While parts of the East Coast are still recovering from the destruction caused by the remains of Hurricane Debbie, the next Atlantic front is developing into a tropical storm.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s latest “Probable Track” forecast, potential Tropical Depression No. 5 formed 875 miles east-southeast of Antigua and is moving west-northwest at 23 mph, with several Caribbean islands in its sights, including the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The potential cyclone is intensifying quickly, and the center said it will likely be named a tropical depression by the end of Monday, which would mark the next Atlantic storm to be given the name Ernesto.
If it eventually strengthens enough, it would need sustained winds of 74 mph or more to become a hurricane, the third of the season. So far, the National Hurricane Center has not said the front is heading toward hurricane strength.
The potential cyclone recorded maximum winds of 30 mph on Sunday night. It would need maximum winds of 39 mph to develop into a tropical storm. As the tentative name suggests, this will be the fifth named storm so far this Atlantic hurricane season.
The potential cyclone has prompted a 48-hour tropical storm watch in the United States, which warns of possible flooding from strong winds, high surf and up to six inches of rain for the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, Sint Eustatius, St. Martin and Sint Maarten.
The front is expected to reach the islands by early Tuesday afternoon, according to the hurricane center.
The center also warned residents of the Leeward Islands, located west of the Caribbean islands where a tropical storm warning was issued, as well as the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, to be on the lookout for a front that could move in early Wednesday morning.
The federal government’s predicted path will see the front move into the Caribbean region before heading straight north into the Atlantic Ocean, remaining off the coast of the continental United States for now.
This potential cyclone formation appears to be in line with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which concludes there’s a 90 percent chance that more storms than usual will form by the time the season ends in November.
A Colorado State University hurricane forecast agrees, citing record warmth in the tropical Atlantic providing plenty of fuel for storms to develop.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a dynamical and thermodynamic environment that is highly favorable for hurricane development and intensification,” the institute said in its latest forecast released Sunday.
“We expect the probability of major hurricanes making landfall to be well above average,” he added.
