TEHRAN — As the world awaits Iran’s next foreign move, talk inside Iran is focused not only on what a retaliatory strike against Israel would mean for the Middle East, but also for Iran’s economy and freedom.
NBC News spoke to several Tehran residents after the city’s leaders rejected Western calls to refrain from attacks that the U.S. has signaled may be coming this week.
“I’m not a person who supports war or aggression,” said Omid, the IT professional. “In this case, Iran’s leadership needs to consider that openly attacking Israel to demonstrate military power could come at a huge economic and political cost for Iran, especially given the current turbulent economic situation,” he said. Omid did not want to give his last name for fear of repercussions.
Omid said he was certain that Israel would retaliate if Iran attacked, but that no one could predict what would happen next. “If the Iranian leadership decides to retaliate, it should do so secretly and without leaving any evidence,” added Omid, 40.
A portrait of Hamas’ new leader, Yahya Sinwar, appears on a billboard in Tehran on Monday. Atta Kenareh/AFP – Getty Images
The country’s newly installed President Masoud Pezechkian, elected last month on a platform of reformist policies, is likely pondering the potential domestic impact of the worsening conflict for a country already struggling with years of harsh sanctions and a crackdown on dissent following a series of mass protests in 2022 that shook the foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was assassinated in the Iranian capital last month after attending Pezechkian’s inauguration. Both Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination. Israel has not commented on the incident but is widely believed to have carried out the attack.
Iran has vowed to take “severe action” over the assassination, but it remains unclear when and how it will act.
President Joe Biden suggested Tuesday that Tehran may not retaliate at all if a ceasefire is reached to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages, and new talks are due to start on Thursday in Qatar.
As the United States and its allies scramble to avoid a wider conflict, Pezechkian said in a phone call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer that it was Iran’s “legal right” to respond. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani on Tuesday dismissed Western calls to avoid escalating tensions in the region.
Kanani accused Israel of violating Iran’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” by killing Haniya in Tehran, and said calling on Iran to de-escalate “lacks political logic” and “would amount to open and actual support for sources of international crime and terrorism in the region.”
But some in Tehran told NBC News that Iran can continue to keep Israel on edge without taking major retaliatory measures.
“There is no need for attacks,” said Nima Hosseini, a government official. “A like-for-like response at the right time would be a better option. Of course, this time around, keeping Israel on high alert with rhetoric and verbal threats may be a wise strategy,” Hosseini, 50, said.
The family attended an exhibition at Tehran’s Azadi Square on Tuesday. Atta Kenareh/AFP – Getty Images
There were also concerns that Iran could become embroiled in a broader conflict.
“No one in the world likes war, but I am very worried,” said construction worker Taha Azimi, 40. “I believe Iran will definitely respond to Israeli attacks to restore dignity for its country.”
He said the killing of an important political partner in Tehran has caused Iran’s leaders many problems both at home and abroad and that Haniyeh’s assassination is “unacceptable” to Iran’s leaders.
“For example, people inside the country believe that the government is incapable of managing security in the capital, while people abroad have concluded that there are many spies in Iran’s security system,” Azimi said.
Iran launched limited retaliatory attacks against Israel in April, marking the first time Tehran has directly attacked the Jewish state.
Delaram Nemati, 30, a construction worker, said Iran would likely launch a similar limited attack this time “without any danger.” But she worries it could lead to a larger conflict. “I’m worried about war, but I try not to think about it,” she said.
Amin Khodadadi reported from Tehran and Yuliya Talmazan from London.
