A very early look at the 2025 Cubs roster, payroll and luxury tax

Coming up soon, I’m going to begin my usual “Cubs free agent target” series.

In the meantime, it’s time for our usual look at the Cubs’ 2025 roster, payroll and luxury tax as they stand just a couple of days into the 2024-25 free agent season.

Before we get to the Cubs numbers and analysis, I wanted to point out a couple of small moves made by other teams that could be the “canary in the coal mine” for this winter’s free-agent season.

These are useful players who aren’t making all that much money in the current market.

What do these two teams have in common?

They are both teams whose TV rights are held by Diamond Sports, currently in bankruptcy. As I wrote here last month, there is now considerable uncertainty regarding the rights for the Diamond Sports teams and what sorts of payments those teams will get for televising games in 2025. Thus, they appear to be trying to snip and nip at small payroll payments to try to adjust for this. This is exactly what the Twins did last year, as I noted last November. The Twins’ payroll dropped from about $156 million in 2023 to about $130 million in 2024.

These might not be the only teams doing this sort of thing this offseason.

The Cubs, obviously, are not part of this Diamond Sports bankruptcy and so are not affected by this — yet. Eventually all teams are going to have to reckon with reduced payments for local broadcasts as they migrate from cable/satellite to streaming.

As you can see, by this estimate the Cubs have quite a bit of room under the first luxury tax level, nearly $40 million. Note: The numbers listed above for arb-eligible players are from this article. These numbers will obviously be adjusted as we get into non-tenders, waiver claims and signings, so we’ll have another post like this in a few weeks.

So what will the Cubs do? As always, I asked BCBer The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street to put together his usual analysis of the Cubs payroll situation. The rest of this post is his.

The 2025 Cubs Roster: A Fresh Set of Eyes Has Some Thoughts

FIRST, A WORD ON 2024 SPENDING: The Cubs spent all that money on a manager, but tried to hold the line on the luxury tax last season, despite starting last offseason within spitting distance of the tax threshold. Then they did the stupidest thing possible by just leaking over the tax line. Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the 2024 Cubs a mere $2,781,243 past the threshold, which means Tom Ricketts will need to cut a check to MLB for… a bit over $550,000 in tax penalty.

But there are non-tax penalties involved as well. For example:

“Any team that is over the luxury tax threshold and signs a Major League free agent that has rejected a qualifying offer will lose $1 million from their international (IFA) signing pool in the following signing period. A team that is not over the luxury tax would only forfeit $500,000 of its signing pool in the subsequent period.” (MLB.com)

There is also the provision where the tax rates increase for spending past the threshold for consecutive seasons, and the rates increase further for paying tax in a third (or more) straight season.

There were good reasons to not spend into the tax until you really mean it.

TOP LINE: But a funny thing happened on the way to the 2025 budget. The new manager, having taken in around 10½ months of his new organization and having finished just out of the playoffs in the last 10 days or so of the season, set a higher bar:

“We should try to be building 90-win teams here,” Counsell said. “That’s what you have to do; that’s the playoff standard. That’s what you’ve got to get to be safely in the playoffs, safely in the tournament. So from that perspective, we’ve got a ways to go.” (Chicago Sun-Times)

This was a change from a team, having won a World Series in 2016, that gradually lowered their standards from the “World-class organization and perennial championship contenders” talked up by new ownership in 2009… to a franchise that valued its “financial flexibility” and talked of being a playoff contender most every year. In other words, shoot for 85 wins and hope to at least get in as a wild card.

So what’s it gonna be, Jed… what’s it gonna be? (Meat Loaf, bowdlerized)

Since the end of the World Series and with Monday’s restoration of 60-day injured list players to the regular 40-man roster, we now have some clarification on what the Cubs start this offseason with.

The Cubs, as expected, bought out their end of Drew Smyly’s $10 million mutual option for $2.5 million.

It’s also a lock that Hoyer will buy out (non-roster player) David Bote’s $7 million club option for $1 million.

Then, in a small upset, Cody Bellinger opted-back-in with the Cubs for 2025. That gives the ballclub extra coverage over all outfield positions and first base for what isn’t too hard to project at 3-4 WAR. Not a great bargain, but great depth for a team that suffered with a weak bench most all of last season.

Kyle Hendricks and Jorge López have become free agents. Christian Bethancourt was among the players waived this week (he cleared and is now also a free agent), which means the Cubs currently have just one catcher on the 40-man roster — so that obviously needs to be addressed this winter.

The 40-man roster currently stands full, at 40 players.

Current Player Payroll:

(Note, these figures are for each player’s ‘cap hit’, the charge against the Cubs’ luxury tax spending level. The base luxury tax threshold rises to $241,000,000 for the 2024 season.)

Players with Guaranteed Contracts (7):

Bellinger $26,666,667
Swanson $25,285,714
Happ $20,333,333
Suzuki $17,000,000
Taillon $17,000,000
Imanaga $13,250,000
Hoerner $11,666,667

Bote (buyout) $1,000,000
Smyly (buyout) $2,500,000

============TOTAL $134,702,381============

Arbitration Players (10, with 1 headed for the 60-day IL when it reopens – MLBTR estimates):

Paredes $6,900,000 – (0 options left)
Steele $6,400,000 – (0)
Wisdom $3,000,000 – (1)
Tauchman $2,900,000 – (0)
Alzolay $2,300,000 – (0) (60-Day IL)
Madrigal $1,900,000** – (2)
Pearson $1,400,000 – (1)
Wingenter $1,400,000* – (0)
Merryweather $1,300,000 – (0)
Thompson $1,000,000 – (0)

* Note that in my initial roster selection, Trey Wingenter would need to be cut/non-tendered, as he isn’t on my 26-man roster, and has no options remaining.

**Until we get further clarity from Hoyer & Co., I have Nick Madrigal optioned to Iowa. Though it could be more likely to non-tender a player rather than pay him $2 million to be injury depth in Des Moines.

There’s also a discussion to be had about do you want to guarantee money to players out of options, who might not last the season on the 26-man roster:

Will Mike Tauchman have a spot all year, or will Kevin Alcántara or Owen Caissie push him off the team at some point?
Do you want more flexibility for the Des Moines Shuttle, and thus are relievers like Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson less useful on a 26-man roster they can’t be optioned off of?

============TOTAL $28,500,000============

(Note: The MLB minimum salary for 2024 rises to $760,000.)

Pre-Arb Players expected to make the 26-man roster (11):

Amaya $780,000 – (0 options left)
Assad $770,000 – (2)
Brown $762,000 – (2)
Busch $764,000 – (2)
Crow-Armstrong $764,000 – (2)
Hodge $762,000 – (2)
Mastrobuoni $768,000 – (1)
Miller $763,000 – (0)
Palencia $761,000 – (2)
Wesneski $765,000 – (1)
Wicks $765,000 – (3)

===========TOTAL $8,424,000===========

Pre-Arb Players expected to start in the minors (14):

Alcantara – (2 options left)
Arias – (2)
Canario – (0, meaning he should be a prime trade candidate — and soon)
Davis – (1)
Hollowell – (2)
Kilian – (1)
Little – (2)
Madrigal – (2)
Mervis – (1)
Neely – (2)
Roberts – (2)
Vázquez – (2)
Wingenter – (0, meaning I believe he is holding a roster spot until it is needed via trade, or free agent signing)
Zastryzny – (0, meaning I believe he is a ‘waiver wire hot potato’ player)

===========

Other Expenses:

40-man roster players in minors $2,600,000
Pension payments & sundry expenses $17,500,000
Cubs’ share of pre-arb bonus pool $1,666,667

(Reserve withheld for trades/buffer)¹ $5,000,000
(Reserve for 60-day IL replacements) ² $3,040,000

============TOTAL $29,806,667============

GRAND TOTAL FOR CAP PURPOSES $201,433,048

LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD $241,000,000

CUBS START UNDER THE TAX BY $39,566,952

¹- Optional expense, but some amount figures to be held back from wherever Tom Ricketts sets the baseball budget.
² – Estimating four seasons’ worth of MLB minimum players for eight 60-day IL stints of indeterminate length. For example, Alzolay (TJS in August) could be out most of, or all of the 2025 season.

ADJUSTED FOR ACTUAL PAYROLL EXPENDITURES IN 2025

GRAND TOTAL IN CASH OUTLAY $208,480,667

(This figure includes adding $7,047,619 in adjustments between contract payouts and cap valuations.)

Current projected 26-man roster – Again, there are currently 40 players on the 40-man roster.

OF (5): Happ – PCA – Suzuki – Bellinger – Tauchman

IF (6): Paredes – Swanson – Hoerner – Busch – Wisdom – Mastrobuoni..

C (1+): Amaya – TBD

SP (5): Imanaga – Taillon – Steele – Assad – Wicks

RP (8): Hodge – Miller – Brown – Pearson – Wesneski – Thompson – Merryweather – Palencia

(Note: All relievers on this list can ride the Shuttle in 2025 except Miller, Thompson, and Merryweather.)

2025 60-Day IL (1): Alzolay

40 man position players in minors (6) – Kevin Alcantara, Alexander Canario, Brennen Davis, Nick Madrigal, Matt Mervis, Luis Vázquez.

40 man pitchers in minors (8) – Michael Arias, Gavin Hollowell, Caleb Kilian, Luke Little, Jack Neely, Ethan Roberts, Trey Wingenter, Rob Zastryzny

Notable non-roster players in minors – Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, Pablo Aliendo, Cade Horton

BOTTOM LINE: So in a season where the Cubs might be the last of eight teams who spent luxury tax last season, it seems like Craig Counsell has thrown down the gauntlet. This winter — where the talk is that the priorities may be another playoff-caliber starting pitcher, and an offensive upgrade at starting catcher — the question is: Will ownership and the front office rise to the challenge?

This franchise has f…iddled around since last winning a playoff series in 2017, now it’s time to find out.

From the team that was third in baseball revenue in 2023 (only $43 million behind the mighty Dodgers, per Forbes), but just ninth in baseball payroll spending in 2024 (per Cot’s Contracts).