It’s Chiefs Week, Bills Mafia! If you ask quarterback Josh Allen, he’ll tell you this is the most important game on the Bills’ schedule, but not because of the opponent, just because it’s the next game. We’re not going to ask him. Because every Buffalo Bills fan knows there’s always a lot at stake when Buffalo and Kansas City meet on the gridiron.
Their chances of earning a No. 1 seed and a playoff bye depend on the outcome of this week’s games in Orchard Park, New York. And while being a No. 2 seed isn’t a terrible position to make the playoffs, it is in jeopardy if the Bills lose and the Pittsburgh Steelers win. Plus, you get bragging rights. The whole “Mahomes vs. Allen” debate, the “Reid vs. McDermott” saga, the “Buffalo vs. Refs” drama, everything will be talked about leading up to and during the game. And a few days after the game.
But despite that, there are 13 other games being played in Week 11, 11 of which could impact Buffalo’s final seeding at the end of Week 18.
The current AFC standings entering Week 11 are as follows:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (8-2) Miami Dolphins (3-6) New York Jets (3-7) New England Patriots (3-7)
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-6, 3-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6, 2-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
11. New York Jets (3-7, 2-1 in NE games)
12. New England Patriots (3 wins, 7 losses, 0 wins and 3 losses in NYJ games)
13. Cleveland Browns (2-7, 2-3 AFC)
14. Tennessee Titans (2-7, 2-4 AFC)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 2-5 AFC)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
As for playoff contenders, Baltimore and Houston have tiebreakers against Buffalo, and of course, there’s a tiebreaker at stake this week with the top-seeded Chiefs. The Bills will not play the Steelers, Chargers or Broncos before the end of the regular season. While it’s unlikely that Denver or Los Angeles will steal the AFC West from the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s equally unlikely that the Bills will lose their stronghold at the top of the AFC East, although that possibility still exists mathematically. do.
Well, now that we know what our priorities are, let’s take a look at which games are important to the future fortunes of the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo Bills (8-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (CBS)
As members of the Bills Mafia, we all know how important bragging rights are when Allen and the others outscore the Chiefs. Add in the fact that Kansas City has yet to lose a game in 2024, and the win becomes that much sweeter. And if that’s not enough, if Buffalo wins, there will only be one game between the top two teams in the AFC with the Bills holding the tiebreaker.
Of course…Gobills!
AFC East
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS)
Certainly, if the Dolphins win, the Bills’ strength of victory (SOV) will improve (and as such, it wouldn’t be terrible if they won on Sunday). However, if Buffalo wins and Miami loses, the Dolphins, who some analysts expected to win the division this year, will be eliminated from the division championship candidacy with just one more loss.
Los Angeles Rams (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-7)
Sunday, 1pm ET (FOX)
Buffalo hasn’t played either of these teams yet – they will in the next few weeks – so with that in mind, this is exactly the same as the Miami game above. The Bills win, the Patriots lose, and they’ll lose again next week, while Buffalo gets a bye and New England is all but guaranteed to advance to the AFC East — officially.
Indianapolis Colts (4-6) vs. New York Jets (3-7)
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS)
The Bills had wins over both the Jets and Colts, but they have one more game against New York at the end of the season, so that win could be nullified if the Jets pull off an upset in Buffalo in December. Of course, the Colts beat the Steelers and the Bills beat the Colts, so Buffalo gets the point there when it comes to games in general. However, the Jets are also the team chosen to be the top of the AFC East in the summer, so it would be a good idea for him to submit his resignation early. Just like with the two teams above, that could happen in the first weekend of December if all goes well.
AFC remaining games
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) vs. Detroit Lions (8-1)
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS)
The Bills will need to do everything in their power to avoid finishing with the same number of wins and losses as other AFC teams, but if they play the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’ll need the highest SOV score they can get. And so far, what they have is not very expensive. If the Jaguars win, that will happen quickly. The Bills will play the Lions in Week 15, but that game hasn’t happened yet, so it’s best to root for what we know.
New Orleans Saints (3-7) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-7)
Sunday, 1pm ET (FOX)
Buffalo won’t play either team, but the Steelers will play the Browns. Cleveland has very few wins, but the more L’s the better for Pittsburgh from a schedule-of-schedule (SOS) (or less likely SOV) perspective.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS)
I know, all we did was talk about crushing the Steelers. But here’s the problem. If the Ravens tie with the Bills, they will get a better seed. There is zero chance that Buffalo will beat Baltimore and take the lead. The head-to-head is the most important tiebreaker, so keep rooting for your opponent until Baltimore is safely a few games behind the Bills. This week, at least Buffalo has a chance to break the tie with the Steelers, meaning the Ravens will need a wild card spot.
Tennessee Titans (2-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS)
Let’s get back to talking about the partnership with Pittsburgh. Improve Buffalo’s SOV and increase their chances of being a better seed than the Steelers. The more teams the Bills win, the better Buffalo will look. Additionally, the Bills have a former Vikings pick in the 2025 NFL Draft (acquired in the Stefon Diggs trade). If Minnesota loses, that pick’s value might go up just a little bit more. So, it bears repeating, but this weekend is Titan Up.
Denver Broncos (5-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (FOX)
The Steelers won against both teams, but the Bills also won’t be playing. However, the Broncos currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot. Things could get even more interesting at the bottom of the wild card race, with both the Colts and Bengals looking to take the spot from Denver. Honestly, trying to pick a winner here will probably come down to who we want to play in the playoffs, but for now we’ll keep it simple and just because we’re allowed. and keep the Bengals out of the playoffs. Do the little things — this is how we do it.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC)
Tired of talking about the Steelers yet? Sorry, there’s one more thing. Pittsburgh defeated the Chargers. Yes, they have two chances to beat the Bengals in the final month of the season, but there are two things to remember: (1) We are not dealing with unknowns and Cincinnati has momentum. (2) Of these two teams, only the Chargers have a winning record (which is important for the SOV score).
Dallas Cowboys (3-6) vs. Houston Texans (6-4)
Monday, 8:15pm ET (ESPN)
Like the Ravens, the Bills are out of luck if they end up tied with the Texans at the end of the regular season. If Houston’s problem is that they have fewer wins than Buffalo after Week 18, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.
NFC games impacting the bill
Seattle Seahawks (4-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (FOX)
The Bills had a great game in Seattle three weeks ago and came back with a 31-10 win. Of course, this puts the Seahawks on the back foot, and they are currently below .500. Currently, the only team Buffalo has beaten is the Arizona Cardinals. Of course, they’ll play the 49ers on a bye, but Seattle wins this week, both teams win next week, and Buffalo has a chance to beat a two-win team and advance to the top three in Week 12. be.
Games that don’t involve the Buffalo Bills
NFL teams win by default
Even if the Bills win on Sunday, nothing will happen except the Bills Mafia will get some bragging rights and lots of fun social media posts. The bye week is long, but not disastrous, and Buffalo will be much closer to winning its fifth AFC East title. But if they lose, the period from the end of Week 11 to the beginning of Week 13 will be like a Sunday, all talk about football and nothing to listen to.
So let’s take a look at the AFC playoff picture if everything goes Buffalo’s way in Week 11.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-4)
7. Denver Broncos (6-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 4-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6, 3-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-7)
11. New York Jets (3 wins, 8 losses, 2 wins, 1 loss in Northeastern games)
12. New England Patriots (3 wins, 8 losses, 0 wins and 3 losses in NYJ games)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-7, 2-4 AFC)
14. Las Vegas Raiders (3-7, 2-5 AFC)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
16. Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Now you know who to root for, who to root against, and which games to watch during Week 11.
Go Bills!
