The vote of no confidence in French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is a critical moment for Marine Le Pen.
As head of France’s far-right National Rally, this could be her best chance to seize power.
Before she decided to push for Michel Barnier’s ouster, she said she was not the “master of the clock” – the one who set the agenda.
But that may be exactly what she does by bringing down Emmanuel Macron’s second government after winning a second presidential term in 2022.
Le Pen appears to be gaining the upper hand as her presidency looks increasingly weakened.
However, this situation is not without great risks for her as well.
Le Pen has been playing a long-awaited role as leader of the National Rally for years. She may be seductively close to power now, but she has a big choice to make.
Armin Steinbach, a professor at HEC Business School in Paris, said pushing for a no-confidence motion “carries considerable risks, because people now wonder if she is really acting in the country’s interest.” , or whether she is acting in her own personal interest.”
“What is clear is that this is not about Barnier…It is that she is trying to overthrow and undermine Macron, obviously because of her personal ambition to become the next president. ,” he told the BBC.
Le Pen has long sought to “normalize” the National Rally (RN) in the eyes of the French public, rebranding it from her father’s former National Front six years ago.
A few months ago, snap elections were held in France, and the RN came in first place with 32% of the vote. Even if she only finished third in the runoff, her mission seemed nearly complete.
With 2024 looming, she opposes the 2025 budget, which aims to bring France’s budget deficit down from 6%, and hopes French voters believe she is acting in the national interest of bringing down a weakened government. I’m betting on whether they will consider it. A country’s output, or GDP.
Although Mr. Barnier had already agreed to some of his demands on social security, Mr. Le Pen decided that this was not enough.
For Le Pen, who supports the left-wing no-confidence motion, there are not only real economic risks for France, but also real political risks.
Mr Barnier, who has been in office for just three months, has urged parliamentarians to act in France’s greater interests, but Mr Le Pen’s party leader Jourdan Bardera says he is employing a “strategy of fear”. he accused.
Ms. Le Pen’s colleagues are sensing Mr. Macron’s potential downfall.
RN advisor Philippe Olivier told newspaper Le Monde that the president is “the fallen monarch of the republic, marching with his shirt off and a rope around his neck until the next (parliament) dissolution”. .
France is currently in a political deadlock due to President Macron’s unexpected decision to hold early parliamentary elections in June.
Ms Le Pen’s claim was that Mr Barnier had not sufficiently included her demands in his budget, while Mr Barnier said his budget was not “aimed at pleasing” and that Mr Le Pen During negotiations with Le Pen, he accused him of “trying to engage in a kind of bidding war.” negotiation.
In the words of Vincent Tremoret de Villers, deputy editor of Le Figaro newspaper, the RN leadership could plunge France into “a great political and financial unknown.”
In her eyes, Macron is responsible for France’s economic state, but she doesn’t want to be labeled as the politician who threw France into economic turmoil.
“This is the result of seven years of amateurism and incredible fluctuations in finances,” she said.
Many French voters want Macron to step down before his term ends in 2027. Recent polls show that at least 62% of voters think the president should resign if Barnier’s government collapses.
Even if Le Pen hasn’t done so already, a National Rally push for it would likely bring her in line with a wide range of voters.
But critics believe the RN leader has other issues going on behind the scenes that may be influencing her judgment.
On March 31, a French court is scheduled to issue a verdict in a long-running case against her and other party officials for allegedly misusing European Parliament funds.
Prosecutors are seeking to send her to prison and ban her from public office for five years.
If that happens, her hopes of winning the presidency will be dashed.
For Marine Le Pen, this moment may really be now, or it may never come.
She ran for the top position three times. If she can make a fourth run in the coming months, she has a good chance of winning.
Jordan Bardera is already considered more popular than Le Pen, both inside and outside the National Assembly, and the 29-year-old party leader is considered the frontrunner to run in 2027 if Macron successfully completes his term. It will be.
Not since 1962 has a French government been defeated by a vote of no confidence.
If this is misunderstood, Le Pen may not be allowed the next time France goes to the polls.
