Blue states could be an early test for Trump’s coalition

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, our evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki details how New Jersey could provide an early test for Donald Trump’s coalition. Additionally, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur found that senators from both parties are skeptical of President Trump’s recent calls regarding Dreamers.

Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.

Blue states could be an early test for Trump’s coalition

Written by Steve Kornacki

One of Donald Trump’s biggest gains this year came in New Jersey, one of the best-performing states in the country. The president-elect lost to Kamala Harris in the Garden State by six points, a double-digit improvement from his 16-point loss to Joe Biden in 2020.

Key to Mr. Trump’s growing support was a significant increase in the number of Hispanic voters, a national trend even more pronounced in New Jersey, where just over one in five residents are Hispanic. It was part of. He also made notable gains with Asian American voters and Muslim and Arab American voters in some parts of the state, while increasing his already strong position in Orthodox Jewish areas. further increased. Again, a consistent pattern was seen across the country.

The big question that will emerge in the 2024 election is whether the Republican Party can maintain and even build on this new demographic coalition, even without Trump himself on the ballot. This means New Jersey’s upcoming gubernatorial election in 2025 could be an early test.

The scale of some of the changes within New Jersey this year is staggering. In all six major cities or towns where Hispanics make up 70% or more of the population, the gap has moved toward Trump by at least 20 points compared to 2020. And compared to 2016, it’s even more dramatic.

The state’s largest city, Newark, has lost some of its status as a Democratic voting center due to increased support for Trump among Hispanics. Nearly half of the city’s 305,000 residents are black, but the Hispanic population is growing and now makes up nearly 40 percent of Newark’s population. Mr. Trump suffered another blowout loss in the city this year, losing to Kamala Harris by 58 points, a significant improvement from the 85-point difference he suffered in his first run in 2016.

A similar story is unfolding in the North Jersey town of Palisades Park, which has one of the highest concentrations of Korean Americans in the country. In Palisades Park, which is 63% Asian American, Trump lost by just 5 points in November, up from 22 points in 2020 and 32 points in 2016.

And then there’s Lakewood, home to the largest Orthodox Jewish community outside of Israel. The town’s population has more than doubled from 60,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 according to last year’s census, and shows no signs of slowing down. This has become a major source of Republican support across the state, allowing Trump to reach new heights. When Trump first ran for office in 2016, he led Lakewood by 50 points. This November, he pushed that number to 75 points.

In the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democrats are clearly hoping that Trump’s demographic penetration will be Trump-specific. And they have at least some reason for optimism. In the state’s U.S. Senate race this year, Democrat Andy Kim outperformed Harris in all of these areas. In Passaic, for example, she defeated her Republican opponent by six points, giving her a net 13-point advantage over Harris.

But Republicans know that even though Kim is ahead of Harris, his level of support in these communities still tends to be significantly lower than the pre-Trump level of Democratic support. It is possible that you have it in mind.

All of these places will be worth keeping an eye on as the gubernatorial race unfolds.

Senators skeptical of President Trump’s call for bipartisan agreement on Dreamers

Written by Sahil Kapur

When President-elect Donald Trump said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that he was interested in striking a deal with Democrats to protect Dreamers, who were brought to the United States at an early age. Some senators felt a bit of deja vu.

“We have to do something about the Dreamers, because they are people who were brought here at a young age, and many of them are now middle-aged and older. They don’t even speak their language.” President Trump told host Kristen Welker. “I’m going to work with the Democrats to come up with a plan.”

When asked about Trump’s comments, leading Senate Republicans did not close the door to a deal, but expressed skepticism about its prospects.

“Look, we’ve missed the sweet spot on immigration reform over and over again. But clearly, if there’s a bipartisan appetite to tackle this issue, there are things we can do. We will respond positively,” said incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R.S.D. “In the long run, it would be nice if we could come up with some kind of legislative solution, but in the last few administrations everything has been done through executive action, so something has to happen to break this impasse. You will need it.”

Trump used similar rhetoric during his first term, but his actions told a different story. As president in 2017, he sought to end the DACA program, which protects undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children from deportation. And in 2018, Sens. Mike Rounds (R.D.) and Angus King (R-Maine) launched a bipartisan push to give legal status to Dreamers while giving President Trump money to build a border wall. When the deal was signed, President Trump’s White House successfully fought to break it. It also did not reduce family-based immigration.

Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who proposed the original DREAM Act in 2001, welcomed the talks Sunday, saying he was “listening carefully” to President Trump’s comments on the issue.

“My ears were ringing. After 23 years, I was ready,” he said. “Sit down anytime, anywhere.”

“But there are reasons to be skeptical, if not cynical,” Durbin added.

Read more →

More reaction to the MTP interview: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Mississippi), who served as chairman of the now-defunct House Jan. 6 Committee, said in a “Meet the Press” interview that the He objected to President Trump’s suggestion that former members of the group be imprisoned. Read more →

That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

And if you’re a fan, please share it with everyone. You can sign up here.