In recent years, the US Electoral College system has come under increasing criticism for giving a very small number of Americans the power to decide the outcome of presidential elections.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona by about 43,000 votes (just 0.03% of the national vote). In 2016, Donald Trump won these key battleground states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes.
How does this happen? How can such a small margin be so decisive in an election with 154.6 million votes cast? Here’s how it works.
Challenges for 2024
To win the election, a presidential candidate must receive at least 270 electoral votes, or more than half of the total number of electoral votes. States that are won by very close margins — so-called “battleground states” — receive special attention from pollsters, campaigners, and commentators, because even a narrow victory can give a party a victory and swing the election outcome.
There are six battleground states in the 2024 election: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). The Harris campaign also sees North Carolina, which is typically a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, and its 16 electoral votes as competitive. Whichever candidate wins the election will have to win some of these states.
The concept of a battleground state can also change over time as demographics and political trends change. For example, Ohio and Florida were considered battleground states until recently but are now considered heavily Republican. Michigan was considered a relatively Democratic stronghold until Trump’s victory in 2016.
Over the next few months, President Trump and Senator Kamala Harris will likely spend most of their time campaigning in these states, knowing that their voters will decide the outcome of the election.
Criticism of the electoral system
Such narrow victories in recent elections have added to growing criticism that voting strength in presidential elections is determined by where you live.
The least populous states, such as North Dakota and South Dakota, and small New England states, are over-represented due to the minimum requirement of three electoral votes.
Each state’s electoral votes are allocated according to population. However, each state gets two additional votes for its senate representatives. This means that less populous states get a minimum of three electoral votes, regardless of population size. Meanwhile, the most populous states — California, Texas, and Florida — are short of electoral representatives.
This means that in Wyoming, each elector represents 195,000 residents, while in Texas, each elector represents 763,000 residents.
This has become even more important recently, with the number of states won by 15% or more (landslide victories) increasing over the past two decades.