Week 10 is almost decided, and the big picture of the NFL playoffs is starting to come into focus.
On the AFC side, there are six teams that are almost guaranteed to advance to the postseason. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers would have to fall to stay home in January, even considering the rest of their schedules. Dew.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota Vikings are doing well, with the NFC West and wild card spots still up for grabs.
But with seven weeks left, the league is starting to crystallize as usual.
Let’s take a look at the latest developments in the playoffs for both conferences.
Additionally, all playoff odds are based on The Athletic’s model.
Record: 9-0, 1st place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff Probability: >99%
It’s rarely easy, but the Chiefs continue to do well. Dating back to last year, Kansas City has won 15 games in a row, and on Sunday they blocked a field goal in the last second to seal the victory. What’s next? Buffalo Bills.
Record: 8 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, AFC East region
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff Probability: >99%
Buffalo responded by intercepting Joe Flacco three times against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Bills are on track to win the AFC East title. With the Chiefs coming to town, they can close the gap on the AFC’s top seed.
Record: 7 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 87%
Pittsburgh found a way to defeat the Commanders in Washington, keeping the Steelers in first place in the AFC North. Russell Wilson completed only half of his 28 attempts, but threw three touchdowns.
Record: 6 wins, 4 losses, 1st place, AFC South Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 95%
The Texans took the ball away from Jared Goff in the fifth inning. Still, CJ Stroud’s two interceptions and inability to run the ball cost Houston Sunday night against the Lions.
Record: 7 wins, 3 losses, 2nd place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
By defeating the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, Baltimore swept its division rival for the season, effectively turning the AFC North into a two-horse race with the Ravens and Steelers.
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 2nd place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 91%
Los Angeles easily took on the Tennessee Titans and took care of business. The Bengals come to town next, but the Chargers have a chance to put themselves in a surprising position with a win over Cincinnati.
Record: 5 wins, 5 losses, 3rd place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 27%
It would be tougher to lose than the Broncos lost to the Chiefs. Denver played near-perfect football, but lost when a 35-yard field goal was blocked as time expired.
in the hunt
Indianapolis Colts (4-6): Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson…it doesn’t matter. The Colts can’t stop the ball from turning over, and their defense can’t stop anyone from scoring. Having the Jets and Lions on deck is a bad trend.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): Cincinnati suffered two heartbreaking losses to the Ravens. Now, the Bengals will have to rebuild their team Sunday night against the Chargers at SoFi Stadium.
New England Patriots (3-7): The Patriots defeated the Bears in Chicago with nine sacks. New England isn’t a playoff threat, but they’re playing hard despite a lackluster record.
Record: 8-1, 1st place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
The Lions faced the Texans on Sunday night, and despite Jared Goff throwing five interceptions, Detroit won 26-23 on a last-second field goal to remain atop the NFC standings. did.
Record: 7 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 97%
Philadelphia has been under scrutiny all year, with coach Nick Sirianni’s decisions causing quite a bit of ire, but the Eagles are on a roll. On Thursday night, they’ll take on the Commanders on the deck in Landover with a chance to advance by 1.5 games in the NFC East.
Record: 6 wins, 4 losses, 1st place, NFC South
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 93%
Sunday was a crushing loss for the Falcons, ending the New Orleans Saints’ losing streak at seven. Atlanta gained over 400 yards but lost due to special teams miscues and chunk plays.
Record: 6 wins, 4 losses, 1st place, NFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 53%
The Cardinals won four straight and remained the catbirds of the NFC West. Arizona hasn’t allowed a touchdown in three of those games, showing off a defense no one thought possible at the start of the year.
Record: 7 wins, 2 losses, 2nd place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 89%
No one remembers the University of Minnesota’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars fondly, but the Vikings held Mac Jones to two interceptions and held them to seven points. Minnesota remains firmly in contention for the NFC North title.
Record: 7 wins, 3 losses, 2nd place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 89%
Despite holding a double-digit lead in the second half, Washington was unable to close out the Steelers. A huge game begins Thursday night as the Eagles travel to the nation’s capital to take the lead in the NFC East.
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 3rd place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 66%
The Packers are in their bye week after losing to the Lions last weekend. In Week 11, Green Bay visits the Chicago Bears in a pivotal NFC North game.
in the hunt
San Francisco 49ers (5-4): With the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 49ers are within one game of a wild-card spot and just 0.5 games behind the division-leading Cardinals.
Los Angeles Rams (4-4): The Rams play at home against the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. If they win, they will have a record of 5 wins and 4 losses, and will have a batting average over .500 for the first time this season.
Chicago Bears (4-5): Chicago is fading fast. The Bears, who lost on a Hail Mary pass to Washington, suffered blowout losses to the Cardinals and Patriots.
