Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I would like to start things off today by letting everyone know that I have had leftover turkey for every meal for four straight days and I will now never be eating turkey again.
The way I feel about turkey is how I think Ravens’ fans now feel about Justin Tucker. Does that make sense? I have no idea, but the Baltimore kicker had another nightmare day as he missed three kicks in a 24-19 loss to the Eagles.
Speaking of nightmares, the 49ers are probably going to be seeing Josh Allen in their nightmares this week. The Bills quarterback made NFL history on Sunday night during Buffalo’s 35-10 win over San Francisco. We’ll be taking a look what Allen did, plus we’ll be handing out grades and giving you some winners and losers from Week 13. We have a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get things rolling.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown.
1. NFL Week 13 grades: Pennsylvania teams shine
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Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do right now. Here’s a look at the grades from two notable games played Sunday:
Steelers 44-38 over Bengals (Click here for full recap)
Steelers takeaway: The Steelers are starting to look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender and it’s all because of Russell Wilson. On a day where Pittsburgh’s defense struggled against Cincinnati’s high-powered offense, the Steelers were able to win a shootout thanks to Wilson, who overcame an early pick six to throw for 414 yards and three touchdowns. If Wilson continues to look this sharp, there’s no reason the Steelers can’t play deep into the postseason. Mike Tomlin made the call to bench Justin Fields in favor of Wilson and he now looks like a genius. As Tomlin says, the standard is the standard, and right now, Wilson is setting a new standard by playing at a level that the Steelers haven’t had at QB since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Grade: B+Bengals takeaway: It might be time for the Bengals to blow up their defense and start over. The defense has been a huge weakness all season and it was never more clear than this game. Russell Wilson threw for 414 yards, which is the most that ANY Steelers quarterback has ever thrown for against the Bengals. The defense gave up at least 520 yards in a game for the second time this season. Joe Burrow had another stellar performance, but he also made several mistakes, including a lost fumble that Pittsburgh returned for a touchdown. When your defense is as bad as Cincinnati’s, you can’t afford to make any mistakes on offense and Burrow found that out the hard way this season. With the Bengals now 4-8, it feels like the 2024 season is going to go down as the most disappointing in franchise history. Grade: D
Eagles 24-19 over Ravens (Click here for full recap)
Eagles takeaway: Last year, the Eagles’ second-half collapse started with a loss in Week 13, but this year, it feels like the Eagles are too good for anything like that to happen. They have a strong rushing attack and a defense playing at a high level, which are two things that come in handy for a team looking to make a deep playoff run come January. Saquon Barkley steamrolled his way to 107 yards against a Ravens rushing defense that was one of the best in the NFL heading into Week 13. The Eagles have now won eight straight games and they’re a very real threat to steal the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Grade: BRavens takeaway: The Ravens officially have a Justin Tucker problem on their hands. Baltimore played well enough to win on both sides of the ball, but three misses by Tucker ended up being the difference in the game. The Ravens kicker missed two field goals and an extra point to continue a nightmare season that’s seen him miss 10 total kicks (eight field goals, two extra points). At this point, the Ravens have to hold their breath every time he goes out for a kick, which isn’t a comfortable feeling for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Grade: B-
As for the other 26 grades I handed out in Week 13, you can check those out by clicking here.
2. NFL Week 13 winners and losers: Kevin O’Connell keeps winning with Vikings
You can’t have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers.
Cody Benjamin came up with this week’s list, and we’re going to check out his losers below.
WINNERS
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell (Vikings 23-22 over Cardinals). “For the second time in his three seasons at the helm of the Vikings, O’Connell is off to a 10-2 start, making Minnesota a surprising force out of the NFC. It’s debatable whether his close wins and opportunistic defense are sustainable, but he’s once again maximizing makeshift parts under center.”Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (Eagles 24-19 over Ravens). “The Ravens boasted one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses not long ago. On Sunday, in arguably the most anticipated game of the week, the Eagles proved superior, repeatedly pressuring Lamar Jackson to break away from the AFC foes in a potential Super Bowl preview.”Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury (Commanders 42-19 over Titans). “Maligned for the Commanders’ recent offensive skid, the coordinator dialed up a seamless attack for Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr. and the rest of the squad in a rout of the Titans, who actually entered with a relatively stingy defense. Washington isn’t dead just yet.”
If you want to see Cody’s list of losers, be sure to click here.
3. 12 crazy stats from Week 13: Josh Allen makes history as Bills pull off Super feat
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Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played.
With that in mind, here are 12 crazy stats about Week 13:
Bills pull off Super feat. After beating the Chiefs in Week 11, the Bills went on a bye before returning to beat the 49ers in Week 13. That makes the Bills just the fourth team in NFL history to beat both Super Bowl teams from the previous season in consecutive games. They join the 1982 Chargers, 1985 Lions and 2016 Falcons.Josh Allen to Josh Allen. The Bills QB threw a TD pass to HIMSELF on Sunday night, becoming just the fifth player in NFL history to pull off that feat (You can see the play here). Allen also became the first QB since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to have a passing TD, receiving TD and rushing TD in the same game. Allen also became just the second player in NFL history with at least two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown in the same game, joining Tony Canadeo, who did it in 1943. The standard is the standard. The Steelers’ win over the Bengals clinched a winning season in Pittsburgh for the 21st year in a row, which ties the Cowboys (1965-85) for the longest streak in NFL history. Mike Tomlin has also now gone 18 straight seasons without a losing record to start his career, which is an NFL record.One-score wonders. Heading into “Monday Night Football,” there have been 12 games decided by one score, which is tied for the most in a single week in NFL history. If the Broncos and Browns play a one-score game tonight, then Week 13 will officially make history. Aaron Rodgers finally blows a big lead at home. Going into Sunday, Rodgers had never lost a true home game where his team led by at least 14 points at any point. Over the course of his career, Rodgers had gone 75-0 in that situation at Lambeau Field and MetLife, but the streak is now over after Seattle came back from a 21-7 deficit to win 26-21 on Sunday.Jets hit rock bottom. By losing to the Seahawks, that means the Jets have now lost twice this season to quarterbacks that they drafted (Geno Smith and Sam Darnold). That’s the first time that’s happened to a team in 26 years (1998 Chargers). Bengals losses are reaching historical levels. The Bengals scored 38 points on Sunday and STILL lost. NFL teams are now 22-2 this season when scoring at least 38 points in a game and that breaks down like this: The Bengals are 1-2, every other team combined is 21-0. The Bengals are just the fifth team in NFL history to lose multiple games in a season where they scored 38 points or more, joining the 1962 Broncos, 1966 Giants, 1983 Chiefs and 2018 Chiefs. We broke down just how historically bad things have been for the Bengals, and you can check that out here.Joe Burrow joins unfortunate club. The Bengals QB threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns and has now thrown for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games. He’s now just the second QB to hit those numbers in three straight games and go 0-3 during that span, joining Andrew Luck.Thick six record. With a 92-yard pick six against the Jets, Leonard Williams set the NFL record for longest pick six by a player who weighs at least 300 pounds. Williams also racked up two sacks. The sack became an official stat in 1982 and Williams became the first player in that span to have multiple sacks, a pick six and a blocked kick in the same game. Trey McBride makes history. After catching 12 passes in Week 12, McBride followed that up with 13 receptions in Week 13, which makes him the first tight end in NFL history to record at least 12 receptions in consecutive games.Commanders pick up rare December home win. Washington’s win over the Titans marked the first time in SEVEN YEARS that the Commanders won a December game at home. The last time it happened came all the way back in 2017 when they went 2-0 at home in December. Since then, the Commanders had lost 10 straight before ending the streak with their 42-19 win on Sunday. In command. With three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown against the Titans, Jayden Daniels became just the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to have multiple touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in consecutive games, joining Charlie Conerly (1948) and Kent Nix (1967).
If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.
4. NFL Week 13 overreactions: Will Bengals fire Zac Taylor?
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 13 to decide if we’re all overreacting.
Statement: The Ravens need to replace Justin Tucker.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “The Ravens are a Super Bowl-caliber team, but their best strength for years is now their biggest weakness. No kicker can replace the value of Tucker: When he’s on, he’s one of the best in NFL history. The Ravens just have to ride with Tucker and hope he figures it out. They don’t have another choice.”
Statement: Zac Taylor will NOT be the head coach of the Bengals next season.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “Something is wrong with this Bengals team. Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career and this team can’t get off the field. They have scored 99 points in their last three games and are 0-3 in that stretch. They have four losses with 33+ points (the most in NFL history) and six losses with 25+ points (tied for the most in NFL history). No coach can survive that with this talent on the roster. The Bengals need a change, as they sit three games behind the Broncos in the loss column for the final playoff spot. They need to win out to have a shot, but the defense just isn’t good enough. Taylor will take the fall, and the Bengals will retool this offseason.”
Statement: Buccaneers are going to win the NFC South.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “The Buccaneers are tied with the Falcons for the NFC South lead after their win over the Panthers. Is there any reason to believe the Buccaneers can actually take the division from the Falcons after struggling just to beat Carolina? Remember, Atlanta has the head-to-head tiebreaker, so the Buccaneers can’t tie the Falcons in this division, they have to pass Atlanta. The Falcons still have control of the NFC South, but the margin for error is officially gone.”
There are plenty more overreactions from Week 13, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.
5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Browns at Broncos
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The final game of Week 13 will be taking place in Denver, but it won’t be a snow game. The forecast tonight is calling for a kickoff temperature that will be hovering around 42 degrees, which is practically tropical weather for Denver in December.
The Browns (3-8) will be looking to play spoiler against a Broncos team (7-5) that is currently slotted into the final wild-card spot in the AFC.
Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
Why the Browns can win: The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but if you can run the ball on Denver, then you can beat them. The Broncos are 0-4 this year when they surrender 120 yards or more on the ground, which means if Nick Chubb can get Cleveland’s rushing attack going, then the Browns might be able to pull off the upset.Why the Broncos can win: On paper, the Broncos have the better team, they just need Bo Nix to be smart with the football. Nix has thrown at least one interception in four different games and the Broncos have gone 0-4 in those games. Nix doesn’t need to put up huge numbers for Denver to win, he just needs to play smart football, because Denver’s defense is good enough to take over the game. The Broncos defense has forced at least one turnover in eight different games and they’ve gone 7-1 in those games. The defense sets the tone for the Broncos and if they force the Browns into making mistakes, it’s going to be a long day for Cleveland.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Bo Nix OVER 245.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Nix has gone over this number in four of his past five games and during that span, he’s averaged 269.4 passing/rushing yards per game. In the last two weeks alone, Nix has gone over 275 yards twice and I feel like he could get near that number tonight, which would put him WAY over 245.5.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Will Lutz OVER 7.5 points (-120 at BetMGM): The Broncos kicker has gone over this number in two straight games and that includes last week when he scored 17 of Denver’s 29 points in a win over the Raiders. I don’t think we’ll see Lutz score that many again, but I do think we’ll see him put up a big number. Lutz has 27 field goal attempts this year, which ranked sixth in the NFL heading into Week 13.
And in case you’re wondering, my props are now 30-25 on the season (14-12 on kicker props and 16-13 on all other props). Also, I’m going to point out that seven of my 12 kicker props have come up empty because of a missed field goal and that includes Black Friday when Daniel Carlson missed a CAREER-HIGH three field goals in a game where I bet the over on 5.5 points. I am a giant jinx, so good luck tonight to Will Lutz. Also, this is why you should never gamble).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
BROWNS-BRONCOS PICKS
My pick: Broncos 24-13 over Browns
Dubin’s pick: Broncos 23-16 over Browns
Prisco’s pick: Broncos 24-14 over Browns
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our experts are unanimous: We’re all taking the Broncos to win and cover as a 5.5-point favorite.
6. Extra points: Christian McCaffrey likely out for the season
It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
Christian McCaffrey suffers knee injury on Sunday night. The 49ers running back left the game on Sunday night after suffering a knee injury. McCaffrey was injured after getting tackled at his feet on an 18-yard run. He tried to stay in for another play, but immediately fell to the ground after taking a pitch from Brock Purdy. The 49ers star injured his PCL and although his return timeline isn’t set yet, there’s a good chance he could miss the rest of the regular season. You can read more about McCaffrey’s injury here. McCaffrey had 67 yards on just nine touches before leaving the game early in the second quarter. Aaron Rodgers might get benched. The Jets QB gave a vague answer on Sunday when he was asked if he thought the Jets might make a quarterback change at some point in the near future. “I don’t know,” he said. “We’ll figure that out when we have those conversations.” Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich also left the door open, and let’s not forget, Woody Johnson wanted to bench Rodgers back in October, so a QB change could be coming. Ulbrich did say that Rodgers will start in Week 14 against the Dolphins, but things will definitely get interesting if Rodgers struggles again this week. You can read more about the Jets’ QB drama here. Lions sign three-time Pro Bowler. The Lions added some defensive depth on Sunday with the signing of Jamal Adams to their practice squad. The former Pro Bowl safety started the season in Tennessee, but was cut by the Titans in October. If you want a few more details on the signing, you can get those here. Taysom Hill likely out for the season. The Saints’ utility man is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury during New Orleans’ 21-14 loss to the Rams on Sunday. You can read more about Hill’s injury here. Trevor Lawrence ‘feeling better’ after brutal hit. The Jaguars QB was knocked out of the game with a concussion on Sunday after taking a brutal hit from Houston’s Aziz Al-Shaair (You can see the hit here). Al-Shaair was immediately ejected after the hit. As for Lawrence, he tweeted out on Sunday night that he’s already feeling better. You can read our full story on the Jags’ QB here.
