After Brussels’ Defense Secretary Pete Hegses’ “rookie miss,” Vice President JD Vance threw the insults and invasion of German elections at the Munich Security Conference, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio became a Russian counterpart. “Peace negotiations” in Riyadh transported to Sergie Lavrov, and finally, and most terrible, President Donald Trump’s old Ukrainian European leaders, themselves in a war that “never began” defended and came to realize that after 80 years of Atlantic Alliance, the United States has become a reckless and unreliable strategic partner.
For Europe, the message from Washington is “one of the last calls to wake up.” I said At the end of Munich Pau Wo, former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsberghis. “If this doesn’t wake up (we), someone might declare that the patient is actually dead. It must be worthy of his (our) freedom.”
Landsbergis frustration is common in Eastern Europe. The frontline states from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea have been warned by Russia’s rescue since the day President Putin came to power in the Kremlin. But the traditional Western European powers, especially Germany, are lethargic accordingly, taking all the talk and small actions. On Sunday in Munich, the Ministers of the European Union met to digest what they just heard. On Monday, Rubio and Lavrov were winging towards Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukrainian sculptures. With no Kiev or European representatives, the European heads of state rushed to convene in Paris, and the Trump administration attacked. But beyond its promise to increase future defence spending, it suggests that European troops could become available as peacekeepers in the case of Ukrainian deals. This was the mission that Hegseth announced that the US did not want a part of it, and there were no specific policies from the session.
But for now, let’s assume that European patients are finally hearing the alarm and are willing to leave their bed. What can Yop do without the US? Six steps come to mind.
“The first, the best, the widest judgment act,” Croiswitz It reminds us“It’s about establishing… the war they are on. It’s not wrong or try to change it, nor is it alien to its nature.” This is the most common for Europeans. It may be a difficult part. It lived under the umbrella of American power for a very long time. Venus must now be considered Mars. The nature of the Ukrainian War comes from Russia’s longing for the lost empire. Putin is as effective as the cause and is part of a bigger puzzle.
This means there is no “peace” to maintain, even if a temporary halt of hostility is negotiated. Like past bids for the hegemony of the European continent, by Habsburg, Bourbon, Napoleon’s France, or Wilhemin and Nazi Germans – Russian ambitions, whether emperor, Stalinist or Putinist, the nature of the regime It is born from. Europe must recreate the kind of grand alliance that overcame the desire for a “universal monarchy” of the 18th and 19th centuries.
Secondly, Ukraine is just one front in the larger Russian conflict, but it is the central front and the most pressing front. If Ukraine overruns, this loss could prove fatal in most of Eastern Europe, thus increasing the European security warrant. “No US support,” Zelensky I warned Above Meet the press This past weekend, “We have a lower chance of survival.” Europeans must act quickly and decisively to prove the Ukrainian president wrong.
Third, Europe needs to demonstrate some degree of strategic and military risk that is against its nature and that has become all. To take just one example, consider the case of the Taurus cruise missile, a weapon designed by Germany and Sweden, which has been demanding for years by the Ukrainians. It ranges over 300 miles, has sophisticated internal navigation and is resistant to Russian electronic warfare. It is a system and a powerful warhead, and becomes something like the ammunition needed by Ukrainians to hit high-level headquarters, distant Russian targets like communication. Nodes, energy infrastructure, etc. German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz refused to provide Ukrainian demands for Taurus, fearing a blow from Moscow. However, Scholz also knows that Germany has only 600 of these missiles, many of which require maintenance, renovation and upgrades. The next generation of Taurus will not serve until 2028 or later. In short, this is the state of European military power. To begin intervening for the US, European countries have to wager most of the small stack of military chips on Ukrainian roulette.
Fourth, we need to throw a large amount of euros into both restructuring and complementing the poor European defence industry. Historically, European weapons are superior, sometimes better than the American system. However, the continent has, in relative terms, adopted the “peace dividend” of US sales over the past 30 years. And, even if the Trump administration is pleased, it is clear that the American industry, which can supply the rapid re-arming that Europe needs, cannot once again become a democratic arsenal. It is no surprise that Poland has achieved its target in a timely manner by signing a contract with Korean companies (tanks and how shellguns) rather than the US, in the midst of robust modernization and expansion of its military. . Even if much of Ukraine’s current ability to maintain independence must be at risk, Europe must restructure its own industry while making global shopping. And even deeper, Asian and European allies are trying to try and create a “defense of democracy” industrial coalition that inoculates them against the US withdrawal.
Fifth, Europe must create a long-standing “European Army.” More likely than replenished weapons and tactical capabilities and capabilities, Europe’s biggest military debilitating forces, command, control or maintain large formations and implement campaign-level operations. , essentially, it’s not possible to come up with durable continental security strategies. Napoleon’s victory was less from a larger battalion than the Agile Command, with synchronized manipulation by talented field marshals. Even in the conflicts in the Balkans and Afghanistan, where allied generals were nominally commanding NATO or Allied forces, it was truly the face of the Allied powers portraying American operations.
Finally, and perhaps the most unsettling thing about world politics is that Europe needs nuclear deterrent. It’s not just British submarines and France DESUSIASIONhowever, it can protect the “Eastern Front” including German and Polish spokes, umbrellas in central and Eastern European powers, and Ukraine. Because in addition to casting the European drift in the traditional military sense, the Trump administration has it. Except to undoing (A deterrence strategy extended since 1945 is in place. Our Asian allies face similar dilemmas as well as South Korea and Australia. Geopolitical fragmentation is the norm. This is an incentive for.
The European patients are not dead, but they must learn to live quickly without American life support. As with Moscow, we are fortunate to be economically, demographically and strategically bedridden, facing an inherently weak and poor enemy in Russia. Ukrainians have shown that fear of Russian rule is a powerful motive, at least in Eastern Europe. Perhaps their minds will infect their neighbors west in these 11 hours and dark times, and they will prove they deserve their freedom. Perhaps that would be a beacon for Americans too.
