After 1,000 days of grueling war, Russia pushes deeper into Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) – When Russian tanks entered Ukraine February 2022conventional wisdom was that the capital, Kiev, would fall quickly and that the rest of the country would not hold out long against a much larger enemy.

Instead, the story is It collapsed immediately. The Ukrainian military has proven that with sufficient support from the West, it can at least prevent defeat, if not completely dislodge and slow the advance of Russian forces.

But nearly three years later, the outlook is once again bleak. Russia is expending vast amounts of weapons and lives to steadily gain a small but steady share of the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Meanwhile, Ukraine minimized losses, maintained morale and persuade allies More military aid could turn the tide.

As this brutal war of attrition intensifies toward its 1,000th day, neither side appears keen to negotiate. President-elect Donald Trump said: He will be able to end the war quickly.However, it’s unclear how or in whom that will turn out in his favor.

This appears to be driving Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine, said Phillips O’Brien, a strategic studies professor at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. Trump has said he may try to force an end to the war by cutting off arms supplies to Ukraine.

“If President Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a cease-fire freezes the conflict, Russia wants to secure as much territory as possible now,” O’Brien said.

For Ukraine, the key to a ceasefire will be assurances from the West that Russia will not allow another invasion in the future. Otherwise, O’Brien said, “a ceasefire is a recipe for continued instability in Europe.”

Russia is making slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine

In the first year of the war, Ukraine lost a huge amount of territory, but it also won a notable victory. They resisted a much larger enemy with superior air power and regained some land in order to survive as an independent nation. A bold counterattackgiving the weak and their wealthy allies the confidence to continue the fight.

The second year was interrupted by the devastating disaster in Ukraine loss of bahmut And as that counterattack failed, the troops essentially fought to a halt along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front. Towards the end of the year, the US Congress postponed approval of the bill. $61 billion package of aid to weaponseconomic and humanitarian assistance.

Ukraine’s ammunition was dwindling and the outlook worsened significantly as the war entered its third year. In February 2024, Avdiivka fell. After months of airstrikes by Russia using highly destructive Soviet-era bombs with modified navigation systems.

The fall of Avdiivka left a huge gap in Ukraine’s defenses. Then, when Russia launched an attack, Kharkiv, a city in the northeast; The Ukrainian army further expanded.

A bright spot for Ukraine came in August when it launched a surprise invasion of Russia. It spanned hundreds of square kilometers and continues to this day. Kursk region. This could be a key trump card in any ceasefire talks, but it has not prevented Russian forces from seizing more land in eastern Ukraine.

Justin Crump, head of British strategic advisory firm Civiline, said: “The Russians have paid a very high price to continue to advance, but they are risking their lives to gain a few more meters of territory every day.” I’m going to pay the price.”

According to estimates, tens of thousands of soldiers from both countries have been killed since the war began in 2022, and the United Nations says at least 11,700 Ukrainians have been killed. Civilians were killed.

Russia’s land acquisition in 2024 is about 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles), less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, but it has had a psychological impact.

As Ukraine retreats, “we are now returning to a period reminiscent of the first months (of the war),” said Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the CBA Initiative Center in Kyiv. “This strengthens Russia’s position – not militarily, but morale.”

In a war of attrition, both sides need to seek external resources.

To continue the war machine, Russia is looking to allies like Ukraine for help.

Iran supplies drones to Russia Probably a missile And North Korea sent ammunition and even military, They are being sent to the Kursk region of Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this year that 700,000 troops were fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say Putin needs more troops to accelerate Russia’s advance, but is unlikely to mobilize more troops because it could stoke domestic discontent. It shows a point of view.

Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk is another complicating factor for Putin and could be used as a bargaining chip in future ceasefire talks.

Colonel Yevn Karas, the commander of the Ukrainian military in Kursk, said that although the fighting inside Russia is very dynamic, he believes it is effective in diverting Russia’s attention and resources.

“Even if the front line creeps back, the enemy will be severely attrited,” Karas said.

Ukraine asked Western countries to: long range missile And the firing on an air base deep in Russia was celebrated. But allies have so far been wary and resisting. rising tension with nuclear-armed Russia.

The United States has provided more than $64 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the war began 1,000 days ago. Soldiers worry about what will happen without continued American support.

“Courage, heroism and spirit are not enough,” said a Ukrainian soldier in the eastern region of Donetsk, who spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with military regulations.

The soldier estimated that Russian infantry outnumbered Ukrainian troops 10 to 1 in the area where he was stationed. As the war drags on and the death toll rises, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to keep his troops replenished.

The United States will play a key role in determining the next direction of the war

What direction the war takes next depends largely on how the incoming Trump administration acts.

President Trump has touted his good relationship with President Vladimir Putin, called the Russian leader’s invasion of Ukraine “pretty smart,” and repeatedly criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine.

Trump twice in his only campaign debate with Vice President Kamala Harris refused to answer directly The question of whether it wanted Ukraine to win raised concerns that Kiev could be forced to accept less favorable terms in any negotiations.

Without security from the West, Ukraine could be vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Analysts said a ceasefire based on the current state of the battlefield would set a dangerous precedent, implying that Europe’s borders could be seized by military action, something that It hasn’t happened since World War II.

“This will also get a lot of attention in countries like China and India,” said Richard Connolly, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They could present it as a strategic defeat not only for Ukraine but also for the West.”

As another winter of war approaches, Ukrainian soldiers say they remain resolute.

“We are working hard and doing everything in our power. We will not surrender,” said the chief of staff of a battalion in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. “The most important thing now is to not lose any more land.”

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Associated Press journalist Volodymyr Yurchuk contributed to this report.