As the spread of avian influenza through U.S. poultry flocks accelerates, egg prices are on track to match or exceed prices in December 2022, when post-pandemic inflation fears were at their height. It’s rising.
The average price of 12 large Grade A eggs was $3.65 in November, up from $3.37 in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week. As the stock continues to struggle, it has risen from $2.50 at the beginning of the year. It continues to disrupt the U.S. egg supply.
The U.S. egg-laying flock in October was down 3% from a year earlier, or 315 million birds, and egg production was down 4%, according to the USDA.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), egg prices have increased by 37.5% compared to a year ago. Overall food prices rose 2.4% over the same period.
The price increases are due to shoppers stocking up for the holidays and to smaller flocks of laying hens as producers have not recovered from losses from bird flu over the past two years.
Wholesale prices for large eggs reached $5.57 per dozen in the Midwest on Wednesday, up 150% from a year ago and topping the previous record of $5.46 set in December 2022, according to commodity data firm Expana.
In California, where regulations prohibit farmers from keeping chickens in cages, the price of a dozen eggs is at an all-time high of $8.85 per dozen, according to the data firm. Some stores in the state have caps on egg purchases.
The egg situation could get even worse for the $67 billion poultry industry. The USDA lowered its 2025 egg production and export forecasts, but raised its price outlook.
The spread of bird flu (California declared a state of emergency this week after H5N1, the virus that causes bird flu, was detected on hundreds of dairy farms in the state) is taking a toll on chicken flocks. . Of the 35 million laying hens killed by the virus this year, almost half contracted the virus within the past three months.
This month, workers in Iowa, the top egg-producing state, began culling a massive flock of 4.2 million chickens that had tested positive.
Egg prices, a basic indicator of consumer economic sentiment, have become an election issue for both political parties ahead of the November national election. Polls consistently find that inflation is a top concern for voters who have been hit by rising grocery store prices.
President-elect Donald Trump has made lowering food prices a key part of his campaign. He later acknowledged that it could be “very difficult” to bring prices down.
Fundamental concerns are also growing that avian influenza could spark a new pandemic scenario. Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of the first severe case in Louisiana, in a person who kept a flock of birds in his backyard.
According to federal data, 61 people have been infected with the virus so far this year, most among people who came into contact with dairy cows. The H5 variant is different in cattle and poultry, and the former was also found to have killed two domestic cats and infected three others in California.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters that the USDA has the money to buy poultry vaccines and it makes sense for the incoming Trump administration to continue supporting vaccine development.
In September, ahead of the bird migration season, U.S. farmers asked the Biden administration to allow avian influenza vaccinations for chickens, turkeys and cattle.
Lawmakers say the USDA should accelerate vaccine research. “It is clear that there is no end in sight to the current outbreak,” more than a dozen members of Congress, led by Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra and Democratic Rep. Jim Costa, wrote in a letter to Vilsack.
Vilsack has previously said vaccine campaigns could become a barrier to exports if importing countries realize the vaccines may be hiding the presence of the virus.
“Wide-scale vaccination of commercial poultry is not possible in the short term,” Vilsack wrote in a March letter to members of Congress reported by Reuters.
