Australian Open Final X-Factor

Heritage is at work here.

Over the course of two hours or so during Saturday’s Australian Open Final (7:30pm, 3:30am local time), Aryna Sabalenka or Madison Keys will realize the biggest achievement of her career.

The No.1 PIF WTA ranking is safe for now, with Sabalenka seeking her third consecutive title at The Australian Open, her fourth major championship in the last eight.

For Key, who played professional tennis for more than half of her life, it’s an opportunity to change the career narrative. This is her second major final, more than seven years after the first, and the longest gap in the Open Era. Keys says she considers the 2017 U.S. Open final, loss to American Sloane Stevens, “the past eight years endlessly.”

To get here, Sabalenka defeated her best friend Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2. No. 19 seed Key then won a dramatic 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8) over No. 2 Iga Swiatek.

Keys, who turns 30 next month, could become the first woman in 19 years to play in the final two Grand Slam matches. Maria Sharapova upset Amelie Mauremo and Justin Henin at the 2006 US Open.

The two won 24 of 25 games to start the year.

Sabalenka had been the victor in four of the previous five meetings, but one of those losses is a tantalizing asterisk. Keys won the first set of the semifinals at the 2023 US Open with a score of 6-0.

And now it’s almost here. wtatennis.com writers Greg Garber and Courtney Nguyen make the case for the two finalists.

Advantage, Sabalenka

Badosa was 2-0, 40 favorites in the semifinals, with Sabalenka coming back to win 12 of the final 16 games.

“If she plays like this,” Badosa later told reporters, “we can already give her a trophy.”

For almost three years, Sabalenka has been stressing for herself. She has won 20 consecutive races in Melbourne and is on the cusp of a three-peat and quite a history. She won three consecutive Grand Slam titles over the course of this century, becoming only the fourth woman to win her first Down Under.

Her first major as a No. 1 seed went very well. She only dropped one set and looked, well, invincible.

“I think what’s really impressive is her mentality,” Keyes said. “She plays such fearless tennis. She has the ability to play so well like that. I think it’s very unique.

“I think it’s impressive on her part, but it’s a little bit more on her opponents knowing that you’re not always going to play passive, so you always have to try to score points. Give me a quick point that you think will put some pressure on you.”

Sabalenka’s success at the Australian Open was a perfect storm of athleticism, now almost unshakable confidence, and a fondness for fast courts and friendly crowds. She is the first woman to reach three consecutive finals here since Serena Williams (2015-17). A win over Keyes would give her 29 match wins.

“Last year,” she said, “I thought, I feel like I’m at home, I feel great here, I feel all the support.” I feel it even more this year. I feel like I’ve come home. ”

I know everything. I know where to warm up so it’s not that crowded. I go there and I feel like people are screaming my name. I’m there every time they yell, “Let’s go to Alina.” It’s incredible to feel that support here. ”

Courtney is the final statistic that highlights what Key is up against. The world No. 1 has played 18 Grand Slam finals against players outside the top 10. No. 1 was the winner in the 16th inning. It’s hard to argue with that.

Case closed. – Greg Garber

advantage, key

Whatever you do, Frances Tiafoe, don’t text Madison’s Keys. Nearing age 30, Keys enters his second Grand Slam final, knocking out three top-10 seeds to extend his career-best winning streak to 11 wins.

So I say again, Frances, put down your phone.

“There are jokes like this in the past where he didn’t say pre-tournament or anything,” Keyes said. .

“So we have this new rule. Like I saw him a few days ago, I said, don’t text me, I don’t want to hear from you at all, just text me. Leave me alone, we’ll talk later about the tournament.”

Keys is the feel-good story of the Australian Open. This, as her husband and coach Bjorn Fratangelo explained, “proves that she still has the juice to lemon.” It’s the atmosphere that proves that you are.

“When I started, I thought I was almost 30 years old and I don’t know if I thought I was playing at the level that I’m playing.

“It’s something I definitely don’t take for granted and just try to roll with it and show some of these young guys that they have a lot, many years left. please show me.”

The difference is that these “young guys” don’t have the big ball-striking ability that resides in Keys’ right arm. Sabalenka is one of the most powerful bass liners on the Hologic WTA tour, but admits that playing the keys can make her feel like a featherweight.

This year, Keys built a tour-best 13-1 record with a new racquet and moved away from his trusty Wilson frame for Yonex. It was an offseason change to modernize her equipment and give her more margin without sacrificing an ounce of power. She also somehow becomes even more aggressive. Key is doing everything she used to do. The difference is that her number of errors has decreased.

“I think she was always dangerous,” Sweet said after her loss. “But this time she played everything.”

That’s the key to what Sabalenka will turn on Saturday, a calmer, more mature, harder-hitting player playing with home money. She returned to the top 10 on the PIF WTA Tour on Monday and showed she is a force once again with wins over Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula over the past three weeks.

So when it comes to nerves on Saturday, Keys won’t play like a woman who thinks this is her last chance at Grand Slam glory. That may have been the case at the US Open nine years ago, when she was highly favored. But this is the key to a freer, happier and calmer Madison. And it’s a version built to pull off yet another seismic shake. – Courtney Nguyen