A water tornado occurred near Florida in 1969. Image from Wiki Commons.
A water tornado is a swirling column of air and mist that occurs over a large body of water. They can occur in a variety of conditions, from calm weather to severe storms. However, while water tornadoes in fair weather are generally less dangerous, tornado-like water tornadoes can be very destructive. Water tornadoes can produce strong winds, turbulent seas, and cause significant damage to ships in their path.
So, did such a phenomenon sink Bayesians?
The Baysian sank off the coast of Sicily in the early hours of August 19, 2024. The vessel was owned by British businessman Mike Lynch, who was reportedly celebrating his acquittal on fraud charges. It sank rapidly while anchored during a storm. Witnesses said the yacht was hit by a water tornado known as a “black swan.”
What is a Waterspout?
A water tornado is essentially a tornado that forms over a body of water. Like land tornadoes, water tornadoes consist of a rapidly rotating column of air, but unlike tornadoes, they form over water and are therefore less destructive. Contrary to the name, water tornadoes do not suck water up from the surface of an ocean or lake. Instead, the visible funnel is made of water droplets formed by condensation, much like cloud condensation.
Water tornadoes can occur almost anywhere there is a large body of water and the right atmospheric conditions. They are most common in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the waters off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas, where warm water temperatures and moist air create ideal conditions. However, they can also occur in cooler climates, such as the Great Lakes and the Baltic Sea.
On September 9, 1999, a cluster of four water tornadoes was spotted over Lake Huron.
There are two main types: clear-air waterspout tornadoes and tornado-induced waterspout tornadoes. Though they look similar, their formation process and potential impacts are very different.
Fair-weather waterspouts usually form along the flat bases of cumulus clouds and tend to occur in relatively calm conditions. They generally pose a low risk, primarily affecting small craft and creating dramatic spectacles for coastal bystanders. These waterspouts tend to be weaker and shorter in duration than their more violent counterparts, and therefore pose less of a threat.
Tornado-type water tornadoes, on the other hand, are much more dangerous and share many characteristics with land tornadoes. These water tornadoes form during severe thunderstorms and can form over water or move from land to the ocean. According to the National Ocean Service, tornado-type water tornadoes often occur in conjunction with severe weather conditions. Tornado-type water tornadoes are accompanied by high winds, rough seas, large hail, and frequent lightning, which can be devastating to any vessels in their path.
Black Swan event?
A tornado-like waterspout tornado occurred off the coast of Punta Gorda, Florida, during a severe thunderstorm on July 15, 2005. Image from Wikipedia.
The sinking of the Bayesian yacht has been described by some as a “black swan” event — a rare, unpredictable occurrence with catastrophic consequences, a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book — which refers to rare but significant occurrences that go beyond normal expectations, have major impacts, and are often rationalized with hindsight after the fact.
Tornado formation can be detected by radar, but information about their strength is not available until the tornado has formed. However, water tornadoes can elude radar detection due to their short duration. This event occurred at night, when no one was likely monitoring radar.
Luca Mercari, a leading Italian climatologist, said the crew should have paid attention to weather warnings.
“I don’t know if anyone on board was watching the radar,” he told The Telegraph. “If I was on board, I would have woken everyone at the first sign of a thunderstorm and we would have put on life jackets and stayed alert until the storm had passed.”
Matthew Shank, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told The Times that no serious warning had been given but that it had been unexpected.
“We checked the forecast and there was nothing there except thunder. There were no visible signs that would lead us to think it was unsafe to anchor there,” he said.
“That water is pretty heavy,” Shank added, “and if that column of water sends a lot of water on board, it could do a lot of damage.”
This sudden accumulation of water combined with the violent rotational force of the current could easily have overwhelmed the yacht and caused it to capsize before the crew and passengers could react.
How water tornadoes form and what happened that day
Tornadoes form in a similar way to tornadoes. They usually form when the updraft (rising warm, moist air) of a thunderstorm interacts with a strong downdraft of cooler air descending from the storm. This interaction creates a column of rotating air that extends downward and becomes a water tornado when it comes into contact with water.
The conditions were right for a waterspout tornado to form. And yet, without hindsight, we don’t know how likely it was that a dangerous waterspout tornado would develop.
“There was a large thunderstorm just north of Sicily, with active lightning, heavy rainfall and very strong features of what are called ‘cold cloud tops’ on satellite imagery,” explained Dr Pete Innes, lecturer in meteorology at the University of Reading. “All these factors combined to create a thunderstorm that could easily produce a water tornado.”
The fact that the accident occurred at night posed an additional hazard: limited visibility would have made it even more difficult for the crew to spot the approaching water tornado in time.
Are water tornadoes dangerous or is this just a freak phenomenon?
About 160 water tornadoes are reported in Europe each year. Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of water tornadoes, but it is unclear to what extent this impact will be.
“Warmer global temperatures due to climate change mean the air gets warmer and can hold more moisture – about 7% more moisture for every 1°C increase in temperature. This will increase the likelihood of thunderstorms, leading to more intense storms and lightning strikes. And heavier downpours will cause localized flash flooding,” notes the Royal Meteorological Society. The same phenomenon may also make water tornadoes more intense.
The yacht appears to be “largely intact” on the ocean floor, with no signs of damage or impact. It appears the vessel was sunk by the overwhelming force of the water tornado.
Ultimately, the Bayesian sinking highlights the unpredictable and dangerous nature of waterspout tornadoes, especially in areas prone to severe weather. Although weather forecasting technology has made great advances, it still has limitations when it comes to predicting rare and extreme events like tornadoes.
Mariners also need to ensure their vessels have the necessary equipment on board to detect and respond to weather threats, including radar systems that can identify severe storms, as well as safety gear such as life jackets and emergency beacons.
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