NEWPORT COAST, Calif. — California may lean strongly Democratic, but Republicans believe voters in the sunny Southern California suburbs are tired of Democrats’ business as usual.
Scott Baugh is running for an open seat in a purple district in Orange County, and Matt Gunderson is challenging Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in a suburban area that stretches from Orange to San Diego counties.
They hope they can attract moderate voters by highlighting issues such as California’s rampant retail crime, inflation and the border.
California Assembly candidate Scott Baugh stands with a woman in a field on Aug. 17 while campaigning in Orange County. Photo courtesy of Scott Baugh’s campaign.
The Republican National Congressional Committee has labeled both candidates “young” and plans to back their elections. The Cook Political Report has labeled both districts as battlegrounds, with Baugh’s district as “Strongly Democratic” and Gunderson’s district as “Strongly Democratic.”
“California has historically been the land of opportunity, the land of dreams,” Baugh, a former state legislator, told The Post in an interview before a fundraiser last week.
“Some of that has been tarnished by the progressive left in this state. This is still the most beautiful part of the country. It has the best climate in the country, and we’re making changes here so we can thrive and enjoy prosperity again.”
Gunderson’s strategy is to take one of the Democrats’ biggest issues off the table. “I’m a pro-abortion Republican. I believe abortion should be safe, legal and rare,” he told The Post.
“Once we remove that issue from the Democratic playbook, we can have serious conversations about border security. We can have serious conversations about dealing with inflation and the cost of living,” he said.
Matt Gunderson has made the border crisis a central issue in his campaign. Photo courtesy of the Matt Gunderson campaign.
“We can have serious discussions about public safety, education and parental rights because we’re not tied to one issue that’s not going to change in California anyway.”
Wins in these districts could help Republicans maintain or expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, similar to how victories in Democratic-majority New York secured Republican control of the House in 2022.
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Baugh is running against Democratic state Sen. Dave Min for the 47th Congressional District seat being vacated when Rep. Katie Porter ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate.
Baugh lost to Porter by less than 10,000 votes in the 2022 election, but believes the race is completely different this time around, citing party registration numbers and fundraising that are much closer than last time.
According to the June 30 filing, Bow had $2.277 million in cash on hand, while Minh had $1.525 million.
Gunderson will face off against Rep. Mike Levin. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Gunderson, who founded three luxury car dealerships, is seeking to defeat Levin, a two-term congressman.
Issues like the border, the economy and crime are at the forefront of California’s races, as they are in other competitive elections across the country.
On border policy, they said immigration reform is necessary, but that border security is the top priority.
“I say to people: ‘Do we need comprehensive immigration reform? Absolutely, but you can’t talk about kitchen remodels when your house is on fire,'” Gunderson said.
Gunderson visits the border wall in Southern California on May 29, 2024. Photo courtesy of Matt Gunderson’s campaign.
“A bipartisan border solution was not a border solution,” he added, referring to the widely debated but failed Senate bill.
“The immediate solution would be an executive order. There are a few things that could be done — all the things Biden repealed — and if we do those then we also need a legislative solution. The bottom line is that we don’t really need new laws to stop illegal immigration. What we need is a president willing to enforce existing laws — an executive branch,” Baugh said.
On crime, Baugh noted that many of the high-end shopping centres in his district have been affected.
Baugh will face Democratic state Sen. Dave Min in the 47th Congressional District. Associated Press Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File
“This is a very affluent neighborhood and they’re robbing all the major malls, including South Coast Plaza Mall, the largest shopping mall in the world by sales. Spectrum in Irvine is in this neighborhood, Fashion Island in Newport is in this neighborhood,” he said.
“People are starting to realize … open borders and a lack of enforcement of criminal laws are exacerbating crime.”
California politics may not be the same as it was under Gov. Ronald Reagan, but many Republicans still believe the pendulum could one day swing the other way.
“I think the reason people are staying is because there is a light at the end of the tunnel,” Gunderson said, empathizing with the millions of residents who have left in recent years in what has been called the “California exodus.”
“If you think the pendulum has swung too far to the left, now is your opportunity to ride that pendulum back to the center or center-right, where the hearts of many people in this district and in California are. This whole notion of, ‘Do you want to go out or do you want to stay and fight?'” he added.
Still, Democrats remain confident they can hold onto the two seats at stake. In a memo, the DCCC called Baugh “dangerously radical and out of touch with reality” and Gunderson “an endorsement of harmful Republican policies that favor the ultra-wealthy.”
