Since the Australian Open pairings were announced two weeks ago, all eyes have been on the two players who have exchanged the No. 1 spot in the rankings for nearly three years.
Expectations rose as No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Iga Swiatek methodically advanced through the field. If either team wins the title in the final, they will have won eight of the past 12 major titles.
But Thursday’s Australian Open semi-final has yet to take place, with two notable obstacles standing in its way.
For several months, former world No. 2 Paula Badosa wondered if she would ever be able to play tennis again after sustaining a serious back injury. Until recently, she was contemplating retirement, but now she’s reached her first career Grand Slam semifinal.
Less than a month shy of her 30th birthday, Madison Keys has made some bold changes to her racket, strings and service motion for the season. And 10 years after her first major semi-final, she was here again.
Australian Open: Score | Schedule | Draw
Here are the claims for each of the semi-finalists:
No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.11 Paula Badosa
Thursday, 7:30pm local time (3:30pm ET), Rod Laver Arena
Matchup: Sabalenka won 5-2, their only meeting at a Grand Slam tournament coming in the third round at Roland Garros last year.
Sabalenka’s case: This is a strong case because Sabalenka has historical scars.
She has won 19 in a row in Melbourne and is aiming for her third straight Australian Open title, her first since the turn of the century.
There were some hiccups in her quarterfinal match against Anastasia Pavliuchenkova, but she won 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in strong winds. And while Sabalenka was forced to problem solve in that decision set, she has gotten much better over the years.
“It has nothing to do with fear or anything like that,” she told reporters. “I think I’m past that stage. I was thinking about how to play in these situations. I had a really hard time finding my rhythm and finding solutions.
“I was having a hard time finding my way, but I found a way. Yes, I’m glad I did it.”
In fact, these hard, fast courts in Melbourne are her happy place. Sabalenka had a 27-5 record at the Australian Open, the highest winning percentage (.844) in a major.
“She’s a great player and has been through a lot,” Sabalenka said of Badosa. “Now she’s back to her best game and I’m really happy to see that. I have to stay aggressive and put a lot of pressure on her.”
For nearly three times at the Australian Open, it was impossible to withstand that pressure.
For Badosa: It’s no exaggeration to say that no player knows Sabalenka better than Badosa. Those seven matches she has played against Sabalenka are more than any other opponent, as are her five losses. Yeah, they’re best friends on tour.
“I got a lot of messages before the game,” Badosa said. “It’s pretty cold. We know very well how to differentiate things. We talked about it a lot. We respect each other and respect each other.
“Obviously it’s going to be a battle on the court, but off the court it’s just normal.”
Sabalenka has won the last five matches between the two, but it’s worth noting that Badosa is 2-1 on hard courts.
The story of the quarterfinals was Badosa’s straight-set victory over third-seeded Coco Gauff. It was her first top-10 finish at a Grand Slam, ended her losing streak at 3-0, and marked the first time in nearly three years that she had beaten a former major champion on the same stage.
Badosa’s success follows recent trends. She became the third player, after Donna Bekic (Wimbledon) and Jessica Pegula (US Open), to reach the semi-finals of consecutive Grand Slam tournaments for the first time after more than 20 main draws.
How close did she come to retirement in the last year?
“I never thought I would be at that level, so I was pretty close,” Badosa said. “My back wasn’t reacting well. I didn’t find a solution. But I wanted to leave it as a last try, a last chance to finish the year, so we’ll see what happens.
“So I’m really proud of what our whole team went through and how we got through it all, especially mentally.”
No.2 Iga Swiatek vs. No.19 Madison Keys
Thursday, 9pm local time (5am ET), Rod Laver Arena
Matchup: Swiatek, 4-1. He has a 3-0 record on clay, but split his record on hard courts in 2022 between Indian Wells and Cincinnati.
Swiatek’s case: Swiatek comes across as a serious, self-deprecating woman in interviews, but listen to this.
“You have to be ruthless in a way on the tennis court,” she told reporters after reaching the semifinals. “This is what I base my strength, consistency and how I continue to do good things on the court.
“It may seem cruel, but that’s not my goal. I just want to win more and more games.”
And you’ll lose less. So far, mission accomplished.
Check out the score of Swiatek’s match here.
6-3, 6-4
6-0, 6-2
6-1, 6-0
6-0, 6-1
6-1, 6-2
This was a very clean card, with 14 games dropped in five matches, but only seven games in the last four, and less than one game conceded per set. During the Australian Open era of 128 draws, fewer dropped games were played, and only Sharapova, Seles, and Graf (whose names are not needed) made it to the final four at the Australian Open.
Ruthless.
For the first time in his career, Swiatek has not lost a service game in four consecutive matches. She plays with amazing intensity. Her concentration is unwavering and her footwork is perfect. After serving a one-month suspension and recently resolving a drug case, she’s smashing forehands and playing with freedom and passion.
Swiatek plays with an unrealistic confidence.
“What’s really great about her is that she’s very fast,” Navarro said. She has a different movement and style of play. It’s hard to not let that influence you and not think, “Okay, I have to do everything at the same speed as her.” ”
Key agrees.
“The biggest reason why she’s so hard to beat is because her movement is so good that if you miss a spot even a little, you have enough time to recover and then the points go back to neutral. I think it’s because I put it away.
“So I think it’s really hard to really get a point advantage. She’s really good at getting people to go a little bit too early.”
And that’s why Swiatek, 23, has already won five Grand Slams, more than any other active player.
For Keyes: Head-to-head record is questionable, but there are nuggets worth investigating. Keys’ only win in the Round of 16 at Cincinnati in 2022 came in very similar circumstances to Melbourne.
“I also love the courts in Cincinnati. The courts are very fast,” Keys said after her three-set victory over Elina Svitolina. “I grew up playing in Cincy, and it was like a day when the ball felt alive, and you could consistently get a little bit forward in front of the point, and you could run under pressure. .”
Advantage, key?
After winning the title in Adelaide, Keys won 10 games in a row, tying the longest winning streak of his career. She is 12-1 on the year, the most wins of any Hologic WTA Tour player. Her 114 wins in Grand Slam matches are the most of any woman in the draw.
“She also likes to play hard and pretty fast,” Swiatek said. “She has that ability, especially on the fast hard courts. She has to be ready for that and be aggressive and be good defensively.”
Another thing working in Keys’ favor is the level of difficulty she had to endure to make it through the draw. Her last three wins were against No. 10 seed Danielle Collins, No. 6 seed Elena Rybakina and No. 28 seed Elina Svitolina.
Swiatek, on the other hand, had a very lucky draw. Before defeating Navarro in the quarterfinals, her highest-ranked opponent was No. 49 Rebekah Slamkova, and her lowest-ranked opponent was Lucky Loser Eva Rhys, No. 128. Navarro has played four consecutive three-set matches since joining the team.
How is Keys a better player than he was in 2015, when he reached the Australian Open semifinals three times?
“I think I played a little smarter,” she said in an on-court interview. “I’ve become a little more fearless.”
The younger Keys may have been aggressive on her serve for match point against Svitolina, but when her coach and husband, Bjorn Fratangelo, called for a kick serve, she complied. And with a safer margin and avoiding the stress of second serves, she continued to close deals.
Another sign of maturity is her recent tendency to choose to receive if she wins the first coin toss.
This version of Keys is also more complete. She was very patient with Svitolina and always tried to move forward. She had an impressive 23 out of 26 net points, which she will need to repeat against Swiatek.
