NFL action has never been closer through the first nine weeks of the season. In 2024, 75 games were decided by seven points or less, the most in NFL history through the first nine weeks of a season, according to CBS Sports Research.
The margin is so narrow that anyone could win in any given week, and anything could happen in any given week. So what surprising series of events will unfold in Week 10? Let’s take a closer look at the latest batch of bold predictions from CBS Sports NFL.
Panthers win first game with Bryce Young as starting QB outside Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, is 0-10 on the road and the best player in his NFL career outside of Bank of America Stadium. I’ve never won a match. In those 10 games, he completed 54.3 percent, averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt, and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7-10.
Week 10’s matchup against the New York Giants, also 2-7, is technically a home game for the Panthers, but it will be held at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Young and the Panthers will look to upset the Giants for Young’s first win at Bank of America Stadium.
The Giants are currently on a four-game losing streak and are the only team in the NFL without a lead since Week 6 of last month. The Giants’ four-game streak without a lead is tied for the longest such drought. Weeks 5 to 8 of 2000 and 2019, Daniel Jones’ rookie year. In fact, New York has lost 12 of Jones’ last 15 starts. The only thing Carolina has to stop New York from doing that is going after Young with the NFL’s best pass rush. Their 35 sacks as a team lead the league, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence’s nine sacks are second-most in the entire NFL. But Carolina is ready to meet the challenge after splurging up front in the offseason. The Panthers have allowed the fifth-lowest quarterback pressure rate in the NFL (29.9%) and have allowed just 17 sacks, tied for eighth-fewest in the league. I expect Carolina and Young to hang on, run away and win.
The New England Patriots (2-7) lost their fourth straight road game, while the Chicago Bears (4-4) won their first three home games of the season.
However, New England will end its losing streak thanks to quarterback Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in 2024, defeating quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. Maye, who has six passing touchdowns and 209 rushing yards in five career games, is the first player to have five or more passing touchdowns and at least 200 rushing yards in five games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. He became the first rookie. Last week, Williams completed just 22 of 41 passes (53.7%) for 217 yards and was sacked six times in a 29-9 Week 9 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Chicago’s third-down conversion rate over the past two weeks was 19.2%. They have the worst record in the NFL, with five scoreless quarters in the last two weeks.
The Patriots aren’t the better team, but Maye’s magic trumps Williams’ magic while the Bears are trying to find themselves and Maye is tearing it apart.
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Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs offense scores 30+ points against Broncos’ No. 3 scoring defense
Some may look at this bold prediction and disagree with this column’s entry. Let’s dig into why it’s so bold and why it comes to fruition.
First, let’s talk about the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions are 8-0 and the last undefeated team in the NFL in 2024, but they haven’t won in style points. According to CBS Sports Research, they have the lowest point differential (+56) of any 8-0 team in NFL history. Patrick Mahomes has been playing mediocre football this season. With 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions, he ranks 28th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks in touchdown-to-interception ratio and 18th in passer rating (90.1). Both of those performances are career lows in a season where he made multiple starts.
The last time these teams met in Week 8 of last season, the Denver Broncos lost 24-9, the third-biggest loss of Mahomes’ career. His 11 career interceptions and 21 career sacks against the Broncos are both the most against any opponent in his career. Mahomes’ last four games against Denver have been fruitless. He has seven passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, and has been sacked 11 times.
This is on top of the fact that the Broncos have allowed just 17.9 points per game this season and have the NFL’s third-best scoring defense. Denver’s 31 sacks are second-most in the NFL, rank third in quarterback pressure rate (40.2%), and lead the league in blitz rate (42.6%). Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl MVP and considered the best player in the NFL today, doesn’t see many blitzes. He’s been blitzed on 20% of his dropbacks this season, the second-lowest rate in the league.
In Week 9, after Denver sold out trying to stop the Baltimore Ravens’ run game, Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns, leading to a blowout loss for the team. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid will be able to identify weaknesses and exploit them to score at least 30 points for the second time this season.
This season, no quarterback and wide receiver duo has been more compatible than the Detroit Lions’ dynamic duo of Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. According to NFL Pro Insights, St. Brown has caught Goff’s last 30 targets, the longest single-season streak by a quarterback-wide receiver-tight end duo since at least 1991. . He has caught a receiving touchdown in six consecutive games, tying the longest single-season streak in Lions history, according to CBS Sports Research.
In Week 10 against the Houston Texans, Goff committed an incomplete throw when finally targeting St. Brown, and the two did not connect for a touchdown in the end zone. Here are some reasons why. In first place is Texans cornerback Derek Stingley, whose 52.1 passer rating allowed in man coverage this season is the fifth-lowest of any NFL cornerback this season, with at least 10 targets allowed in man coverage. are. The other thing is Houston’s pass rush. They generate pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL (42%), according to NFL Pro Insights, and Goff releases the ball as soon as pressure comes on, averaging 0.41 seconds after the initial pressure. I’ll throw it. This is the second one. Fastest in the league, according to NFL Pro Insights. Stingley and the Texans’ combination of edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Daniel Hunter will slow down Goff and St. Brown in a way not seen since they began a six-game winning streak in Week 3.
Chargers’ WR Quentin Johnston has over 100 receiving yards in two consecutive games against the Titans’ No. 1 pass defense.
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston, the 21st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was heavily criticized for his lackluster rookie year, but he has started to turn things around in his second year. . He played in his first career game and gained over 100 receptions for yards against the Cleveland Browns in Week 9, gaining 118 receiving yards and a touchdown and catching four of five targets. . That included a 66-yard scoring attack that went behind the entire defense.
He’ll have a tough job in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans, who allow the fewest passing yards per game in the entire league (155.8), but Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is starting to get hot. He’s thrown for 286.8 passing yards per game over the past four games and is on pace for career-highs in passing yards per attempt (7.7) and passer rating (101.6). Herbert and Johnston continue to make their mark and add to the NFL’s top pass defense.
