CNN
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President Donald Trump rarely stops boasting about his “great relationship” with Vladimir Putin.
The skeptical world quickly finds out whether the assumed mindmeld counts anything.
The Russian president is the author of an unprovoked brutal invasion of Ukraine, and on Thursday responded with outdated Moscow fashion to the US plan for an immediate ceasefire, which forced Kiev to support. Putin has created a series of obfuscations and new demands that would not be acceptable to Ukraine. But they may have been designed to seduce the US president, eager to win something like the victory that an armistice represents.
Putin refused to overtured Trump. He called it “great and right” and said he supported it in principle. He cautioned not to alienate the US president, who had already offered a string of concessions to Russia before formal peace talks began, including the understanding that Ukraine had no way to NATO membership.
But Putin’s objections and calls for further debate, including Trump, were attempts to buy time with his military ahead of him, pushing Ukrainian troops out of Russia’s Kursk region.
Putin also questioned the ceasefire and whether Ukraine would be allowed to burn during the halt of the battle in a way that suggests he is already trying to form a final consensus to secure Russian rule. Putin also mentioned the need to tackle the “root cause” of war. This is a code of many Russian grievances, including the existence of Kiev’s democratic government. It also points to the claims that Moscow’s claims are threatened by the expansion of NATO after the Cold War and the desire to have once withdrawn from communist states on the orbit of the Soviet Union, such as Poland and Romania.
As the Russian reaction is out of the classic diplomatic playbook, it usually seeks to inhale the interlocutors and build up fatigued negotiations that allow the Kremlin to pursue strategic goals in the meantime.
The events on Thursday showed how difficult it would be for the Trump administration to move Russia away from its position and to move into serious negotiations in a ceasefire.
Russia’s stalled in stark contrast to Trump’s rush for a valuable breakthrough, as his trade policy caused a slump in the stock market and casts clouds on the economy. “I think we’ll be in a very good shape to get it done, Trump spoke on Thursday in his oval office in an explosion of optimism that listened to reality.
Trump put the best spin on Putin’s response, saying, “I made a very promising statement, but it wasn’t perfect.” He added: “Now we’re going to see if Russia is there or not, it’s going to be a very unfortunate moment for the world.” Trump’s optimism was understandable as he is trying to build momentum for his fledgling diplomatic initiative. But his willingness to ignore the new and troublesome conditions from Putin came in stark contrast to his rage when Ukrainian President Voldimi Zelensky sat in an oval office and tried to explain why he didn’t trust Russia’s words in peace deals without security guarantees.
Retired James Stabridisdad said on Thursday that Russian leaders are betting on a cautious line. “If you put the scale between ‘nyet’, ‘no’ and ‘yes’, he’s in the middle,” he told CNN’s Jim Sait. Stavridis, former NATO’s best alliance commander, said the Russian president would take some punches from Trump, but would not stop him from approaching his own goals.
Trump repeated on Thursday that he frequently refrained from having a sea between the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Those close to the threat are far less optimistic about America’s peace proposal. “I am pessimistic and skeptical of Russia’s intentions and Russia’s willingness to advance just and sustainable peace,” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruez told Isa Soares at CNN International. He said Russia is using its typical “salami” tactics to achieve its strategic goals. That is, by slicing comprehensive political goals and dealing with “groups.”
If Trump builds lasting and sustainable peace in Ukraine, he will bring about great achievements that may be worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize, which he reportedly longs for. More importantly, thousands of lives (Ukrainians and Russians) will be saved. There may also be some truth to the frequent claims of the executive authorities that this president alone has the opportunity to end the war. President Joe Biden effectively assembled the Western Alliance to provide Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and financial aid to save independence, but there was never a trajectory of peace negotiations with Putin, who was banished after the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
Trump may also be eliciting fatigue among many Americans at the expense of his support, but his claim that the US spent $350 billion is a wild exaggeration. And some analysts believe the new administration is saying only what is clear – Ukraine cannot liberate the eastern region captured by Russia and Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014. Furthermore, even among the European governments that sided with Zelensky after Trump’s bullying, there is an agreement that some kind of partition must end the war.
But with an excessive respect for Putin in his first term and his longstanding appeal to the Russian leader, his early praise for the Ukrainian invasion raises doubts about his motivations in his push to quickly end the war. Since his second appointment, the president has had a strong armed Zelensky in his infamous oval office photo shoot, switching official US government sympathy from a victim of a ferocious onslaught to perpetrator Putin. The president has blocked critical US intelligence sharing that supports Ukraine on the battlefield and protects civilians from waves of drone attacks. He also halted US military assistance to force Zelensky to accept his demand for an immediate ceasefire. The US supply and intelligence are flowing again, but the suspension sends a clear message to Zelensky, saying that Trump could end the war on his terms if he wished.
But unlike the Ukrainian leader, now that he has spurred Trump’s conditions, will such pressure endure Putin? After all, the US president has been saying for weeks that he is confident Putin wants to stop the fight. Thursday’s response shows that the Kremlin wants to continue the war, at least for now.
The president has threatened tariffs on Russian imports and bank sanctions this week, which he said would devastate Moscow’s finances, but after three years of effort to cut Russia from the global economy, business interaction between IT and the US is minimal. Moscow established a channel through China to support the wartime economy.
Trump declined to say leverage he could withstand Putin that could work on Thursday. However, since the president reclaimed the White House, it was clear that he saw Ukraine as a stepping stone on his way to a restored superpower relationship with Russia. For example, the president is asking for Moscow to return to a group of seven. The Rich Nations Club was known as the G8 until Russia was kicked out after robbing Crimea. He appears to be barely able to wait for the opportunity to hold a direct summit with Putin, which will restore the position of Russian leadership on the world stage. And Trump’s expansionist rhetoric about folding Canada and Greenland into the US reminds us of Putin’s justification for the Ukrainian invasion. So it may come when the incentive for a broader relationship with Washington will convince Putin that it is time to shelve his obsession with Ukraine for a moment.
In Trump’s first term there was ramp-extensive speculation as to whether he was compromised by Russia. Why Moscow intervened in the 2016 election to help him, as evaluated by the US intelligence agency. And why did he praise Putin so much?
The roots of Trump’s obsession remain unknown, but the claim that he is a Moscow property has never been proven and appears to be far away.
However, in his second term, Trump attacked longtime US allies, blaming Zelensky on the war rather than the Russian leader who started it.
So, traditional US foreign policy experts and government are worried about what the answer will be if Putin asks Trump to help him drive Zelensky away as a condition of the peace deal, especially as the US president has falsely suggested that the Ukrainian leader caught up in his first blast each is the Dictator. And how will the president respond if the Russians call him to withdraw Eastern Europe’s NATO troops to address what Putin calls the “root cause” of the Ukrainian conflict?
The question is whether Trump is negotiating with Putin or is he a Russian leader manipulating him?
