China pays attention to friendly relations between North Korea and Russia

Chinese tourists gather in a 12-story building in the crisp autumn breeze, vying for the best spot to take photos of the intersection of their country, Russia and North Korea.

A map on the wall shows three national flags overlapping each other, highlighting the special place Fangchuan in northeastern China holds.

“I am so proud to be standing here with Russia on my left and North Korea on my right,” declares one woman traveling with a colleague. “There are no borders between people.”

That may be too optimistic. Like some of the pinched Chinese territories she visited on her visit, Beijing is also caught between sanctioned neighbors.

Concerns about the budding alliance between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have peaked in recent weeks, with reports that North Korea is sending thousands of troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There was.

And that was before North Korea fired a banned intercontinental missile on Thursday, its longest flight ever, after weeks of ramping up rhetoric against Seoul.

“China wants a rational and highly controlled relationship with North Korea,” said Christopher Green, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “And relations between North Korea and Russia threaten to undermine that.”

Unless Chinese leader Xi Jinping is able to shape the Putin-Kim alliance to suit his interests, China could be left caught in the middle, amid growing anger and anxiety in the West.

Moscow and North Korea deny that North Korean soldiers are heading to Ukraine, and this is widely seen as a serious escalation. But following claims by South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies, the United States says it has seen the evidence.

The first reports emerged just before Mr. Xi met with his Russian counterpart at the BRICS summit in early October, casting a shadow over a rally aimed at sending a defiant message to the West.

It increasingly appears that China’s allies are spiraling out of control. The Chinese government, a senior partner in the triad, is trying to become a stable leader in a new world order that is not led by the United States. But that’s difficult to do when one ally starts a war in Europe and the other ally is accused of aiding the invasion.

“China is dissatisfied with the status quo, but they are trying to keep that dissatisfaction relatively quiet,” Green said.

Judging by the reaction to our presence in the border town, this is certainly a sensitive topic for Beijing. Tourists appear to be welcome, but journalists are not.

Even though we were in public places at all times, the team was stopped, questioned repeatedly, followed, and our footage was deleted.

The hotel requested that my passport be kept for “my safety and the safety of others”. Police visited our hotel room and also blocked the road to Hunchun’s port. That would have given us more insight into the current trade between Russia and China.

At the observatory in Bocheon, it is clear that most of the tourists come to see North Korea.

“I saw someone riding a bicycle,” says one of the girls looking through the telescope. Her friend came running up to her and said, It’s a very mysterious country. ”

Nearby is the Tumen River, which flows gently through all three countries. It is China’s gateway to the Sea of ​​Japan and has territorial disputes with Tokyo.

The 1,400-kilometre (870-mile) Chinese border is home to some of the few platforms with a clear view of North Korea. South Korea’s border with North Korea is a nearly impenetrable barrier, a heavily mined and fortified demilitarized zone.

Someone handed me binoculars. Some people are cycling around the village on old bicycles, but there is almost no sign of anyone else. One of the largest buildings is a school with a sign asking children to “study well for Joseon” (another name for North Korea).

“North Korea has always been our neighbor. It’s not new to us,” says the middle-aged man. “Seeing how they live makes me realize that China is a rich and strong country.”

Kim Jong Un’s regime will certainly have a hard time surviving without China, its biggest benefactor, accounting for more than 90% of its foreign trade, including food and fuel.

It wasn’t always like that. In the early 1960s, Chinese people fled famine by crossing the Tumen River. Some attended North Korean schools, believing that the education system at that time was better.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea’s economy collapsed. The Soviet Union was North Korea’s main source of aid and cheap oil, which caused severe food shortages and eventually starvation.

Soon, North Korean refugees began crossing sometimes freezing rivers, risking being shot, to escape hunger, poverty and oppression. There are currently more than 30,000 people living in South Korea, and an unknown number still living in China.

“Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea has had no choice but to maintain good relations with its only benefactor, China,” Green said.

But now Russia is “offering an alternative, and North Korea is trying to take advantage of it,” he added.

Mao Zedong, the first leader of the People’s Republic of China, likened the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang to the intimacy of “lips and teeth,” saying, “If the lips are lost, the teeth will become cold.”

Sociologist Aidan Foster-Carter, who has studied North Korea for decades, said the Chinese government now lacks appreciation because Kim’s lips are “kissed somewhere else.” He says he notices that he is getting smarter by doing so.

“North Korea has always been a hell of a comrade to Russia and China. They take as much money as they can and do whatever they want.”

Analysts note that Mr. Kim has consistently been more flattering to Mr. Putin than Mr. Xi over the last year. Kim has not met with Xi since 2019, but has met with Putin twice in the past year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the two sanctioned leaders closer than ever. President Putin wants more support for his war effort, and Kim hopes to strengthen his government with alliances and attention.

China’s borders clearly demonstrate the rapid development of relations between the two countries.

A train whistle interrupts the conversations of tourists as a steam locomotive pulls a long line of freight cars slowly rattling across the railway bridge from Russia to North Korea. They stopped in front of a sign in Korean facing China that read, “Towards a new victory!”

The United States estimates that Mr. Kim has sold more than 1 million artillery shells and Grad rockets to Moscow for use in Ukraine, which North Korea denies.

But there is no doubt that the two countries have stepped up their cooperation since signing a security agreement in June to help each other in the event of an “aggression.”

“You spoke very formal and formal words to Xi Jinping at an event of real historical significance, the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the People’s Republic of China,” Foster-Carter said.

“Yet, on Putin’s birthday, Kim calls him ‘closest comrade.’ If you are Xi Jinping, what are you thinking?”

It’s hard to know because China has shown no signs of interfering with the Russia-North Korea alliance.

The U.S. is aware of Beijing’s vacillation, and both rivals could pursue similar goals this time around.

Last week, State Department officials raised the issue of North Korean troops in Russia with Chinese diplomats.

The Chinese government has a choice. In the past, it has responded to U.S.-led sanctions to cut oil and coal supplies to North Korea and curb North Korea’s nuclear program.

Already, China is battling US accusations that it is selling parts to Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine. Beijing and Moscow trade are also thriving, even as Beijing tries to cope with Western tariffs.

Mr. Xi has brought Russia closer because he needs President Putin’s help to challenge the U.S.-led world order. However, he did not stop trying to repair relations with Europe, Britain, and even the United States. China is also holding talks with Japan and South Korea to ease historic tensions.

However, Kim’s increasingly aggressive statements against South Korea have led South Korea to once again debate whether it should have its own nuclear weapons. The presence of North Korean troops on the battlefield in Ukraine would only further confuse Beijing’s plans.

As for this possibility, it has already been confirmed that South Korean President Yun Seok-Yeol is discussing “specific countermeasures” as well as strengthening security cooperation with Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

A nuclear-armed South Korea or an “East Asian NATO” is not ideal in a region where China wants greater influence. An emboldened Kim could also signal stronger support from the United States, even in the form of warships and weapons, to allies South Korea and Tokyo.

“For a very long time, China has had a policy of three no’s in Northeast Asia, and one of them was the denuclearization of North Korea. Obviously that was a failure,” Green said.

Currently, Beijing is concerned that an alliance with Russia could destabilize North Korea, saying, “It could actually benefit Vladimir Putin in a way that doesn’t actually benefit Xi Jinping.” There is,” he added.

Experts say Beijing is as concerned as the West about what military technology Putin might sell to Kim in exchange for troops.

“It’s definitely a satellite,” Foster-Carter said. “But Putin is a bad person, and he’s not angry. Russia knows, just as China knows, that North Korea is a loose cannon. Providing more technology is not good for anyone.”

Experts believe that Xi is unlikely to take any drastic action because China needs stability in North Korea. If aid were cut off, there would likely be a refugee crisis at the border.

But Kim may also have to make a decision.

Foster-Carter said that while Russia pays for the shells and troops, “the reality is that it is China that has kept North Korea going all this time, often through gritted teeth. I doubt whether he will do so.”

Mr. Kim’s deadly gamble could also have serious repercussions closer to home for North Korea’s 25 million people, cut off from the outside world and completely dependent on the regime for survival.

Across the Tumen River in Bangcheon, a North Korean soldier is watching us, and we are watching him.

On the Chinese side, steam rises from snack stands selling noodles and piping hot octopus on sticks. And he can probably hear the laughter of tourists taking pictures with the latest cameras and cell phones they are prohibited from owning.

The shallow river is a bay that neither tourists nor soldiers can cross.