s energy sector and the economy as a whole are needed, and these changes need to begin immediately after the peak,” Yao told Al Jazeera.
“Chinese policymakers are good at supporting the CleanTech industry, but there is a tendency to postpone these structural reforms to a later time frame after 2035, which is a real concern.”
